"You put a greased naked woman on all fours with a dog collar around her neck, and a leash, and a man's arm extended out up to here, holding onto the leash, and pushing a black glove in her face to sniff it. You don't find that offensive? You don't find that sexist?"
"This is 1982, Bobbi, c'mon!"me and bobbi mcgee? ballad of ricky bobbi? lol. no clue.
WEEK 6SATURDAY
1. #12
OKLAHOMA VS #3 TEXAS -6.5
nice spot imho for the sooners here. a year ago the horns dominated, 49-0, the 1st time I believe ou has every been shut out in the series, and texas is an amazingly awful 4-16 ats vs avenging opponents. in addition to the revenge factor, ou is 19-5 as big 12 dogs off back/back wins. since 1980, 5-0 single digit favorites are just 23-43-2 ats vs revenge. on the other side, 5-0 dogs since '80 are a solid 59-36-3 ats. mix in an improved defense, and a qb (gabriel) who has been the equal of quinn ewers, and I love the points here. oklahoma.
2.
MARYLAND (5-0) AT #4 OHIO STATE (4-0) -20
the terps also qualify for that 5-0 underdog stat. they've been bad in columbus (outscored 139-31 in the last 2 visits), but gave the bucks fits last season in a 43-30 loss, thx mostly to qb taulia tagovailoa, who's already thrown for 9000+ yds in his career. can the improved tosu defense contain his mobility? even though ohio state is 6-1-1 ats since '21 as big 10 home chalk of 15+, the offense this year is still trying to find its high flying footing, and the weather forecast is mid 50s/very windy which is an equalizer. the guys with the quilt state flag stay within arms' length.
3. #23 LSU (3-2) AT #21
MISSOURI (5-0) +5.5
well what do you know? another 5-0 underdog, and a home one to boot. here's an interesting stat. mizzou starting qb brady cook has not thrown a pick in nearly a year (10/22/22). w/lsu's defense allowing over 36 pts/game to fbs foes so far in '23... not a promising combination for a sec road favorite. ol' miss put up 706 yds on the bayou bengals (did iowa have that much in the entire month of sept??) in a 55-49 win. w/lsu 1-5 ats lately as road chalk of 5+, and the home tigers 6-2 ats as sec home dogs... missouri.
4.
RUTGERS (4-1) AT WISCONSIN (3-1)-13
badgers have won the previous 4 meetings by an average score of 42-8. despite talk of airing it out more in '23, uw still runs the ball, to the tune of 202 yds/game. braelan allen is averaging 7 yds/carry, but their #2 rb chez mollusk is now out for the season, and rutgers' defense is on a similar level to wisconsin's. the scarlet knights gave up a pick 6 in ann arbor that turned a close game into a more comfortable win for um. ru is 8-2-1 ats as big 10 road dogs of late. state u of new jersey in a low scoring (total is 47... take the under) game.
5.
MARSHALL (4-0) AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (3-2) -6.5
as of this weekend there are 21 fbs teams who've outgained their opponents in every game so far this season. dad's thundering herd is one of them. the herd is also 10-1 ats of late getting points on the road. the wolfpack is switching out struggling uva transfer qb brennan armstrong and going w/m.j. morris, who's more of an option option (ha), trying to improve an offense averaging just 307/game. but nc state is just 2-9 ats as home chalk, and they have duke up next week. give me the green,
6. #13
WASHINGTON STATE AT UCLA -3.5
the underdog has covered 6 straight in this series. and here's a cfb nerd stat alert for the ages; qb cam ward led the cougars to a 38-35 upset win 2 weeks ago at oregon st. the last 17 times wsu has been off a su win as an underdog, they've won the next game. wow. nerd stat #2; ucla is just 4-11 ats in games when both teams come in off a bye... and the bruins last game was a 14-7 loss at utah where they were held to 243 total yds on offense, and their true freshman qb played like a true freshman qb. washington st.
