Post by mscott59 on Sept 25, 2022 9:53:05 GMT -5
9-5?
Week 4
“I don't see why the American taxpayer has to pay for a wedding between these two pagans.”
“They're not pagans, Frank. Everyone's going to be wearing clothes.”
have I ever shared (I think I did way back) interviewing leslie nielsen?
THURSDAY
1. WEST VIRGINIA (1-2)
AT VA. TECH (2-1) +1.5
in '21 the 'eers were up 27-7 before vt rallied late (27-21) but fell short, ending the game on the west virginia 3 yd line. hokies are 7-2 ats at home in this series, 4-0 ats w/revenge. wvu hasn't covered as road chalk since week 4/2018. I'll take va tech's defense to edge out the hillbillies' 500+ yd/game offense.
SATURDAY
2. MARYLAND (3-0)
AT #4 MICHIGAN (3-0) -16.5
for the 1st time this season, um faces a real d-1 opponent, at least offensively. terps are averaging 40 pts and nearly 500 yds/game, albeit vs competition similar to the ugly hats. but maryland's record in this series (0-6 su/ats), vs big 10 lately (1-10 ats), vs top 25 lately (1-10 ats), as big 10 road dogs of 10+ (2-9 ats), plus the wolverines' 8-3 ats record as -10+ home chalk is too much to ignore. michigan.
3. #17 BAYLOR (2-1)
AT IOWA STATE (3-0) -10.5
I think walt meant isu -1.5 here, not -10.5. not sure if you want to change this or not at this point. cyclones are playing w/revenge after a 29-31 loss in waco (isu is 6-2 ats vs baylor w/revenge of late), but they're just 3-9 ats as double digit big 12 favorites. the bears are 12-5-1 ats as road dogs since '18, 16-0 ats as big 12 dogs of 4+ vs foes off back/back su/ats wins. if we keep this at 10.5, I'm definitely on baylor.
4. #5 CLEMSON (3-0)
AT #21 WAKE FOREST (3-0) +7
cu has needed 2nd half surges to achieve comfortable looking final scores vs 3 not so hot (ga tech, furman, la tech) opponents so far. wake won 11 games in '21, but has lost 13 straight in this series. and the tigers' front 4 on d still look imposing. the demon deacons have already allowed 7 sacks in the 1st 3 games vs much weaker teams. with wf averaging just 59 yds/game rushing, I think qb sam hartman may end up in the hospital. clemson is a solid 14-8-1 ats as road chalk, while wake is 10-27 ats as home dogs vs foes off back/back wins. clemson.
5. MINNESOTA (3-0)
AT MICHIGAN STATE (2-1) +2.5
gophers travel for the 1st time after 3 dominating wins over cupcakes. they may not be ranked, but vegas sure has noticed; this lined opened at msu -1.5. I thought I'd find that p.j. fleck's teams have struggled giving points on the big 10 road... not the case (4-1-1 ats as away faves since '19) and they've actually won 10 of the last 12 games they've played since an upset loss to bgsu last season. good running games travel well, and minnesota has one behind a now healthy mohamed ibrahim. plus here's a cfb nerd nugget; week 4 home teams off their 1st loss of the season giving up 35+ pts are 20-39-1 ats vs league opponents. minnesota.
6. NOTRE DAME (1-2)
AT NORTH CAROLINA (3-0) -2
count me among those whose wallet took a hit when the irish had not 1, but 2 4th qtr td's erased, keeping their win over cal to a money-losing 24-17 non-cover. no, I'm not bitter. nd's d slowed down the buckeyes, and now they face unc whose offense can put up big numbers. but the heels' defense is a sieve, a good thing for teams who are struggling on offense like the domes. unc is playing w/double revenge, but they're 0-6 ats as home chalk of 13/less vs .400+ opponents. you'd think mack brown over marcus freeman would be a solid coaching edge, but again I like better defenses. notre dame.
7. #20 FLORIDA (2-1)
AT #11 TENNESSEE (3-0) -11
the nightmares for vol fans in this series have seemed never ending, I bet. uf has won 16 of the last 17 in the series (12-5 ats edge to boot). both have nice quality ooc wins (gators over utah, tennessee beating pitt tho' the panthers lost their starting qb to injuries and the back up played hurt the entire 2nd half). I went back to the late 80s and could not find florida as a double digit dog in this series. b-o-w-o's offense has been dynamite, but last year their d had trouble vs running db's (2 put up 140+ rushing), and I'm wondering if anthony richardson will exploit that. vols win, florida covers.
