“That's very interesting, and I think, very illuminating. There seems to be a definite pattern emerging. And, of course, this pattern, once isolated, can be coped with. Recognize the problem, and you are halfway on the road to its, uh, its solution. Uh, tell me, what do you do for fun? What activity gives you a different sense of enjoyment from the others? Uh, what do you find fulfilling? What gives you that... special satisfaction?”
“I go to funerals.”no clue on the movie this week.
WEEK 14 – CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKFRIDAYAT SAN ANTONIO.
loss1.
NORTH TEXAS (7-5) VS UTSA (10-2)
-8.5 - PRIOR MEETING UTSA WINS 31-27
roadrunners make their 2nd straight trip to the c-usa title game, on a 9-game win streak. but they had to come from 24-0 down last week to beat utep 34-31 on a last second fg. they had trouble w/north texas too in the midseason, winning 31-27. now since the league title games began in '92, same season revenge teams have done great (48-51 su, 50-49 ats) but here are some cfb nerd stats for ccg's; .600/less teams w/same season revenge are 6-0 ats since 2000, and when revengers are facing teams off a win who allow 24+/game, they are 15-9 ats lately, and if those opponents scored 34+ in their last game, the revengers are 10-2 ats. mean green hang around.
AT LAS VEGAS.
win2.
UTAH (9-3) VS USC (11-1)
-2.5 - PRIOR MEETING UTAH WINS 43-42
usc îs 1-2 su/0-3 ats in pac 12 title games, utes 1-1 su/ats and coming off a ccg win last year. caleb williams gets a lot of press and rightly so, but the trojans are an amazing +22 in turnover ration this season, which has tilted many a game their way. utah also sacked williams 4 times when they met in october, the only time usc was outgained by an opponent this season. the trojans are also off 2 emotional draining games vs arch rivals (ucla, nd). I wonder how much gas is left in the tank, plus they're 1-7 ats of late in neutral site games. utah is 4-1 ats as a dog vs revenge and they're +7 in turnover ratio which isn't bad. if they take care of the ball in this one I think it stays very very interesting. utah.
SATURDAYAT ARLINGTON, TX.
win3. #13
KANSAS STATE (9-3) VS #3 TCU (12-0)
-2.5 - PRIOR MEETING TCU WINS 38-28
horned frogs have had a prince of a season. over/under total in vegas for wins was 6.5. 5 wins by 1 possession. and in their win over k-state, they had the good fortune of seeing the top 2 opposing qb's get knocked out of the game by the 2nd qtr, along w/6 other key players. since then, will howard has taken over at qb and carried the wildcats. they are 4-1 ats vs tcu of late, 4-0 ats in neutral site games, 5-2 ats w/revenge. they also qualify for the last 2 same season revenge stats that north texas does. tcu is 0-4 ats in neutral site matchups, 3-6 ats as road chalk of 6/less. kansas state.
AT DETROIT.
loss4. TOLEDO (7-5) VS
OHIO (9-3)
+1.5these are 2 of the 3 mac schools who finished w/winning records in '22. surprised the bobcats are the underdog here, coming in off 7 straight wins. rockets' top 2 qb's have been banged up, as was the bobcats starter, but his backup is actually a bigger threat running the ball. vs 6 common opponents, toledo is 3-3 su/2-4 ats, ohio 5-1 su/6-0 ats, but they're just 2-10 su the last 12 matchups vs ut. I'll take the hot team getting points. ohio u.
5. COASTAL CAROLINA (9-2) AT
TROY (10-2)
-9.5.
winccu will be missing its star qb gordon mccall, hence the big number facing a team who's 20-4 su the last 2 yrs. w/o their qb, the chanticleers are putting up just 273 total yds/game, and now they go up vs a trojan d holding opponents 103 yds under their season average. that d also has 35 sacks in '22, while coastal has given up 17 qb sacks the last 5 games. troy.
6. #22 UCF (9-3) AT #18
TULANE (10-2)
-3.5 - PRIOR MEETING UCF WINS 38-31.
win1st shot at a league title for the green wave since '98. 1st time in the aac championship game for ucf since their unbeaten season 5 yrs ago. both teams prefer the run over the pass. tulane's been better managing the ball (+7 turnover ration vs -5 for the golden knights). central florida's win a few weeks ago was more dominant than the final score indicates. but ucf's starting qb pulled a hamstring last week. green wave is 8-1 ats as chalk w/revenge. tulane.
7.
FRESNO STATE (8-4) AT BOISE STATE (9-3)
-3.5 - PRIOR MEETING BOISE STATE WINS 40-20
winbsu is 1-4 ats in mwc title games, and fsu is 4-0 ats in them. the bulldogs are also 7-1-1 ats playing w/double revenge (losses earlier this year and in '21 to boise). fresno did not have their starting qb in the 40-20 loss. in the 5 games since haener has returned, he's hit 75% of his passes for a 316/game average w/13 td's/2 int. fresno state.
AT ATLANTA.
win8. LSU (9-3) VS
GEORGIA (12-0)
-18.55th mtg between these 2 in atlanta with lsu 3-1 all time. but in uga's 3 sec ccg wins, all of them have been by 20+. the dawgs offense has scuffled in 3 of its last 4 halves vs uk/ga tech, but the tigers enter off a deflating loss at a&m which ended their playoff hopes and injured their qb, jayden daniels, who finished the game on the sidelines in a walking boot. the aggies ran for 273 last week; georgia averages 203/game on the ground. bad sign. as is a bulldog d that's allowed only 8 passing td's this yr. in the previous 31 sec title games, only 6 have been decided by single digits. brian kelly's teams have been great as dogs off a loss (18-7 ats), and lsu is 7-0 ats of late in neutral site games. but daniels' injury I think will mean too much. georgia
AT CHARLOTTE.
win9. #10
CLEMSON (10-2) VS #24 NORTH CAROLINA (9-3)
+7.52 weeks ago this game was shaping up as a potential playoff elimination game, even though notre dame had knocked off both of them earlier this season. but the heels blew a 17 pt lead losing to georgia tech, and last week the tigers got upset by south carolina 31-30. in the last 3 weeks unc qb drake maye has just 1 td pass, 2 picks, 8 sacks and has completed under 60% of his passes, playing a lot more like clemson's d.j. uiagalelei. trends... cu is 9-1 ats after giving up 30+ pts, 7-1 ats in acc ccg's, 6-1 ats as league chalk of 13/less, 8-4-1 ats off a loss. carolina is 6-13-2 ats as a dog vs clemson, 0-4 ats off an acc loss as home favorites, and their defense is giving up 443 yds/game. clemson.
AT INDIANAPOLIS.
loss10.
PURDUE (8-4) VS #2 MICHIGAN (12-0)
-16.5 last year I wondered if um would suffer a hangover after slaying the buckeye hex, and they slipped by offense-less iowa 42-3. this year, off a big play explosion in columbus, they face a purdue team they haven't played in 5 years. wolverines own every stat advantage over the boilers on offense, defense, performance vs common opponents. most impressive is the 2nd half improvement by michigan's d, which has allowed just 20 points to their last 5 opponents. what hope does pu have? well, they know that blake corum is out for the rest of the season and can gameplan for that. 3-0 ats in neutral site games, 7-1 ats as big 10 dogs of 8+, 4-1 ats vs unbeaten big 10 foes, 7-1 ats as dogs vs opponents off a 20+ win, and um is 3-10 ats off a win as a road underdog. hard to see any way purdue can win this game, but a backdoor cover is my play. boilermakers.
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