Week 5“I bet you never smelled a real school bus before.”oh, yeah. ooooohhhhhh yeah.
FRIDAY1. #15 WASHINGTON (4-0)
AT
UCLA (4-0)
+3so if the huskies have only covered 4 of its past 14 pac-12 games, and have only won 4 of its last 15 vs ucla (1-8 su/2-7 ats in pasadena), and they're both 4-0, why is uw road chalk?? I'm guessing 2 reasons; 1-qb michael penix, who's been electric for washington, and 2-no perceived home field edge for the bruins in the so-far-this-year-nearly-empty rose bowl. but the team stats are a virtual dead heat, uw is 1-10 ats lately playing w/revenge (bruins won 24-17 in '21), 3-9 ats as pac 12 road favorites, and (cfb nerd stat alert) since '80, 4-0 faves in a 1st road game of season are 1-7 ats vs opponents off back/back wins. u...c...l...a... u-c-l-a fight-fight-fight!
SATURDAY2. #4 MICHIGAN (4-0)
AT
IOWA (3-1)
+11yeah, Iowa's offense is weaker than tap water at a bar. um buried the hawkeyes 42-3 in the '21 big 10 $$-maker and it wasn't even that close. but... j.j. mccarthy looked a little shakier last saturday vs maryland than he did vs teams like uconn and hawaii. was it not for blake corum's 240+ yd gem rushing the ball and a gift td off a muffed opening kick off, well... who knows. and now he starts his 1st away game in a very tough environment. plus Iowa's offense may suck but their d is more than solid, giving up 23 pts so far in 4 games and scoring 2 td's last week in the 27-10 win over rutgers. no doubt which team is more talented, but um also qualifies under the cfb nerd stat 4-0 team playing its 1st road team vs a foe off back/back wins. plus, um is 0-5-1 ats as road chalk in iowa city, and in the hawkeyes' last 57 home games, only 2 have been losses of 10+. iowa.
3. #7
KENTUCKY (4-0)
AT #14 OLE MISS (4-0)
-6.5normally I'm all over good teams getting points. but uk has allowed 16 sacks of qb will levis so far this season and are averaging just 83/game rushing. the rebels are running for 281/game behind zach evans/quinshon judkins and their front 7 also has 13 sacks.
mississippi wears down the cats. update... 9/29/22 4:23 pm edt. just saw where kentucky rb chris rodriguez will be playing saturday after serving a 4 game suspension for maybe a dui last july or maybe filling out false time cards while working at the university hospital or maybe something else. he definitely is a difference maker, making me make a different choice. kentucky.
4. TEXAS TECH (3-1)
AT #25
KANSAS STATE (3-1)
-7.52 teams off big upset wins. ksu has won/covered 5 straight in the series, 10-1 su/9-2 ats since '11. wildcats are the better rushing team (248/game), has the better pass d (7 picks, giving up just around 200/game) w/a better d-line (tech has allowed 10 sacks the last 3 games), plus w/their recent success over ou, can handle the honeymoon of a win better. kansas state.
5. #18
OKLAHOMA (3-1)
AT TCU (3-0)
+6.5sooners have texas up next, but after last week's loss there's no look ahead issue imho. ou is just 7-15 ats since '90 off a loss as a -10+ favorite, but they've dominated this series since '16 (7-0 su/6-1 ats), they have a better pass attack than smu (who put up 372 on the frogs last week), have a better pass rush (13 sacks; last week tcu gave up 5) and they're pissed. oklahoma.
6.
PURDUE (2-2)
AT #21 MINNESOTA (4-0)
-9.5I'm torn on this one. wish I knew who was playing qb for the boilers (injured aidan o'connell or back up austin burton). certainly know how well the gophers are playing right now... off a dominating win vs sparty, has won/covered 7 straight game dating back to last year, allowing just 6 pts/188 total yds a game so far in '22, controlling the los behind a physical talented o-line. but minnesota is 2-7 ats the last decade as -9/more big 10 home chalk, and pu is 6-1 ats the last 7 times they were getting points in west lafayette. another nugget; coach jeff brohm is 20-6 ats in his career as a dog of +4/more, 11-0 ats when his team is not off a 10+ win. I'm taking a chance that purdue keeps this really interesting.
7.
ILLINOIS (3-1)
AT WISCONSIN (2-2)
-7so far this year the illini might be behind only minnesota in terms of most improved team in the big 10. tall task taking on a uw team who 1. has owned them, going 15-2 su/10-7 ats of late, 2. beat them last year 24-0, holding illinois to 93 total yds, and 3. off a beating from the buckeyes. tenn-chattanooga isn't exactly tenn-knoxville, but u of I did hold them to 142 ttl yds in a 31-0 win last saturday. I saw one service who has chief iliniwek as the #1 efficiency pass defense in the country. which, if true and as daleko has already posted, may allow them to drop 7 or 8 in the box to counter the badgers' rushing game, since graham mertz isn't exactly re-writing record books in madison. the visitors have a star rb of their own in chase brown (95/604 w/3 td's). illinois
8.