8. KANSAS STATE (2-1)
AT #6 OKLAHOMA (3-0) -13
I should be forced to venmo harry some $$ thinking the huskers would hang w/ou last week. the 49-14 shellacking were the most points oklahoma has ever scored in lincoln I believe. but I think this is a dangerous game for the sooners. k-state has covered 3 straight, winning 2 in the series, and the wildcats will definitely be the best defense ou has faced so far in '22. ksu is 12-7-1 ats as dogs lately, and their running game (239/game) vs the sooner d (313 yds/10 pts per game allowed) is an attractive matchup. here's the flip side of that earlier cfb nerd nugget; week 4 road teams off a first loss of the season as a favorite are 38-13-1 ats as underdogs. kansas state hangs around in a lower scoring affair.
9. #22 TEXAS (2-1)
AT TEXAS TECH (2-1) +6.5
the horns were hungover for a half vs utsa, after the heartbreak vs alabama, but then awakened for a 41-20 win, piling up 300+ yds on the ground. texas has owned the red raiders since '10 (10-2 su/9-3 ats), putting up 63 and 70 points the last 2 years. I think that a pretty good motivator, because tech outgained nc state last week by nearly 100 yds, but 4 turnovers (1 of them a pick 6) led to a 27-14 loss. tech is also 14-1 ats as home dogs of 4+ off an ats loss. texas tech keeps it interesting. and close.
10. #15 OREGON (2-1)
AT WASHINGTON STATE (3-0) +7
cougars have lost 3 straight to uo, but have covered 10 of the last 12 in the series. ducks are off a nice 41-20 win over byu but they're just 4-9-1 ats in their last 14 pac-12 games while wsu is 6-2 ats as home dogs. they've also caused 7 turnovers, 14 sacks and 31 tfl's so far this year. imho upset alert. washington state.
11. #10 ARKANSAS (3-0)
AT #23 TEXAS A&M (2-1) -2.5
last week miami-fl made 3 trips inside the red zone vs the aggies. 3 times they had to settle for fg's, which was the difference in a 17-9 win. tougher challenge this week vs the hogs' strong run game. last year arkansas ended a 9 game losing streak to a&m, outgaining them by 160 yds in a 20-14 win. but the razorbacks' d has allowed 420 yds/27 pts per game so far. slight lean to texas a&m and the better defense.
12. MARSHALL (2-1)
AT TROY (1-2) +3.5
herd suffered the letdown of all letdowns last week, losing to bowling green in ot a week after a memorable win in south bend, while troy lost on a dramatic hail mary to appy st. marshall is putting up 508 yds/game w/balance... while the trojans are passing well (351/game) but the run game is light (59/game) and the defense has been too (445/game to fbs opponents). mu is 4-2 ats as road chalk of late, and they also qualify for that week 4/off 1st loss/road team trend. marshall.
13. WISCONSIN (2-1)
AT #3 OHIO STATE (3-0) -16.5
bucks are 8-0 su/6-2 ats of late vs the badgers. the home team in the series is on a 5-1-1 ats run. uw is 1-5-1 ats as big 10 dogs of 12+, while tosu is 5-0-1 ats the last 6 yrs in league openers. we'll see if the buckeye defense has improved vs the run, which was the achilles heel in losses to oregon/um a year ago. badgers ran for 260 last week vs new mexico st, but only 174 vs washington state the previous week. ohio state.
14. #7 USC (3-0)
@ OREGON STATE (3-0) +6.5
2 weeks ago oregon st followed up an upset win over boise st w/a 35-32 win at fresno st. last week usc buried that same fresno st team 45-17. so why do I like the beavers? beside the obvious? a year ago osu-nw had their way w/the trojans, and they're improved this year, especially on that talent o-line. the beavers have covered 5 of the last 7 vs usc in corvallis. that usc win over fresno came after the bulldogs' qb was injured early in the 3rd qtr. beavers are 5-2 ats of late as home dogs. caleb williams has met expectations at qb for southern cal, but this one goes down to the wire. oregon state.
15. STANFORD (1-1)
@ #18 WASHINGTON (3-0) -14
was happy to see kalen deboer get the uw job in seattle... this guy went 67-3 w/3 titles as a naia coach, then turned around the offenses of indiana and fresno st as a coordinator. from there he got the head coaching job for the bulldogs where in his first full season went 10-3. he's now 3-0, thanks to a guy he recruited at iu, michael penix, who transferred to the huskies and has been very effective. stanford has been just 7-18 ats in pac 12 games the past 3+ years, including 0-7 su/ats the last 7 games, 3-8 ats as road dogs and 1-6 ats off a bye week. washington
bonus pick: duke +7 over kansas.
