WEEK 6"I had to live with that squealing, corpulent little toad all these years. God, I hate that woman. I - I - I hate the way she licks stamps! I hate her furniture! And I hate that little sound she makes when she sleeps."didn't know this one...
1. #3
OHIO STATE (5-0)
@ MICHIGAN STATE (2-3)
+26.5sparty hasn't been this big a big 10 dog since '98, on a november night in columbus when nick saban's msu team leveraged 5 tosu turnovers and 2 redzone stands in the 4th qtr for a come from behind 28-24 upset as a +28 underdog. that team had more talent than this edition does imho. and bucks have won the last 5 in the series by a total score of 216-38. sheesh. tosu is 8-0 su/7-1 ats the last 8 in east lansing. spartans are allowing 326/game passing to power 5 foes this season w/just 1 sack, and ohio state's pass attack is better than that. msu is 1-5 ats as home dogs of 14+, 0-4 su/ats w/revenge. buckeyes are 5-1 ats giving 17+ on the road. there is 1 negative trend for the favorite here; 5-0 chalk playing their 1st game away from home of the season are 10-11 su/11-10 ats since '90, and 4 td's is a ton to give to a league foe. but since becoming head coach, ryan day's teams have been good securing the ball, and that's the only way this game stays close. I think.
ohio state
2. #17 TCU (4-0)
@ #19
KANSAS (5-0)
+7america's heartland is cbf's new heartthrob, w/the jayhawks and rival k-state a combined 9-1. both ku and tcu enter off upset wins, w/the frogs' 55-24 shocker over oklahoma being the more impressive. but... cfb nerds everywhere know that teams off a sooner win are just 4-12-1 ats vs opponents off back/back wins. kansas is 6-2 ats in its last 8 vs texas christian, and since 1980 5-0 underdogs are 16-3-1 ats vs foes off scoring 48+. a year ago the frogs needed a last second fg to beat kansas, and I think they'll need that again. rock chalk, Jayhawks.
3.
ARKANSAS (3-2)
@ #23 MISSISSIPPI STATE (4-1)
-8after falling behind 28-0, the hogs made things interesting vs alabama last week, getting within 5 before giving up 2 big play td's on their way to a 49-26 loss. the bulldogs' 42-24 win over texas a&m looked dominating on the scoreboard, but a pick 6 and a td off a blocked fg attempt made it that way. don't like that the razorbacks' starting qb got dinged vs the tide, but the home team in this series is just 2-8 ats in this series over the last decade. arkansas.
4.
PURDUE (3-2)
@ MARYLAND (4-1)
-3after last week's upset win at minnesota the boilermakers are now a $$-making 15-4 ats as dogs of 4+. wait... what's the line here? oh. never mind. purdue's d looked good vs the gophers, and so did maryland's defense vs michigan state, shutting down sparty in the 2nd half. but the terps are 2-11 ats vs foes off 2+ straight wins. boiler up.
5. #8
TENNESSEE (4-0)
@ #25 LSU (4-1)
+3a lot of folks seemed to give up on lsu after the opening loss to florida state. sure does look like the tigers are leading the sec west right now. what's more surprising is that this is just the 2nd time in the last 10 years that these 2 teams who are in the same league have played each other. weird. lsu is 8-2-1 ats the last 5+ years as dogs of 9/less. vols' offense behind hendon hooker has been dynamite, but I like home dogs w/good d's, and the tigers are allowing just 15 ppg so far. that said, this game kicks off not at night but at 11 am local time. who in baton rouge is awake that early on a saturday? actually I think that is an advantage for the road team whose routines are typically more consistent away from home. auburn outgained lsu 438-270 last week. maybe the tigers' d isn't 'that' good. tennessee.
6. TEXAS (3-2)
VS
OKLAHOMA (3-2)
+7pretty sure this is the 1st time the longhorns have been favored in the r-r-s in over a decade, and its the first time ou enters this game unranked since '05. in 2 big 12 games so far, the sooners are allowing 589 yds and 48 pts per game. not good for brent venables' rep. and now a backup qb may be starting w/gabriel in concussion protocol. texas' d is giving up just 367 yds/game, and qb quinn ewers may return. but this is a circle the wagon, or schooner, game for a team who finds themselves an underdog in dallas for the first time since '09. oklahoma.
