“You geriatric f*ck! You better keep your liver-spotted hands off my beautiful mother, who is a saint, or else I’ll shove one of your hearing devices up your ass so you can hear the sound of your own small intestines producing shit!”ahhh, to be in your 40s and still living at home. lol
WEEK 12NOTE EARLY GAME
THURSDAY1. SMU (6-4) AT #21
TULANE (8-2) -3.
winmustangs have won 7 straight in the series, and in their last 2 games have averaged 59 pts/598 total yds. but, their defense has been shaky; smu has been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games, and they're just 1-5 ats as dogs of 7/less lately. tulane's 38-31 loss to ucf last week looks closer than it actually was, but the green wave is 11-2 ats as -6/less chalk, and 6-1-1 ats in the 2nd of back/back home games. and they're also still tied for 1st in the aac. tulane.
SATURDAY2. #4 TCU (10-0) AT
BAYLOR (6-4) +2.5.
winthinking tcu would stumble isn't an irrational thought. thinking texas would win/cover against the horned frogs like I did last week... now that's irrational. tcu has won 6 of the last 7 over the bears, including a huge upset last year (30-28 as +7.5 dogs, 1 of baylor's 2 losses in '21), and have had a 'team of destiny' feel w/so many 2nd half comebacks. bu's 31-3 asskicking from k-state last week is giving me some added value here; the bears are still rushing for 222/game the last month, their d has picked off 12 passes (8 the last 3 weeks) and is giving up just 133 yd/game on the ground. they're also 7-0 ats off scoring 10/less the previous game, 3-0 ats w/double revenge, 13-1 ats as a dog w/big 12 revenge vs an opponent off a win (8-0 ats at home). tcu is 1-6 ats vs double revenge of late, 2-12 ats after playing the longhorns. and history is not kind to late november cfb undefeated league road favorites of -28/less; since 1980, from game 10/beyond unbeaten teams are 50-70-2 ats, 2-17 ats if they were a small fave/dog in the previous game. baylor
3. DUKE (7-3) AT
PITTSBURGH (6-4) -7.5.
losspanthers have won/covered 6 straight over the dukies. last week vs uva pitt had back/back pick 6's to open the game in a 37-7 rout. their d has been impressive overall lately, giving up a total of 287 yds and 16 pts to 'cuse/virginia. blue devils enter on a 3 game win streak averaging 33 pts/game, but their defense has been shakier, especially on the road where they've yet to cover this season. pittsburgh.
4.
ILLINOIS (7-3) AT #3 MICHIGAN (10-0) -17.5.
win.
both teams enter tied for 1st in their divisions. in a 31-24 loss to purdue the illini only put up 303 yds of offense, losing star rb chase brown (1442 yds) in the 4th qtr. not good news vs a um defense that has been impressive all season, holding 9 of 10 foes under 300 total yds (incl. 6 straight). illinois' d has looked good too, especially vs the run (86 yds/game) which should be a test for blake corum (1349 yds). wolverines are 11-1 ats of late as big 10 home faves 20/less, but 2-6 ats in final home games since '14. you also wonder about both the look ahead factor and how buttoned up harbaugh may keep the offense ahead of next week. illini have covered 4 straight as double digit big 10 road dogs, 6-2 ats their last 8 vs undefeated opponents. plus (cfb nerd stat alert) since '80, 10-0 teams are 2-16-2 ats as double digit chalk vs .700+ foes. illinois stays within reach.
5.
HOUSTON (6-4) AT EAST CAROLINA (6-4) -5.5.
winI've been impressed w/ecu of late. thought they played tough in a tough environment last week in the 27-25 loss at cincy, holding the bearcats to a season low 310 total yds, losing on a kickoff td return and 2 50+ yd td passes. the pirates have not turned the ball over in 4 straight games, +7 for the season. houston has beaten ecu 3 straight times but this year is -6 in turnover margin despite having an electric offense behind qb conner tune (31 td's/8 int). cougars are 7-4 ats as road dogs but 1-11 ats vs .500+ opponents in their last home game of the season. ecu wins, houston covers.
6.
WASHINGTON STATE (6-4) AT ARIZONA (4-6) +3.5.
win'zona enters off a road upset of ucla to play wsu, who won/covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. the cougars beat ariz st last week, and are now 12-3-1 ats in their last 16 pac 12 games. the wildcats have not won back/back games since 2019. washington st's defense is also allowing 100 yds less/game than u of a. washington state.
7.
TEXAS (6-4) AT KANSAS (6-4) +9.5.
wina year ago, the jayhawks came to austin as 31 pt dogs and left w/a 57-56 win, their only fbs victory of the season. the perennially overrated horns are now favored. again. qb quinn ewers has been shaky, they stopped giving their best player (rb bijan robinson) the ball last week in the loss to tcu (he gained 29 yds on 12 carries). texas is 0-5 ats after playing the frogs, 1-5 ats in big 12 road games. kansas has struggled since losing qb jalon daniels after a 5-0 start but they have covered 5 straight in the series. one team has more talent, the other seemingly more want to. I'll lean to the talent. don't burn me again texas.
8. #24
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (7-3) AT LOUISVILLE (6-4) -3.5.
losshome team in this series is 4-1 su/ats. wolfpack is off a surprising 21-20 loss at home to b-c, while the 'ville lost qb malik cunningham in the 1st half of their 31-16 loss at clemson. he's still iffy for this game. nc state lost their offense after losing their starting qb for the season a few weeks back, but their defense is still stout. north carolina st.