“I don't see why the American taxpayer has to pay for a wedding between these two pagans.”
“They're not pagans, Frank. Everyone's going to be wearing clothes.”
have I ever shared (I think I did way back) interviewing leslie nielsen?
THURSDAY
1. WEST VIRGINIA (1-2)
AT VA. TECH (2-1) +1.5
in '21 the 'eers were up 27-7 before vt rallied late (27-21) but fell short, ending the game on the west virginia 3 yd line. hokies are 7-2 ats at home in this series, 4-0 ats w/revenge. wvu hasn't covered as road chalk since week 4/2018. I'll take va tech's defense to edge out the hillbillies' 500+ yd/game offense.
SATURDAY
2. MARYLAND (3-0)
AT #4 MICHIGAN (3-0) -16.5
for the 1st time this season, um faces a real d-1 opponent, at least offensively. terps are averaging 40 pts and nearly 500 yds/game, albeit vs competition similar to the ugly hats. but maryland's record in this series (0-6 su/ats), vs big 10 lately (1-10 ats), vs top 25 lately (1-10 ats), as big 10 road dogs of 10+ (2-9 ats), plus the wolverines' 8-3 ats record as -10+ home chalk is too much to ignore. michigan.
3. #17 BAYLOR (2-1)
AT IOWA STATE (3-0) -10.5
I think walt meant isu -1.5 here, not -10.5. not sure if you want to change this or not at this point. cyclones are playing w/revenge after a 29-31 loss in waco (isu is 6-2 ats vs baylor w/revenge of late), but they're just 3-9 ats as double digit big 12 favorites. the bears are 12-5-1 ats as road dogs since '18, 16-0 ats as big 12 dogs of 4+ vs foes off back/back su/ats wins. if we keep this at 10.5, I'm definitely on baylor.
4. #5 CLEMSON (3-0)
AT #21 WAKE FOREST (3-0) +7
cu has needed 2nd half surges to achieve comfortable looking final scores vs 3 not so hot (ga tech, furman, la tech) opponents so far. wake won 11 games in '21, but has lost 13 straight in this series. and the tigers' front 4 on d still look imposing. the demon deacons have already allowed 7 sacks in the 1st 3 games vs much weaker teams. with wf averaging just 59 yds/game rushing, I think qb sam hartman may end up in the hospital. clemson is a solid 14-8-1 ats as road chalk, while wake is 10-27 ats as home dogs vs foes off back/back wins. clemson.
5. MINNESOTA (3-0)
AT MICHIGAN STATE (2-1) +2.5
gophers travel for the 1st time after 3 dominating wins over cupcakes. they may not be ranked, but vegas sure has noticed; this lined opened at msu -1.5. I thought I'd find that p.j. fleck's teams have struggled giving points on the big 10 road... not the case (4-1-1 ats as away faves since '19) and they've actually won 10 of the last 12 games they've played since an upset loss to bgsu last season. good running games travel well, and minnesota has one behind a now healthy mohamed ibrahim. plus here's a cfb nerd nugget; week 4 home teams off their 1st loss of the season giving up 35+ pts are 20-39-1 ats vs league opponents. minnesota.
6. NOTRE DAME (1-2)
AT NORTH CAROLINA (3-0) -2
count me among those whose wallet took a hit when the irish had not 1, but 2 4th qtr td's erased, keeping their win over cal to a money-losing 24-17 non-cover. no, I'm not bitter. nd's d slowed down the buckeyes, and now they face unc whose offense can put up big numbers. but the heels' defense is a sieve, a good thing for teams who are struggling on offense like the domes. unc is playing w/double revenge, but they're 0-6 ats as home chalk of 13/less vs .400+ opponents. you'd think mack brown over marcus freeman would be a solid coaching edge, but again I like better defenses. notre dame.
7. #20 FLORIDA (2-1)
AT #11 TENNESSEE (3-0) -11
the nightmares for vol fans in this series have seemed never ending, I bet. uf has won 16 of the last 17 in the series (12-5 ats edge to boot). both have nice quality ooc wins (gators over utah, tennessee beating pitt tho' the panthers lost their starting qb to injuries and the back up played hurt the entire 2nd half). I went back to the late 80s and could not find florida as a double digit dog in this series. b-o-w-o's offense has been dynamite, but last year their d had trouble vs running db's (2 put up 140+ rushing), and I'm wondering if anthony richardson will exploit that. vols win, florida covers.