7. #11 UTAH (4-1)
@ #18
UCLA (5-0)
+4.5the last time utah played in the rose bowl, they had more fans there than their home stadium in salt lake city actually holds. wonder if that'll be a repeat saturday vs the unbeaten bruins. utes have won/covered 5 straight vs ucla, and they're 5-1 ats of late as pac 12 road chalk of 3+. but these guys behind qb dorian thompson-robinson look different, plus here's another 5-0 home dog. ucla.
8.
TEXAS TECH (3-2)
@ #7 OKLAHOMA STATE (4-0)
-9.5cowboys are the better team, but I wonder if there might be a hangover after getting revenge on baylor last week from the '21 big 12 title game loss. red raiders have covered 5 of the last 6 in this series, and are looking for revenge themselves after losing to osu a year ago. texas tech.
9.
WASHINGTON STATE (4-1)
@ #6 USC (5-0)
-13I lost some $$ on the trojans last week, who coasted to a win/non-cover vs arizona st. now they take on the cougars who are 7-2 ats their last 9 at the coliseum, and 7-0 ats as road dogs of 10+ vs unbeaten opponents. trojans also have a revenge game on the horizon vs utah next week. washington state.
10.
NOTRE DAME (2-2)
@#16 BYU (4-1)
+3.5the catholics taking on the mormons in sin city. ok that just makes me laugh. irish are 10-1 ats of late as favorites of a td/less. these teams look similar on offense but nd is significantly better imho on defense. notre dame.
11. #20
KANSAS STATE (4-1)
@ IOWA STATE (3-2)
+2isu is 12-2 ats as underdogs in october. good matchup of k-state's strong run game (267 ave this yr) vs the cyclones' tough run d (giving up just 118/game). but iowa state's offense has been mediocre vs big12 foes (332 yds, 18 pts per game) and has allowed 9 sacks the last 2 weeks. not a good omen vs a wildcat d which had 6 sacks last week and has 9 picks this year. ksu also has a huge edge in special teams and is 3-0 ats as road chalk in ames. kansas state,
12. SOUTH CAROLINA (3-2)
@ #13
KENTUCKY (4-1)
-10dangerous letdown spot for uk I think, after 2 missed xp's, a safety and a missed targeting call on a late potential game winning drive were the difference in a 22-19 loss at ol' miss. but the gamecocks have had no game in this series of late, going 1-7 su/1-8 ats. usc-east's 2 game win streak has been vs charlotte and s.c. state. vs fbs opponents carolina is allowing 105 more yds/game than the wildcats are, and qb spencer rattler has tossed 7 picks already this season. gamecocks are 3-8 ats of late as road dogs, just 2-6 ats as sec dogs of 8+. big blue is 12-6 ats as favorites in lexington, 6-2 ats as home chalk of 7+. kentucky.
13. FLORIDA STATE (4-1)
@
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-1)
-3.5both teams are off their 1st loss of the season (nc state to clemson, noles to wake forest). wolfpack has dominated this series of late, taking 2 straight/4 of 5 su and going 16-4-1 ats, covering 6 straight vs fsu at home. in the loss to the tigers, nc state still held them to a season low 354 ttl yds. noles looked sloppy (11 penalties, 2 missed fg, lost fumble, turnover on downs) vs wake, and are 2-8 ats w/double acc revenge. state is 4-1 ats of late as home faves of 6/less, and have covered the last 6 games off a su loss. north carolina st.
14. TEXAS A&M (3-2)
@ #1
ALABAMA (5-0)
-24in the pre-season this was billed as a marquis potential top 5 matchup w/some added spice when jimbo fisher dissed his former boss. this week, the aggies are unranked and nick saban warned again of rat poison, even w/the motivation to avenge last year's 41-38 loss in college station (tide is 11-5 ats in sec revenge games of late). a&m is 0-7 ats as sec dogs vs foes who they beat the previous season. there is the aforementioned 5-0/favorite role trend (teams in that role are just 170-213-8 ats since '80, likely because by game 6 they're playing league/familiar opponents) and jimbo fisher has never been this large an underdog before in his head coaching career. there's also bryce young's sprained shoulder to factor in. but the aggies' offense has been virtually non-existent, and that's not a good lead in to going up vs a still good crimson tide defense. alabama.
15. #12 OREGON (4-1)
@
ARIZONA (3-2)
+13since getting blown out by uga, the ducks have outgained opponents by 200+ yds/game. and have gone 9-3 su/6-5-1 ats lately vs 'zona. but last yr, ua outgained uo by 60+ yd in eugene, losing 41-19 thanks to 5 turnovers. arizona.
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ohio state