9. #2 OHIO STATE (10-0) AT
MARYLAND (6-4) +27.5.
winif anyone out there has hs experience as a rb w/some college eligibility left, please contact ryan day. both starters have been in and out of the lineup all season, the #3 back was lost for the year w/an injury in august, the #4 back is a true frosh w/potential but little experience, the #5 back is now out for the season, the #6 back (a transfer from arizona st who came here as a lb) was injured and out last week, and the #7 guy is a kid who's played special teams, cb, wr, anywhere to get on the field, and in his first touch of the game last saturday vs indiana went 71 yds for a td. lol. in addition to the medic report, there's the 10-0 road favorite trend I shared above, the 'don't show um anything' factor, and the fact that the bucks are 1-7 ats the last 8 games prior to the game. terps are just 1-5 ats getting 14+ at home lately, but their offense is good enough for a backdoor cover. maryland.
10. #1
GEORGIA (10-0) AT KENTUCKY (6-4) +22.5.
lossso uk gets the infamous prize for being the 1st sec team to lose to vanderbilt since '19. their reward is the #1 bulldogs. once again, the 10-0 league road chalk trend is in play here, though the last 31 times a sec favorite lost to vandy that team is just 11-20 ats the following game, so those may balance out. the wildcats are 3-0 ats of late in this series, 5-1 ats as home dogs of 7+, and 9-2 ats vs undefeated sec opponents. but under kirby smart, uga is 19-8 ats as road chalk, a pretty impressive stat. as much as I prefer underdogs, just can't do it here. georgia
11.
IOWA (6-4) AT MINNESOTA (7-3) -2.5.
winthe total betting line for last week's iowa-wisconsin game was 35.5... an incredibly low number in today's cfb world. final score; 24-10 iowa. how did they score so much on just 142 yds of total offense? a blocked punt sets up a 17 yd td 'drive, a 32 yd pick-6, a 41 yd punt return sets up an 18 yd td 'drive' (took 5 plays too), and a 4th qtr stop near the 50 sets up a 27 yd 'drive' (the hawkeyes' most successful possession of the day) for a fg. so now you've got these 2, plus purdue and illinois, atop the big 10 west. gophers enter off a bounce back d31-3 domination of n'western. iowa has owned this series (7-0 su, 5-1-1 ats), has owned the month of november (13 straight wins), and owned the los on defense allowing just 89 rush yds/game (only 51 to uw last week). the gophers run well (mohammed ibrahim has 18 straight 100+ yd games and 18 td's so far this season, #1 in the country) but they have huge ?? at qb where tanner morgan has missed 2 of the last 4 games w/injuries, and is doubtful saturday. the freshman backup qb threw for 64 yds vs the wildcats. I'm taking iowa, who if they win out (and illinois loses at um) will return to the big 10 $$-maker in indy.
12. BOISE STATE (7-3) AT
WYOMING (7-3) +13.
win2 top teams in the mwc-mountain. boise is 6-0, the cowboys a game back. broncos d allowing just 263 yds/game but wyoming is 6-1 ats in this series and 5-2 ats of late getting points in laramie. plus their defense has allowed just 315 yds/game the last 4 weeks w/18 sacks, while rushing for 242/game over that span. wyoming.
13. #23 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-3) AT
OKLAHOMA (5-5) -7.5.
win117th edition of bedlam in norman. sooners had won/covered 6 straight in the series til last year's 37-33 loss in stillwater. cowboys beat iowa st 20-14 last week but have scored just 36 points in their last 3 games, and they've been outgained in every big 12 game but 1 so far. ou has averaged about 240 rush yds/game the past month; osu is giving up 200+ lately, plus they're 8-14 ats off an underdog win. oklahoma gets revenge and wipes the bad taste of losing at wvu out of their mouths.
14. #7 USC (9-1) AT #16
UCLA (8-2) +1.5.
lossbruins may have been caught peeking at this one last week, losing to arizona. trojans come in off a dominant win over doormat colorado. usc still has a legit path to the cfb playoffs, w/only the 1 point loss at utah, but their defense remains an issue, having allowed 132 pts in their last 4 games. ucla is 11-5 ats as home dogs since '90, 5-0 ats as home dogs vs opponents w/revenge (bruins won 62-33 a year ago). I think we see just as many points in a much closer game. ucla holds onto the victory bell.
15. #10 UTAH (8-2) AT #12
OREGON (8-2) -3
been a nice bounce back season for the pac 12, w/the los angeles schools, utah, uo, uw, oregon st, wash st. all having good years, just in time to see the league break up. in the'21 league title game the utes stuffed the ducks 38-10, holding oregon to 221 total yds, following up on a 37-3 regular season drubbing. a week ago uo made a bonehead coaching decision, going for it on 4th/1 from their own 35, not getting it, setting up the game winning score in a 37-34 loss to washington where they looked like the better team to me. the utes are a $$-making 13-2 ats as road dogs. the ducks are 5-0 ats since '96 at home w/revenge coming off a home loss. utah has 6 losses the past 2 seasons; all 6 on the road. make it 7. shaky nod to oregon.
my bonus pick; florida -14.5 over vanderbilt.
uh, oops. lol 
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May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
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