PART 3"Merry New Year!"
"That's "happy." In this country we say "Happy New Year.""
"Oh, ho, ho, thank you for correcting my English which stinks!"no clue.
DEC. 3031. DUKE’S MAYO BOWL – CHARLOTTE, NC
BIG 10 VS ACC
(7-5) MARYLAND VS #23 (8-4)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE -1 losswolfpack is 10-3 ats in its last 13 bowls, 4-1 ats vs big 10 foes, much better defense vs a terps team who has had a ton of opt outs/transfers. nc state.
32. TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL – EL PASO, TX
ACC VS PAC12
(8-4) PITTSBURGH VS #18 (9-3)
UCLA -5.5 loss. bruins blow a 2 td lead w/3 straight 2nd half turnoversbeen going back and forth on this one. bruins are just 3-8 ats as bowl faves -10/less and pitt is great as a dog. but once again, the panthers have more opt outs, ucla is more excited to be playing in its first bowl since '17. ucla.
33. TAXLAYER GATOR BOWL – JACKSONVILLE, FL
IND. VS SEC
#21 (8-4) NOTRE DAME VS #19 (8-4)
SOUTH CAROLINA +2.5.
loss. irish dominate physicallyIrish are 6-14 ats in its last 20 bowl games. gamecocks have covered 5 of their last 6 bowl games, are 6-1 ats as postseason dogs, and ended the season on a roll w/wins over tennessee/clemson. wrong team favored. south carolina.
34. BARSTOOL SPORTS ARIZONA BOWL – TUCSON, AZ
MID-AMERICA VS MOUNTAIN WEST
(9-4)
OHIO U VS (7-5) WYOMING
+1.
win. finally!considering how bad mac teams have been lately in bowl games (6-28 su/8-25-1 ats vs opponents off a loss), seeing the bobcats as chalk here is a shocker. but ou did win/cover 7 straight before the loss to toledo in the mac ccg. cowboys are 4-0 ats in its last 4 bowls, but teams off a shutoff loss in their finale (fresno st. beat wyoming 30-0) are 3-11 ats. ohio u.
35. CAPITOL ONE ORANGE BOWL – MIAMI GARDENS, FL
SEC VS ACC
#6 (10-2) TENNESSEE VS #7 (11-2)
CLEMSON -5.
loss. so mad at myself that I backed a frosh qb in his 1st startnever has the orange bowl been more aptly named than this year. its a shame the vols' hendon hooker will miss this game after having such an incredible season; on the other side tigers fans finally get their wish, seeing cade klubnik get his 1st start. w/tennessee also missing its top 2 wr's for this one... clemson
DEC 3136. TRANSPERFECT MUSIC CITY BOWL – NASHVILLE, TN
BIG 10 VS SEC
(7-5)
IOWA VS (7-5) KENTUCKY
+2.
win1st team to score 10 wins. the betting line total for this game is 31... that's the lowest in cfb this season (lower than even army-navy! lol). but besides both have pretty inept offenses, both teams also have solid defenses. w/the hawkeyes looking for revenge after last year's 20-17 bowl loss to uk.... iowa.
37. ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – NEW ORLEANS, LA
SEC VS BIG 12
#5 (10-2) ALABAMA VS #9 (10-3)
KANSAS STATE +6.5.
loss2 losses, both on the final plays of those games, left the tide out of the playoffs this year. been a lot of publicity that bryce young and will anderson will play in this one; my question is for how long? despite the dominance alabama has had as small chalk over good (.750+) opponent (13-2 su/11-4 ats), they're only 2-5 ats as bowl faves of 8/less, and there's still some wondering about how much 'want to' will be present. ksu is #4 in the country this season in turnover margin, and 'bama has also been very penalty prone in '22. kansas state hangs around.
38. VRBO FIESTA BOWL – GLENDALE, AZ
#3 TCU VS #2
MICHIGAN -8.
lossteams entering the cfb playoffs off a su loss are 3-0 ats (that stat would apply below as well), but tcu is 3-16 ats when it losses as an underdog since '16. despite being 0-5 su/ats in its last 5 bowl games (and 1-5-1 ats in bowl games after beating tosu), um has had a team of destiny look about them in '22. since the playoffs began in '14, semifinalist favorites of 8+ are 8-0 su/6-2 ats. and in the last 2 seasons vs 16 bowl qualifying teams, the ugly hats have won the stat battle in 14 of them, which is impressive. horned frogs have had a season of comebacks, while the wolverines have dominated 2nd halves all year long. michigan.
39. CHICK FIL-A PEACH BOWL – ATLANTA, GA
BIG 10 VS SEC
#4 (11-1)
OHIO STATE VS #1 (13-0) GEORGIA
-6.5.
painful winas bowl dogs the bucks are 7-3 ats. they're also 8-3 ats off a 14+ loss. the all-time bowl record vs the sec sucks (2-10 su) but in the last 3 matchups in major bowl games, tosu is 2-1 su/ats. dawgs have dominated big 10 foes in the postseason (10-2 su/9-3 ats) and is good as smallish favorites the last 6 yrs (9-3 ats as chalk of 8/less). my main question-can ohio state's mash-unit of running backs be effective enough to keep uga's d-line honest and safeties from double-teaming harrison and egbuka. if so, we've got a game. if the bucks are too 1-dimensional, we don't. ohio state.
more later
JAN 240. RELIAQUEST BOWL – TAMPA, FL
SEC VS BIG 10
#22 (8-4) MISSISSIPPI STATE VS (8-4)
ILLINOIS +1.
loss. since this game went to msu -3.5 by kickoff, that last touchdown made some folks quite happy or pissedhard to predict how msu will be emotionally after the sudden death of coach leach. both teams have good defenses. illini have played much more physical this season but will be missing rb chase brown and their top db.
41. CHEEZ-IT CITRUS BOWL – ORLANDO, FL
SEC VS BIG 10
#17 (9-4)
LSU VS (8-5)]PURDUE
+14.5.
my god that was an ugly losslsu had a bunch of opt outs a year ago when they got blown out by kansas st. this year? none that I know of. meanwhile the boilers lost their coach, their qb and 3 best playmakers on offense. purdue is a sparkling 10-0 ats as a dog off a 10+ loss, but their d struggle vs the run and the tigers are looking to build momentum into '23. louisiana state.
42. GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC – ARLINGTON, TX.
AMERICAN VS PAC12
#16 (11-2)
TULANE VS #10 (11-2) USC
-2.
win. for every game I ever bet on where it changed at the end like miss st-illinois, this one was a nice new year's bonus. the over 66.5 was a no brainerthis line still astounds me. trojans just a 2 pt favorite vs a team who'd lost 61 consecutive games vs ranked teams before finally beating cincy at the end of the year. but tulane did go 7-2 ats vs bowlers in '22, and usc has to bounce back from blowing a big lead vs utah and blowing a playoff spot. 1st year bowl favorite coaches are just 16-32 ats vs opponents who are off a win, pac 12 bowl teams who allow 25+/game are now 1-15 ats of late, and since 1980, bowl teams who feature the heisman trophy winner are 0-8 su/ats off a loss. I'll ride the wave.
43. ROSE BOWL GAME – PASADENA, CA
BIG 10 VS PAC 12
#11 (10-2)
PENN STATE VS #8 (10-3) UTAH
-2.5.
winutes play physical and won the pac 12, but I'm still a little surprised they're chalk here. big 10 has looked good in the postseason to date... and the nitts are an impressive 16-3 su/17-2 ats in bowl games when they're off back/back su/ats wins. dogs in pasadena have covered 3 straight, too. w/utah seeing their best rb/best receiver opt out... I like penn state.