OREGON STATE (3-1)
AT #12 UTAH (3-1)
-10.5off a heartbreaking last minute loss to usc, the beavers now face vengeful utah, whose only pac 12 loss in '21 was to oregon state. utes are 5-1 ats at home in league revenge games, while o-s-u west is 2-11 su/2-10-1 ats facing revenge opponents. but they're also 10-2 ats as road dogs of late. 4 turnovers to the trojans turned that game. I'll gamble that was a one-game issue. oregon state.
9. #2 ALABAMA (4-0)
AT #20
ARKANSAS (3-1)
+17.5tide has won the last 15 su, but in tuscaloosa last year the hogs hung around, getting a late td in a 42-35 loss/cover. arkansas was good enough to beat a&m last week, but a goal line fumble returned for an aggie td and a game-winning fg clanking on the uprights turned around that game. unlike '21, this year alabama's stout run d (63/game allowed) goes up vs a razorback rush attack averaging 244/game. visitor is 5-1-1 ats of late in the series. razorbacks are 11-4-1 getting points the last 16 games, tide is just 1-4 ats the last 2 years as road chalk of 13+, their last 4 regular season wins vs power 5 foes not named vanderbilt has all been by 7/less, and they're 1-4 ats in true road games lately. arkansas.
10. #22
WAKE FOREST (3-1)
AT #23 FLORIDA STATE (4-0)
-7another team off a tough loss, wake is riding a 2 game win streak over the noles (after losing 7 straight). fsu has won 5 in a row in the series at the doak, and is 4-0 for the 1st time since '15. but this may be their toughest test of the year, especially vs qb sam hartman who looked very impressive in the 2ot loss to clemson. the demon deacons are 14-7 ats as +6/more road dogs, 3-0 ats off a su loss of late. florida st is outgaining foes by 175/game and is 13-2 su at home vs wake since '92. noles win, wake forest covers.
11. #9
OKLAHOMA STATE (3-0)
AT #16 BAYLOR (3-1)
-2a lot of people assume that osu has the best point producing offense in cfb. they're right, but its the cowboys who are averaging 52 ppg. qb spencer sanders has 10 td's and just 1 pick. averaging 348/game. they have revenge working, after losing 21-16 to the bears in last year's big 12 title. since '18 they're 6-0-1 ats getting points away from stillwater. that offense goes up vs a baylor d holding opponents 107 yds under their season average. here's another cfb nerd nugget; game 4 teams off a bye seeking revenge vs a league foe are 38-15 ats when off a 10+ win. oklahoma state.
12. #17
TEXAS A&M (3-1)
AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (3-1)
-3.5aggies had some serious good fortune in the previously referenced win over arkansas. a&m is 0-3 ats of late the week before playing alabama, 1-4 ats in away revenge games (lost to msu 26-22 in '21), but the bulldogs are just 3-8 ats at home lately. and they're going up against a defense holding opponents 106 yds below their season average. stir in jimbo fisher's 11-5 ats record on the road... texas a&m
13.
CAL (3-1)
AT WASHINGTON STATE (3-1)
-4.5last week the cougars got outgained 624-428, and blew a 27-15 4th qtr lead that turned into a 44-41 loss to oregon. that's tough to get over. cal's actually won 12 of the last 16 in the series, and they're 8-2 ats as pac 12 road dogs. and in the last 8 years, the team playing w/revenge (wsu won 21-6) is 7-1 ats. california.
14. LSU (3-1)
AT
AUBURN (3-1)
+9was last saturday's 17-14 ot win over mizzou a bigger miracle than kick-6 for auburn? maybe. the entire cfb world is giving last rights to coach bryan harsin. war eagle is actually 9-3 ats getting points in this series when lsu is off 2+ wins, and the bayou bengals are 0-4 ats as -7/more road chalk off back/back wins. both team's starting qb's got banged up last week. in the last 22 games of this series, the home team is 18-4 su, 14-7-1 ats. auburn.
15. #10 NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-0)
AT #5
CLEMSON (4-0)
-6.5so did d.j. uiagalelei finally find himself in last week win at wake forest? iptay fans worldwide hope so. clemson needed him to shine on offense, w/a secondary riddled w/injuries getting cut up. the tigers are also looking for revenge from a 2 ot 27-21 loss in raleigh a year ago. the wolfpack returns 17 starters on a squad many think is ready to challenge for the acc crown. since becoming cu head coach, dabo swinney is 13-7 ats in revenge games, 6-0 ats in those games as -9/less. tigers are also 7-1 ats as acc faves of 8/less, nc state is 1-7 ats as dogs of 8/less. clemson.
BONUS GAME16. NAVY (1-2)
AT
AIR FORCE (3-1)
-14considering how much both teams prefer the ground game, this one would be over in 2 hours were it not for all those 3 min/30 sec tv commercials, not that I notice that sitting in the stands. I saw a lot of the falcons' blow out of nevada last friday night and they looked good. on the flip side the middies looked awful in opening losses to delaware and memphis, before shocking east carolina last week 23-20 as +16 dogs, which shockingly featured a navy td pass of 65 yds. in the last 2 years navy has lost to air force by a combined score of 63-14. navy is also 4-0 ats in this series w/double revenge. but the flyboys are 11-5 ats as home chalk since '19. I'm going with the eye test here. Air Force
my bonus pick... tulsa +9 at cincinnati
5-11
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