“Yeah, uh, are you sure that this is completely necessary?”
“Necessary? Is it necessary for me to drink my own urine?”
“Probably not.”
“No, but I do it anyway because it's sterile and I like the taste.”
“...Okay.”
one of the most underrated sports organizations in the world; the american dodgeball association. of america.
WEEK 11
FRIDAY1.
EAST CAROLINA (6-3) AT CINCINNATI (7-2)
-5.
winuc is 4-0 su/3-1 ats of late in the series and has won 31 straight home games, but 4 of the bearcats' last 5 games this year have been decided by 4/less points. ecu is 10-4 ats as road dogs and has outgained 7 of their 9 foes in '22. east carolina.
SATURDAY2. PURDUE (5-4) AT #21
ILLINOIS (7-2)
-6.5lossin last week's 23-15 upset loss to michigan st., the illini still outgained sparty 441-294. in their 24-3 loss to iowa, the boilers had 2 turnovers, making it 15 in the last 6 games. pu is 11-4 ats as away dogs but 0-4 ats after playing the hawkeyes. u of I has caused at least 2 turnovers in 7 of their 9 games. add in rb caleb brown and his 1344 rushing yds, setting up qb tommy devito (72%, 14 td's, 2 int), illinois
3. #10
ALABAMA (7-2) AT #11 OLE MISS (8-1)
+11.5lossthe tide's road woes (2-6 ats) continued last week at lsu, but they've beaten the rebels 6 straight, the last 5 all by 15+. since '11, alabama is 13-0 su/10-3 ats vs opponents w/better records, and is 5-0 ats lately off a loss. w/ol' miss off a bye, I normally like a ranked, rested home dog. but (cfb nerd stat alert) since '80, preseason #1 teams are 29-15 ats off a su favorite loss, 19-4 ats in those games vs .600+ opponents. alabama.
4. WISCONSIN (5-4) AT
IOWA (5-4)
+1.5winthe line on the total in this game is 35.5, which is the lowest I've seen in any fbs matchup in '22, w/good reason; uw has held 3 opponents to season lows in total yds, and iowa has held 5 foes to season lows. hawkeyes are 11-7 ats in the series and have revenge from last yr's 27-7 loss in madison. home team has won 3 straight, and badger qb graham mertz has really scuffled this season vs good defenses (3 picks each to illini/tosu). iowa
5. MARYLAND (6-3) AT #14
PENN STATE (7-2)
-10.5winterps' offense had been pretty good in '22 til last week, putting up just 10 pts in a loss at wisconsin. trends all lean to the nitts here, who are 8-3 ats as 10+ chalk, 5-1 ats of late in the series, while maryland is just 1-5 ats on the big 10 road getting 10+, 1-6 ats off a 10+ loss. I am curious though whether psu goes w/clifford or the young qb allar, and whether tagovailaloa comes back from a bad performance.
gonna go against trends here and take a chance on maryland. edit 11/11/22. w/the weather forecast looking ugly, I think psu's ability to run the ball should carry the day. penn state.
6. ORV
LOUISVILLE (6-3) AT #12 CLEMSON (8-1)
-7lossreally like the cards here. just haven't been impressed w/cu so far. tigers gave up 263 rush yds at nd last week, and l'ville runs well (203/game). they also get to the passer (25 sacks in 6 acc games) while clemson has been a little leaky protecting their qb (14 sacks the last 5 games). I've mentioned previously how teams struggle to cover the game after their 1st loss this late in the season. here's even more evidence; home faves -4+ from game 9 on, off their 1st loss as -4/more chalk are 0-11 ats since 1982 vs good defensive (allow 20/less a game) foes. louisville.
7. #22 CENTRAL FLORIDA (7-2) AT #17
TULANE (8-1)
-2.5lossit's been a long time (was it '77?) when a super bowl was played in rainy tulane stadium (I think it was steelers beating the vikings), but it's been even longer (late 40's) since that stadium hosted 2 ranked cfb teams. kudos to ucf and the green wave. tulane gives up just 301 ttl yds/game; the golden knights average 501. tulane is 5-1 ats of late in the series, 11-3 ats at home in league games, 6-0 ats vs foes off a win. winner has an inside track to the aac title game. tulane.
8. SOUTH CAROLINA (6-3) AT
FLORIDA (5-4)
-7.5wina year ago dan mullen's fate was sealed when the gators went to columbia as -20 favorites and left on the wrong end of a 40-17 final. this year they enter a revenge matchup off qb anthony richardson's best game imho in a win over texas a&m. uf is 22-4-1 ats lately vs opponents off a win, 17-10-1 ats in the swamp vs .500+ foes. gamecocks beat vandy 38-27 last week but gave up 226 rushing yds. gators ran for nearly 300 on the aggies. uh oh. boys of florida in a blowout in their home finale.
