“What are your qualifications?”
“Ah. Well... I attended Juilliard... I'm a graduate of the Harvard business school. I travel quite extensively. I lived through the Black Plague and had a pretty good time during that. I've seen the EXORCIST ABOUT A HUNDRED AND SIXTY-SEVEN TIMES, AND IT KEEPS GETTING FUNNIER EVERY SINGLE TIME I SEE IT.”movie.... didn't know it initially but now that I was reminded I do remember it. michael keaton... hilarious. well, now that I was reminded it's cfb season, I've got some catching up to do.
WEEK 2ALL GAMES SATURDAY...(I THINK).
1. #10 NOTRE DAME AT
NC STATE +7.5
since marcus freeman lost his 1st 3 games as nd's head coach, the Irish have gone 11-2 su/8-5 ats since. and they've looked good out of the gate in '23, but a significant step up in competition. nd is 12-4-1 ats as road chalk and 8-1 ats vs their acc half-brothers, but the wolfpack have covered 3 straight as home dogs. plus, when Irish qb sam hartman was at wake forest, he got picked 6 times in '21-'22 playing nc state. hm. cfb nerd stat alert #1 of the season; since '82, game 3 road faves off back/back 25+ point win margins are just 12-27 ats, 4-19 ats vs foes who allow 20/less per game. home team keeps it interesting.
2.
PURDUE AT VIRGINIA TECH -3
won $$ on the hokies last week, which was promptly returned when I lost it on the boilermakers. vt is 0-3 su/ats lately vs big 10 opponents, and pu is 6-2 ats off a home fave loss. slight lean to the engineers/astronauts college.
3.
NEBRASKA AT #22 COLORADO -3
I think it's official; nebraska has become the eeyore of cfb. 2-14 su in their last 16 games decided by 1 score/less. what's that song from hee haw? if it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. gloom, despair, and agony on me. lol. maybe it changes now that everyone is on the coach prime bandwagon. buffs put up 565 yds of offense on tcu, but they also allowed 540. huskers outgained minnesota last week but were done in by 4 turnovers. I'm gambling that unl holds on to the ball here and calls back to past days of glory. cfb nerd stat alert #2; game 2 teams off an upset revenge win as +20/more dogs are 0-6 su/1-5 ats.
4. #12 UTAH AT
BAYLOR +7.5
I really like the bears here. I think this line is way too high. yes the utes held uf to 13 yards rushing last week but their offense didn't exactly light up the scoreboard. yes, their starting qb was out and is questionable this week (as is baylor's qb), but it's tougher on the road, where utah is just 4-7 ats as favorites, while bu is 5-2 ats as home dogs, 6-3 ats off a home loss.
5. #20
OLE MISS AT TULANE +7.5
tulane was one of last season's great stories, going 12-2 and ending up in the top 10. 1 of those losses was a 61-21 drubbing in oxford to the rebels. normally I'd like the revenge aspect here but the green wave is just 1-6 ats at home off a 10+ ats win going up against a team off a win. still think mississippi has too much of a talent edge, especially on defense,.
6. #23TEXAS A&M AT
MIAMI (FL) +4
last year the canes outgained the aggies 392-264 but could not get into the end zone, went 3-5 on fg attempts and lost 17-9. in the last 10 years miami is just 1-5 su/2-4 ats vs sec foes, but a&m is 4-13-1 ats in road openers, 0-4-1 ats as chalk of 3+. miami is also 13-5 su/ats as non-conference home dogs, 7-0 su/ats vs ooc opponents off a su win. university of miami.
7.
IOWA AT IOWA STATE +3.5
first team to 17 points wins? hawkeyes have won 7 of the last 8 battles for the cy-hawk trophy, but in their last 8 road games, iowa is averaging under 17 pts/game. isu is 7-1 ats the last 8 times they were getting points at home. what gives me pause, though, is the cyclones' new qb going up vs a still very good defense. ex-michigan qb cade mcnamara has experience in hostile environments, and I think that ends up being the difference here.
