Post by CWGBuckeyes on Sept 17, 2022 6:29:55 GMT -5
Do you believe in UFOs, astral projections, mental telepathy, ESP, clairvoyance, spirit photography, telekinetic movement, full trance mediums, the Loch Ness monster and the theory of Atlantis?
Ah, if there's a steady paycheck in it, I'll believe anything you say.
uh, no clue on this one. meanwhile, need to get back on track this week.
FRIDAY
1. FLORIDA STATE (2-0)
AT LOUISVILLE (1-1) +2.5
noles had a bye after upsetting lsu, now they head to l'ville where they haven't covered a game since '14. cards come in off a road win at ucf, but they're 4-8 ats of late as home dogs. fwiw, since '00 2-0 teams off a bye are 36-54 ats on the road in game 3. fsu is 0-9 ats as chalk off a dog win, and haven't covered as an acc road fave since '16 (0-6-1 ats). I'll deal the cards.
more later
SATURDAY
2. OKLAHOMA (2-0)
AT NEBRASKA (1-2) +11
88th mtg in this historic rivalry, but just the 2nd since '10. on paper it's hard to see the husker defense, which has been shredded by n'western (528 ttl yds) and georgia southern (642, 406 of that in the air to a team that just transitioning away from the triple option. anyone not believe the sooners are better than either of those teams on offense? ha. that said, will frost's firing be an anchor burying the rest of the season or a burden removed? unl has covered 4 of its last 5 games as a double digit dog, and their last 13 losses, amazingly, have all been by 9/less, including a 23-14 finish in norman last season. it is a step up in competition for ou (wins over utep, kent st), and they're just 3-12 ats of late giving 10+ on the road. shaky nod to nebraska.
3. PURDUE (1-1)
AT SYRACUSE (2-0) PICK
boilers still struggle running the ball, which can make life on the road tough for an offense. really liked what I saw of the 'cuse's opening win over louisville. syracuse.
4. CALIFORNIA (2-0)
AT NOTRE DAME (0-2) -10.5
you don't see a lot of 0-2 teams as double digit favorites over 2-0 opponents, especially when the 0-2 team just lost their starting qb for the season. well, since '90 there's been 23 such scenarios, and the 0-2 is 15-8 ats in those games, 6-1 ats when off a su favorite loss. the irish had covered 8 straight games before last week's marshall shocker, and I think they are pissed. bears are an impressive 7-0 ats getting 10+ outside berkeley, but wins over uc-davis and unlv don't carry enough weight here. notre dame.
5. PENN STATE (2-0)
AT AUBURN (2-0) +3
a year ago the nitts stopped auburn on the 2 yd line, preserving a 28-20 win. but 5 players off that defense are now in the nfl, and I'm still not convinced psu can run the ball effectively, especially vs a very solid tigers front. I also think au will test psu rush defense. all day. penn state is 2-7 ats vs sec opponents, auburn is 10-2 ats as home dogs vs unbeaten foes, and (cfb nerd stat alert) undefeated home dogs who were bowlers the previous season are 45-19 ats since '00 vs opponents who allow 13+ pts, 19-2 ats if the foes is unbeaten/off a su/ats win. war eagle.
6. BYU (2-0)
AT OREGON (1-1) -4
here's a trend that applies to both psu and byu in their game vs the ducks; teams who are 2-0 su/ats are just 66-90 ats since 1980 on the road in game 3's. tough draw for the cougars having to go to eugene after a nice double ot win over baylor. byu is 6-2 ats as road dogs of 8/less, uo is 7-1 as home chalk of 8/less and have won 29 straight home ooc matchups, 2nd only to alabama (40). I think more people are remembers oregon destroying eastern washington and forgetting about how they got destroyed vs georgia. brigham young.