9. #23 KANSAS STATE (6-3) AT ORV
BAYLOR (6-3)
-2.5lossbears have beaten ksu 4 straight times, but bu is pu off su wins (beat ou last week) as underdogs (1-10 ats). both teams are 4-2 in the big 12, but only baylor controls its destiny to get to the league title game. they're also 9-2 ats of late at home and catch k-state off a couple tough emotional games. baylor.
10. #24
WASHINGTON (7-2) AT #6 OREGON (8-1)
-13.5winbig on the huskies in this rivalry game. since getting pasted by uga, uo has won 8 straight by an average 25 pts. but their pass d is leaky, not good when facing uw qb michael penix. ducks have dominated this series (15-2 su/ats). huskies have won their last 3 in a row but have not covered any of them. now they're getting 2 td's. and I think oregon is due for a tussle. washington.
11. #1 GEORGIA (9-0) AT ORV
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-3)
+16.5lossdawgs held tennessee to 289 yds and 13 pts last week. maybe a letdown spot here? they've beaten the bulldogs 3 straight, and msu blew a 24-6 lead vs auburn (costing me some $$) before winning 39-33 in ot. qb will rogers goes up vs an uga d that's given up just 5 passing td's all season. that said, state coach mike leach is 17-6 ats vs unbeaten opponents, home team in the series is 3-1 ats of late, and (cfb nerd stat alert) since 1980, unbeaten teams in game 9+ are just 7-17 ats as double digit chalk vs .666/better foes. mississippi state hangs tough.
12. #4 TCU (9-0) AT
TEXAS (6-3)
-7loss. dumb picka top 4 undefeated team is a td underdog in november to a 3 loss opponent. maybe that's happened before but I haven't been able to track down where/when. texas is 1-5 ats as big 12 chalk of 7/less, 2-7 ats at home vs unbeaten foes. the frogs just keep coming from behind in 4th qtr wins. here's a stat; 9-0/better underdogs are 11-2-1 ats in regular season games lates, 6-0 ats as +4/more. but tcu's defense has had holes, especially vs the run, where the horns are strong. plus a lot of their comeback wins have come vs backup qb's. I think that luck can't continue. texas.
13. #15 NORTH CAROLINA (8-1) AT ORV
WAKE FOREST (6-3)
-3.5lossthis is the 3rd time this season unc has played back/back road games, fwiw. wake is off back/back losses, and this game has featured back/back shootouts the last 2 yrs (58-55, 59-53). home team has won 7 in a row in the series, and covered 7 of 8. demon deacons are -10 in turnovers the past 2 games, but figure to heel up, I mean heal up, vs a tar heel defense that is #128 in fbs. carolina is 6-11 ats of late on the acc road, while wf is 9-1-1 ats in their last 11 league games, 9-1 ats as acc home chalk of 6/less. wake forest.
14. #25 FLORIDA STATE (6-3) AT
SYRACUSE (6-3)
+7loss. awful pick. lolnoles come in off routing miami 45-3, and appear to be over their 3 game losing streak to begin october. they now catch the orange on a current 3 game losing streak. but this is their home finale, and they've beaten both purdue and louisville up in the carrier dome, and starting qb strader is expected back. su has played the noles tough the last 2 matchups too. syracuse.
15. ORV
SAN JOSE STATE (6-2) AT SAN DIEGO STATE (5-4)
+2.5lossaztecs have won 3 of the last 4 in the series, but the spartans have covered 3 of those 4. both have been good on defense, inconsistent on offense. but san jose st. is +10 on turnover ratio, and has sacked opposing qb's 18 times in the last 2 weeks. last week vs unlv san diego st gave up 6 sacks. san jose st.
BONUS GAME16. NOTRE DAME (6-3) AT NAVY (3-6)
+16.5loss. irish blow a 22 pt halftime lead.irish made me some $$ last week, looking like the physically dominant team most expected them to be in '22 in a 35-14 dominating of clemson. but the middies have typically been able to stay competitive vs nd, going 24-17 ats while winning just 4 of the 41 games. still, notre dame is 10-0 ats of late off a home win, an impressive 12-5-1 ats as road favorites. navy has lost their starting qb for the season, and before that were still putting up just 270 yds/game. they'll scrap, but eventually it's notre dame with the win/cover.
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