WEEK 10
“Know what I'd like to do?”
“Yeah I know what you'd like to do. You'd like to find the guy who did it, rip his still beating heart out of his chest and hold it in front of his face so he can see how black it is before he dies.”
“Actually, I was thinking of filing a grievance with the union.”I need to start watching more current type movies, tho a gutter-talking teddy bear didn't seem that appealing to me.
PAY ATTENTION TO THE EARLY GAME!FRIDAY GAME1. #24
OREGON STATE (6-2) AT WASHINGTON (6-2) -3.5
osu-nw is ranked for the 1st time in nearly a decade, but they need to win out and get some help to take the pac-12 north. the huskies haven't covered a game in a month, and not only are they 3-12 ats off 4/more straight ats losses, they're 0-4 ats off a bye of late. the visitors here are 15-4 ats in the series, 7-0 ats off a 21+ win, 10-3 ats lately as a road dog. I like the beavers. I'm also picking oregon state.
SATURDAY GAMES2. ARMY (3-4) AT
AIR FORCE (5-3) -6.5
this game is actually being played at jerry world in arlington, tx. the cadets are 4-1 su/ats the last 5 years, including back/back upset wins. both are off byes, both average 330+/game rushing. the falcons are 90 yds/game better defending the run. they're also 8-3 ats in this series when coming off back/back losses, plus army is 3-17-1 ats vs foes playing w/double revenge. air force
3.
TEXAS TECH (4-4) AT #7 TCU (8-0) -9.5
so last week I had $$ on wvu +7.5 vs tcu. the horned frogs had 4th and 1 on the mountaineer 30, up 34-31 w/0:25 left in the game. all they need is 1 yd for a 1st down. game over, I cover,. what does max duggan do? he throws a fade to the end zone for a td. the bastard.
it has nothing to do w/who I'm picking in this game. absolutely zero. the red raiders may be just 4-4, but they've outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year. they're also 9-4 ats as dogs lately, while tcu is 1-3 ats the last 4 times they've played as 8-0/better record-wise. tech getting routed by baylor last week gives me a little line value here, imho. I think texas tech keeps it close.
4. KENTUCKY (5-3) AT
#11 OLE MISS (8-1)
MISSOURI (4-4) +2.5
guys, uk is at missouri this week, not mississippi. home team in this series has won/covered the last 3, and the tigers' d has played well vs sec foes this season, holding them 111 yds/game below their respective season averages. the wildcats' d got carved up by tennessee 44-6 and on offense qb will levis is still banged up. mizzou.
5.
BAYLOR (5-3) AT OKLAHOMA (5-3) -3.5
baylor is another team whose record belies their stats, having outgained 7 of their 8 opponents. the bears had lost 7 straight to ou before breaking thru in '21 (27-14) holding the sooners to 82 yds rushing. despite suffocating iowa st last week, oklahoma is still allowing 513 yds/40 pts per game to big 12 foes, and 0-5 ats at home of late vs teams off back/back wins. baylor is 6-1-1 ats as road dogs, and (cfb nerd stat alert, and this is a good one) 20-1 ats as big 12 dogs vs teams off a su/ats win. da bears.
6. #2 TENNESSEE (8-0) AT #1
GEORGIA (8-0) -8.5
for the 1st time since '98, the vols are 8-0. 9-0 will be a tall order, I think. 1st time these two have met when both were in the top 10 since '05, and 0-5 is what tennessee is (su/ats) vs 7-0/better opposition lately, although they're also 5-1 ats as sec road dogs of 10/less. the vols' offense gets all the press, but being +8 in turnover margin has also been a big factor in their success. uga is level (9 turnovers, 9 takeaways) so far this year. the dawgs have also been 10 pts/131 yds better on defense than the volunteers in '22. other stats that lean red and black; they're 7-0 ats after playing florida when favored by less than 20, they're #1 in the country in red zone offense efficiency, #2 in red zone defense efficiency (that's quite a combo), #4 in overall defense (vols are #84) and #4 in time of possession (tennessee is #124). plenty of pundits say uga's offense will be under pressure to keep up w/tennessee's, but I think the bulldogs will be able to control t-o-p and finish off drives which will pressure the vols to answer. normally I'll all over a dog in a battle of unbeatens, but here I'm all over the dawgs.
7. #18
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-2) AT KANSAS (5-3) +2.5
that 48-0 shellacking to k-state last week was cowboy coach mike gundy's worst loss since arriving in stillwater. worse, qb spencer sanders aggravated his shoulder injury. ku, who already lost their starting qb to injury, has gone 0-3 since their 5-0 start. osu-plains has won 12 straight in the series, and w/both likely having backups in I think they're have the edge in overall talent. oklahoma state.