7. VANDERBILT (2-1)
AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (1-1) -3
now here is the cfb nerd stat alert of the week; since 2005, the mac has played 59 times vs sec opponents. they've won once. anyone know who it was and who they played? (sorry walt... doing my own trivia here-lol). plus, this is just the 2nd time in those 59 games that a mac team has been favored. the first? miami in '08, -3.5 over vandy. the 'dores won 38-15. I like niu's rocky lombardi at qb but the huskies are just 2-7 ats at home the last 2 years, and that was vs non-sec opponents. the commodoes are an impressive 5-1 ats in away games of late. wrong team favored. vanderbilt.
8. OLE MISS (2-0)
AT GEORGIA TECH (1-1) +16.5
hard to see the undersized ramblin' wreck hanging here, even if the rebels are just 1-5 ats in road openers. tech got outgained by western carolina last week 390-353 (won thanks to being +3 in turnovers). they're 1-8 ats as ooc dogs. ol' miss is 5-1 ats as ooc chalk of 7+. since tech ditched the tough-to-prepare-for triple option offense, they are 11-24-1 ats. mississippi.
9. MISSISSIPPI STATE (2-0)
AT LSU (1-1) +2
for the 1st time in 22 years, the bulldogs are favorites in death valley. caught a little of msu's win at arizona and thought they looked good, especially their qb (rogers?). they also have a huge edge in experienced over the young tigers who'll be starting jayden daniels at qb in his 1st sec game. but that 2-0/road favorite trend I talked about in psu/auburn applies here as well, with a tightener (2-0 su/ats as road chalk in game 3 vs league foes are just 9-29). lsu
10. TEXAS TECH (2-0)
AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-0) -9.5
a lot of people I follow in cfb think the wolfpack can challenge clemson this year in the acc, even w/the squeaker over east carolina a couple weeks ago. devin leary is on nfl draft watch as a 5th yr qb, w/one coach comparing him to josh allen. tech comes in off a double ot win vs houston despite having 3 picks. they'll be facing a better d tomorrow. red raiders are 0-6 ats vs acc of late. state is 13-6 ats as home faves. nc state.
11. UCF (1-0)
AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (1-0) +9.5
ucf is actually 2-0 (wins over s.c. state and l'ville), and fau is 2-1 (wins over charlotte/se louisana and a loss to ohio). but the owls have outgained all 3 opponents. knights have won all 3 mtgs but I think this is close. florida atlantic.
12. MICHIGAN STATE (2-0)
AT WASHINGTON (2-0) -3.5
husky stadium is one of the tougher venues in cfb for visitors, and indiana transfer michael penix has looked very very good leading the uw offense. sparty is 0-8 ats of late vs the pac 12 and washington is 8-4-1 ats at home vs the big 10. msu is yet another 2-0 su/ats team on the road, though their running game w/jalen berger and jarek broussard should keep them in it. but penix is a difference maker when healthy, and right now he is. washington.
13. SMU (2-0)
AT MARYLAND (2-0) -3.5
smu has a good offense, but has been outscored 111-36 the last 3 times they've played big 10 teams. terps have a real good offense, and are 7-2 ats of late vs ooc opponents. total is 73.5... and that could be eclipsed by halftime. turtles outrun the ponies.
14. MIAMI (2-0)
AT TEXAS A&M (1-1) -5
aggies haven't lost back/back homes games since jimbo fisher arrived, I believe. were they look past appy st last week? a&m had just 186 yds of total offense in that 17-14 loss. canes are 5-1 ats as road dogs lately, but 1-4 ats as ooc dogs of 4+. aggies are 12-1 ats as ooc home chalk of 14/less. texas a&m
15. FRESNO STATE (1-1)
AT USC (2-0) -13
how good is usc behind qb transfer caleb williams and wr-transfer jordan addison? pretty good. the defense? jury still out, tho the trojans are +4 in turnover ratio so far. bulldogs lost to oregon st. 35-32 on the final play of the game last week, but are still 6-1 ats in their last 7 vs the pac 12, and 9-1 ats getting 10+. and that's what I'm taking. fresno state.
bonus info: since 1980, cfb faves who are off a win over notre dame where they covered the spread by 17+ are 1-12-1 in their next game. marshall is -17 at bowling green saturday. watch out for the falcons.
You seriously don't know the movie?
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