8. KANSAS STATE (2-1)
AT #6 OKLAHOMA (3-0) -13
I should be forced to venmo harry some $$ thinking the huskers would hang w/ou last week. the 49-14 shellacking were the most points oklahoma has ever scored in lincoln I believe. but I think this is a dangerous game for the sooners. k-state has covered 3 straight, winning 2 in the series, and the wildcats will definitely be the best defense ou has faced so far in '22. ksu is 12-7-1 ats as dogs lately, and their running game (239/game) vs the sooner d (313 yds/10 pts per game allowed) is an attractive matchup. here's the flip side of that earlier cfb nerd nugget; week 4 road teams off a first loss of the season as a favorite are 38-13-1 ats as underdogs. kansas state hangs around in a lower scoring affair.
9. #22 TEXAS (2-1)
AT TEXAS TECH (2-1) +6.5
the horns were hungover for a half vs utsa, after the heartbreak vs alabama, but then awakened for a 41-20 win, piling up 300+ yds on the ground. texas has owned the red raiders since '10 (10-2 su/9-3 ats), putting up 63 and 70 points the last 2 years. I think that a pretty good motivator, because tech outgained nc state last week by nearly 100 yds, but 4 turnovers (1 of them a pick 6) led to a 27-14 loss. tech is also 14-1 ats as home dogs of 4+ off an ats loss. texas tech keeps it interesting. and close.
10. #15 OREGON (2-1)
AT WASHINGTON STATE (3-0) +7
cougars have lost 3 straight to uo, but have covered 10 of the last 12 in the series. ducks are off a nice 41-20 win over byu but they're just 4-9-1 ats in their last 14 pac-12 games while wsu is 6-2 ats as home dogs. they've also caused 7 turnovers, 14 sacks and 31 tfl's so far this year. imho upset alert. washington state.
11. #10 ARKANSAS (3-0)
AT #23 TEXAS A&M (2-1) -2.5
last week miami-fl made 3 trips inside the red zone vs the aggies. 3 times they had to settle for fg's, which was the difference in a 17-9 win. tougher challenge this week vs the hogs' strong run game. last year arkansas ended a 9 game losing streak to a&m, outgaining them by 160 yds in a 20-14 win. but the razorbacks' d has allowed 420 yds/27 pts per game so far. slight lean to texas a&m and the better defense.
12. MARSHALL (2-1)
AT TROY (1-2) +3.5
herd suffered the letdown of all letdowns last week, losing to bowling green in ot a week after a memorable win in south bend, while troy lost on a dramatic hail mary to appy st. marshall is putting up 508 yds/game w/balance... while the trojans are passing well (351/game) but the run game is light (59/game) and the defense has been too (445/game to fbs opponents). mu is 4-2 ats as road chalk of late, and they also qualify for that week 4/off 1st loss/road team trend. marshall.
13. WISCONSIN (2-1)
AT #3 OHIO STATE (3-0) -16.5
bucks are 8-0 su/6-2 ats of late vs the badgers. the home team in the series is on a 5-1-1 ats run. uw is 1-5-1 ats as big 10 dogs of 12+, while tosu is 5-0-1 ats the last 6 yrs in league openers. we'll see if the buckeye defense has improved vs the run, which was the achilles heel in losses to oregon/um a year ago. badgers ran for 260 last week vs new mexico st, but only 174 vs washington state the previous week. ohio state.
14. #7 USC (3-0)
@ OREGON STATE (3-0) +6.5
2 weeks ago oregon st followed up an upset win over boise st w/a 35-32 win at fresno st. last week usc buried that same fresno st team 45-17. so why do I like the beavers? beside the obvious? a year ago osu-nw had their way w/the trojans, and they're improved this year, especially on that talent o-line. the beavers have covered 5 of the last 7 vs usc in corvallis. that usc win over fresno came after the bulldogs' qb was injured early in the 3rd qtr. beavers are 5-2 ats of late as home dogs. caleb williams has met expectations at qb for southern cal, but this one goes down to the wire. oregon state.
15. STANFORD (1-1)
@ #18 WASHINGTON (3-0) -14
was happy to see kalen deboer get the uw job in seattle... this guy went 67-3 w/3 titles as a naia coach, then turned around the offenses of indiana and fresno st as a coordinator. from there he got the head coaching job for the bulldogs where in his first full season went 10-3. he's now 3-0, thanks to a guy he recruited at iu, michael penix, who transferred to the huskies and has been very effective. stanford has been just 7-18 ats in pac 12 games the past 3+ years, including 0-7 su/ats the last 7 games, 3-8 ats as road dogs and 1-6 ats off a bye week. washington
bonus pick: duke +7 over kansas.
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