8. #23
LIBERTY (7-1) AT ARKANSAS (5-3) -13.5
when was the last time a ranked team was a 2 td underdog to an unranked team? when was the last time liberty beat a sec opponent? I don't know the answer to question #1, but I know the flames are 0-2 su/ats vs the league where it just means more. 3 weeks ago the hogs got by byu 28-20. the next week, liberty beat the cougars 41-14. hm. arkansas is 0-1 ats this year as double digit chalk and have lsu next. hm. in his career, liberty coach hugh freeze is 27-11 ats as an underdog. hm. give me liberty.
9. #6 ALABAMA (7-1) AT #15
LSU (6-2) +12.5
been a while since tide vs tigers wasn't the gem of the sec schedule that week, but obviously it's a huge game in the sec west where the winner controls their destiny to atlanta. alabama has struggled on the road lately, this year due in part to lots of penalties (15 at texas, 17 in knoxville). lsu is 5-0 ats off a bye, but saban is 10-3 ats off an off week, has gone 5-0 su/4-1 ats of late in baton rouge and in this series the visitor has covered 6 straight. still, 'bama is just 2-5 ats as road chalk, and I still see tennessee throwing for 455. I think alabama wins but lsu covers.
10. TEXAS (5-3) AT #13
KANSAS STATE (6-2) +2.5
'horns have beaten ksu 5 straight times. texas comes in off a bye, wildcats come in off the 48-0 win over okla st in which backup qb will howard threw for 296/4 td's. starter taylor martinez could return too. on defense k-state has 23 qb sacks and 11 picks. in his last start longhorn qb quinn ewers was intercepted 3 times. hm. wildcats are 6-2 ats getting points at home... so far this year texas is 0-2 su/ats on the road, 1-6 ats overall under steve sarkisian and 1-6 ats off a bye. kansas state.
11. #5 CLEMSON (8-0) AT
NOTRE DAME (5-3) +3.5
last week the irish ran over syracuse to the tune of 246 rushing yards in a 41-24 win. tougher sledding is likely vs a still stingy clemson front 7, who comes in off a bye. nd is 10-2 ats vs foes off an off week, 4-1 ats as home dogs lately. tigers are 1-5 ats as ooc (yes, notre dame plays 5 acc teams a year but they're not in the acc for football) road chalk, and 2 weeks ago in the comeback win over syracuse it was the 5-star frosh qb cade klubnik, not d.j. uiagalelei who led the comeback. irish are 0-4 ats at home so far in '21, but all as a favorite. now they're getting points, they've won 26 straight vs acc teams and I think they're more battle tested than cu. upset. notre dame.
12. FLORIDA STATE (5-3) AT
MIAMI (4-4) +7.5
the series visitor is 12-4 ats the last 16 matchups, tho' the home team has covered the last 2 games. noles looked dominant (642-264 in total yds) in a 41-16 win over ga tech. canes won ugly, 14-12 in 4 ot's over uv, when highly touted jake garcia subbed for injured qb tyler van dyke (15-29 for 125 yds). canes are a $$-burning 0-7 ats so far in '22, but they're 16-5 ats of late as home dogs, and fsu's win last week ended a 3 game losing streak. mix in the seminoles losing 4 of the last 5 to their rivals... miami.
13. #20 WAKE FOREST (6-2) AT #21
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-2) +5.5
the wolfpack have put up just 70 pts in their last 4 games, all since qb devin leary was lost for the season. wake fell apart 48-21 at l'ville, thanks to 8 turnovers (6 straight in the 3rd qtr). nc state's d is good but hard to see the deacons repeating that nightmare. state is also just 1-7 ats at home getting 6/less. that said, the home team in this series is 21-4 su/20-5 ats. n.c. state.
14. #10 UCLA (7-1) AT
ARIZONA STATE (3-5) +10.5
sun devils have played much better in the last month under interim head coach shaun aguano, who took over play-calling and inserted backup qb trenton bouquet last week at colorado, where he threw for 435/3 td's in a 42-34 win. but the bruins bring a high flying offense behind qb dorian thompson-robinson and ex-michigan rb zach charbonnet, who ran for 198/3 td's in a win over stanford. this series has seen 5 outright upsets since '15, including last year, and asu is 16-6 ats since '18 as a dog. rolling the dice w/arizona st.
15. MICHIGAN STATE (3-5) AT #14
ILLINOIS (7-1) -16.5
can this year get any worse for sparty? on the heels of an emotional, physical loss in ann arbor, after which 8 players got suspended for beating up a couple um players in the tunnel, they get an illini team that might be just as physical, who's allowing just 9 ppg and has a rb (chase brown) who's already rushed for 1200+ yds. even tho illinois is just 5-20 ats vs foes off a loss and ranked in the top 15 for the 1st time since '07, just can't see msu getting back off the mat when this year they're 0-3 on the road, all the losses by double digits. I-l-l... I-n-i.
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it has nothing to do w/who I'm picking in this game. absolutely zero. the red raiders may be just 4-4, but they've outgained 7 of their 8 opponents this year. they're also 9-4 ats as dogs lately, while tcu is 1-3 ats the last 4 times they've played as 8-0/better record-wise. tech getting routed by baylor last week gives me a little line value here, imho. I think texas tech keeps it close.
