GAMESPART 1“I've been to New York thousands of times.”
“Really?”
“Mm-hmm.”
“What's it like?”
“Well, there are some things you should know. First off, you see gum on the street, leave it there. It isn't free candy.”this one I know. a seasonal giant in a very small world.
DEC. 16 1. HOMETOWN LENDERS BAHAMAS BOWL – NASSAU, BAHAMAS
MID-AMERICA VS CUSA
(6-6) MIAMI – OHIO VS (6-6)
UAB –10.5good news for miami? they're 4-0 ats in bowls since '11. bad news? they went 0-5 su/1-4 ats vs bowlers during the regular season. worse news? mac teams are 5-18 su/7-15-1 ats vs c-usa opponents in bowls. even worse news? the blazers are 15-7-1 ats as chalk of -10+. cfb nerd stat for this game? favorites in bowl games of 2 .500 teams are 15-8 ats. uab does have an interim head coach before trent dilfer takes over, but too many other factors are in their favor. alabama-birmingham.
2. DULUTH TRADING CURE BOWL – ORLANDO, FL
CUSA VS SUN BELT
#25 (11-2)
UTSA VS #24 (11-2) TROY
-1.5so what is the ONLY bowl game featuring 2 teams who both won their leagues? would you believe they're playing in the duluth trading cure bowl? me either. utsa led the nation in 1st downs, troy held 3 foes to season lows in total yds, and did almost as impressively vs the 7 bowl opponents they faced this season (allowed only 17 pts/326 yds a game). roadrunners have never won a bowl game, yet, but I think qb frank harris finds a way. texas-san Antonio.
DEC 173. WASABI FENWAY BOWL – FENWAY PARK, BOSTON
AMERICAN VS ACC
(9-3) CINCINNATI VS (7-5)
LOUISVILLE -1uc lost head coach luke fickell to the big 10 (wisconsin), while the 'ville is getting a new head coach from the big 10 (jeff brohm/purdue) to replace the coach who's replacing fick (scott satterfield). w/both teams also missing their starting qb's and numerous players on both sides of the ball, I'd rather play the under (41.5) than a side here. bearcats went 0-6 ats vs bowlers this year, cardinals are 6-0 ats off a loss vs foes off a loss. slightest lean to louisville.
4. NEW MEXICO BOWL – ALBUQUERQUE, NM
AMERICAN VS IND
(7-5) SMU VS (7-5)
BYU +5.5imho the wrong team is favored here. byu is 16-7 ats in their last 23 games as a dog of +12/less. cougars are also 11-2 su/10-3 ats vs opponents w/the same record. that must mean something. mustangs are 0-5 ats in their last 5 as a favorite. both defenses give up 30+/game... so last team w/the ball covers. brigham young.
5. JIMMY KIMMEL LA BOWL – LOS ANGELES, CA
PAC 12 VS MOUNTAIN WEST
(7-5) WASHINGTON STATE VS (9-4)
FRESNO STATE -3
fsu's jake haener is 1 of the better qb's in the country, and led the bulldogs to 6 straight wins and a mountain west title. as of today it looks like he'll be one of the few nfl prospects who's opting in for a bowl game. cougars were good on offense too but will be missing 3 of their top 4 wr's and didn't beat a team who finished w/a winning record in '22. plus the pac 12 is a putrid 8-28 ats in bowl games. gimme the raisins. fresno st.
6. LENDING TREE BOWL – MOBILE, AL
CUSA VS SUN BELT
(5-7)
RICE VS (6-6) SOUTHERN MISS
-6.51st bowl game for rice since '14. they were the 2nd worst turnover prone team in the country this season (30). and yet... bowl teams off 3 straight losses are 13-3 su/12-4 ats vs opponents off back/back wins... hm... and 7-0 ats as dogs of 7/less. bowl teams w/losing records are 5-1 ats since '15 as dogs of 11/less. hm. this is also the biggest line so. miss. has had as a favorite all season vs a fbs foe. hm. rice.
7. SRS DISTRIBUTION LAS VEGAS BOWL – LAS VEGAS, NV
SEC VS PAC12
(6-6)
FLORIDA VS #14 (9-3) OREGON STATE
-10I've been on the beaver bandwagon for a long time, and I've also liked oregon st this year which has paid off for me (9-2 ats). but 10 points better than the up/down gators? who'll be playing w/o their starting qb, top o-lineman, top lb and 2 of their top 4 wr's? ex-buckeye qb jack miller takes over as qb for uf, w/a month of practice to get ready. oregon st's run game and o-line are top notch, but they're also 0-4 su vs sec opponents, and pac 12 teams are 1-5 ats vs sec foes, 15-34-1 ats as bowl chalk. florida is 5-1 ats vs pac 12 teams, and 1st yr head coaches (like billy napier) are 10-4 ats as bowl dogs of 10+. I think uf keeps this close.