8. SOUTHERN METHODIST AT #18
OKLAHOMA -16
sooners took out a whole lot of '22 frustrations in a 73-0 blowout of arkansas st. mustangs will be a tougher out, but smu has lost 21 straight to big 12 opponents after the league shunned them from joining. ponies have another rookie qb making his 1st road start, and I thought gabriel looked very good last week for ou. as for trends, teams off a 60+ point win are 25-10 ats in game 2's, 17-5 ats at home. o-k-l-a-h-o-m-a
9. CINCINNATI AT
PITTSBURGH -7
under luke fickell, uc proved that non power-5 teams can assemble enough talent to be elite. the issue is how programs on those levels can backfill talent once an elite group departs. imho that's the challenge facing new bearcat coach scott satterfield. cincy was 0-3 as road dogs last year, and this season only 9 starters are back. panthers are a mediocre 8-11 ats as home chalk the last 4 years, but I think they're stronger on both sides of los vs a team that's in rebuild mode.
10. #11 TEXAS AT #3
ALABAMA -7
centerpiece game of the week. last yr the horns had alabama cornered til qb quinn ewers got banged up and tide stole a 20-19 win. I don't see this one being that close. nick saban's 28-2 su record vs former assistants is impressive enough on its own, but in those matchups where the line has been 18/less, he's unbeaten (14-0 su, 10-4 ats). texas is 1-5 ats on the ooc road, 3-9 ats vs sec opposition. I liked what I saw from jalen milroe running the offense, passing and running last week. the tide is 13-2-1 ats vs power 5 ooc foes. I think they pull away in the 2nd half.
11. #13 OREGON AT
TEXAS TECH +6.5
so the ducks put up 81 last week, tech blows a 17-0 lead losing in double ot to wyoming, and yet the line here is less than a td? hm. behind bo nix, uo's offense should be good again but at times last year their pass defense struggled, which is one thing the red raiders do well on offense. oregon is an insanely good 19-4-1 ats in road openers, but 0-3 ats vs big 12 foes lately. plus (cfb nerd stat alert #3) since 1980, game 2 favorites who scored 70+ points in their opener are just 2-7 ats. hm.
12. #19
WISCONSIN AT WASHINGTON STATE +6
I read one story on this game that said if this were 2024, this matchup would be big 18 vs pac 2. lol. upset alert for the badgers here.. cameron ward is a quality qb for wsu, who went into madison last season and pulled out a 17-14 win. but in that game uw had a 401-253 total yards edge. in this game, wisconsin still has the edge w/rb's braelon allen and chez mellusi, who led a rush attack that put up 314 yds.
13. AUBURN AT
CALIFORNIA +6
1st ever matchup as war eagle flies to no-cal. auburn rolled u-mass last week while cal put up 669 total yards in a win over north texas that a lot of folks were picking the other way. but they lost tcu-transfer starting qb ben johnson late in the 1st half to an injury. in comes nc state-transfer ben finley and he throws for 279 yds in just over 30 minutes. the bears are 6-2 ats the last 4 seasons as home dogs, 9-0 ats as ooc dogs since '14. this is only the 2nd time the tigers have been a road fave since 2020, 0-6 ats in their last 6 ooc road games. I think the bears can put up a scare here.
14.
OKLAHOMA STATE AT ARIZONA STATE +3
both teams struggled but won vs fcs competition last week. the cowboys are 8-1 su, 7-2 ats and 5-1 ats on the road vs pac 12 of late. osu is also 7-3 ats in their last 10 games as road chalk. sun devils just 1-3 ats getting points in tempe.
15.
ARIZONA AT MISSISSIPPI STATE -9
in '22 the cowbells went to tuscon and pounded 'zona 39-17. kind of surprised this line isn't higher... maybe the look-ahead factor w/lsu on deck next week? since I have some road to make up, I'm going to roll the dice on a backdoor cover here.
BONUS GAME
16. UCLA AT
SAN DIEGO STATE +14.5
aztecs are 6-0 ats as ooc home dogs of late. bruins are 15-1 su/12-3 ats in the series vs san diego st. trend; 2-0 home dogs are 17-11 ats since 2017. I'll take that.