8. FRISCO BOWL – FRISCO, TX
CUSA VS MOUNTAIN WEST
(7-6)
NORTH TEXAS VS (9-4) BOISE STATE
-10.5here are a couple cfb nerd stats; ccg losers are 8-2 ats as double digit dogs, but double digit faves who lost their ccg are just 2-8 ats. boise is the better defensive team, and n. texas is 0-4 su/ats in its last 4 bowl games. but the mean green have the better offense and will basically be playing a home game. north texas
DEC 199. MYRTLE BEACH BOWL, CONWAY, SC
SUN BELT VS IND
(8-4) MARSHALL VS (6-6)
UCONN +10hooray for the huskies, who are bowling for the 1st time since '15. their opponent then was... marshall. both teams prefer to run the ball and do it well. uconn was 6-3 ats getting pts this season, while dad's thundering herd was horrible as favorites (3-6 ats). what a job by 1st year uconn coach jim mora, and remember how 1st yr coaches do in bowls as double digit dogs. marshall wins, connecticut covers.
DEC. 2010. FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL – BOISE, ID
MID-AMERICA VS MOUNTAIN WEST
(8-4)
EASTERN MICHIGAN VS (7-4) SANJOSE STATE
-3.5eastern michigan plays on a gray field. the famous Idaho potato bowl is on a blue field. just thought I'd point that out. in the 40 years prior to 2015, the eagles/hurons played in 1 bowl game. this is their 5th in the last 7 seasons. unfortunately they've lost 4 straight bowl games but are 3-1 ats. they also went 6-1 ats as underdogs in '22, while the spartans ended the season 0-7 ats. san jose st only had 7 turnovers this season, but allowed 40 qb sacks. eastern michigan.
11. ROOFCLAIM.COM BOCA RATON BOWL – BOCA RATON, FL
IND. VS MID-AMERICA
(8-4)
LIBERTY VS (8-5) TOLEDO
-4.5 rockets have lost their last 4 bowl games, the flames have won their last 3. toledo has a talented dual threat qb in daquan finn. liberty has used 4 different qb's in a year that saw them upset arkansas and get into the top 25, then lose 3 straight games including to lowly new mexico st by 35 pts in their finale. you wonder if the rumors of losing head coach hugh freeze messed up the mojo. but its hard to back toledo as a bowl fave (3-9 ats since '02) or mac teams in the post season (6-28 su/8-25-1 ats as chalk vs bowlers off a su loss). give me liberty.
DEC. 21
12. R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL – NEW ORLEANS, LA
CUSA VS SUN BELT
(8-5) WESTERN KENTUCKY VS (10-2)
SOUTH ALABAMA -4the jaguars are favored despite the fact that they're still seeking their first ever bowl win (0-2 su/ats). usa has a solid defense but a huge challenge slowing down a hilltoppers offense led by qb austin reed who had 63 explosive (25+ yards) plays this season, best in fbs. wku is also 13-2 ats as an underdog vs sun belt opponents. so why am I going against them? reed, along w/the back up qb, have both entered the transfer portal, along w/2 o-line starters, their top 2 tight ends, and even their kicker. with offense being their bread and butter, that's too much food off the table. south alabama.
FCS BONUS PICKS
SEMI-FINALS13. (12-1)
INCARNATE WORD AT (11-2) NORTH DAKOTA STATE
-9the bison are in their 12th straight fcs semis. the cardinals are in their first. qb lindsay scott has led an incredible offense w/59 td passes and 4400 yds in their fast paced offense that also features a rb (marcus cooper, 1300 yds) averaging 6.9 per carry. north dakota st is a strong running team w/a stingy defense but they've been stung by injuries, losing 8 starters in the last 3 weeks. plus since this game is actually in a dome instead of the snowy outdoor elements of fargo, gimme the word.
14. (12-1)
MONTANA STATE AT (12-1) SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
-5.5the bobcats of montana state run for 330 yds/game, #1 in fcs. the jackrabbits allow just 85 yds rushing/game, #1 in fcs. a year ago msu hosted a semi final between these two teams, winning 31-17. I think south dakota state gets revenge for the win, but not the cover.
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