7. #11 ALABAMA AT
TEXAS A&M +1.5
qb questions abound in college station this week. aggie starter connor weigman was knocked out for the year 2 weeks ago vs auburn, forcing a shift w/max johnson away from a pass-heavy approach to a more run-oriented game plan in a 34-22 win at arkansas last week. meanwhile nick saban sidestepped addressing whispers that starter jalen milrose is hurt. actually it was pretty funny how he did that... a local weatherman was a guest on his coach's show last night, and asked about the rumor. saban responded by questioning (paraphrasing here) why a trained meteorologist would pay any attention to social media. lol. in 3 straight wins over usf, ol' miss and miss st, alabama has still looked sluggish on offense (341 yds/game average), not an encouraging sign vs a quality a&m defense, and they're just 2-7 ats lately as road chalk. now all of those games featured the tide as double digit favorites, but in the last 7 games alabama has been a regular season single digit road favorite, they're 2-5 ats. texas a&m
8. SYRACUSE (4-1) AT #14
NORTH CAROLINA (4-0) -8
I lost some $$ on the orange last week, when clemson held them to 286 total yds in a 31-14 win. can su come back in chapel hill? I say no... and no, it's not just because I'm bitter.
. unc has been significantly better, vs much tougher competition. 'cuse is 1-4 ats as acc single digit dogs, 1-8 ats off a loss. in my mind, I'm going to carolina.
9.
PURDUE (2-3) AT IOWA (4-1) -2
purdue pummeled illinois 44-19 last week in an impressive win. later that night, I watched iowa beat sparty 26-16 despite gaining just 222 total yds, a week after gaining 76 yds and scoring 0 pts vs psu in state college. plus starting qb cade mcnamara was lost for the season w/a knee injury. the visiting team is 12-1 ats in this series... and I just don't think the hawkeye defense/special teams can score enough points to even cover a 2 pt spread. purdue.
10. WAKE FOREST (3-1) AT
CLEMSON (3-2) -21
did dabo turn a corner after clemson's win at syracuse? good question... the d looked dominant and the offense avoided the turnover bug that's plagued them so far this season. all the trends say it ends tomorrow; the tigers are just 5-9 ats as -10/more favorites, just 2-5 ats as acc chalk of -13/more, while wake is 9-0 ats off a home favorite loss (a 30-16 puzzler to ga tech, who then lost last saturday to bowling green), 5-1 ats off a bye, 6-2 ats as acc dogs of 13+. but most of those numbers were achieved when sam hartman was qb-ing there, instead of his current home in south bend. don't like rolling big numbers in league games but I think given the chance sweeney rolls up the scoreboard to give his team some feel-good. clemson.
11. #20
KENTUCKY (5-0) AT #1 GEORGIA (5-0) -14.5
the 5-0 underdog/5-0 favorite trends I mentioned earlier are in play in athens as well. uk's ray davis ran thru the gators' solid (at least until last week) defense to the tune of 280 yds in an impressive 33-14 win. beating uga is a different animal but I think they have a legit shot. uk is 8-1 ats off a win vs a foe off a win, 5-1 ats as sec dogs of 14+, and 15-3 ats the past 6 years w/sec revenge. georgia has stumbled out of the blocks weekly so far in '23, scoring just 17 1st qtr pts in 5 games. their yds per carry average so far is 4.4; in '22 it was 5.5. new offensive coordinator, new qb, just not the well-oiled machine they've been the previous 2 years. still think georgia wins, but in this point spread battle of dawgs and 'cats, I'm taking the dog, which in this case is the cat.
12. UCF (3-2) AT
KANSAS (4-1) -2
1st ever meeting between these 2. last week ucf blew a 35-7 3rd qtr lead at baylor, losing 36-35. jayhawks lost 40-14 at texas after their starting qb jalon daniels injured his back pre-game. knights are hoping they get qb john rhys plumlee back, who's missed the last 3 weeks after a leg injury. ucf is 3-8 ats off back/back losses, 1-4 ats as road dogs of late. ku is 6-0 su/ats as home chalk. kansas.
13. #10 NOTRE DAME (5-1) AT #25
LOUISVILLE (5-0) +6.5
the Irish rally in durham to beat duke 21-14 made it 29 straight wins (21-8 ats) vs acc opponents. but off 2 physical, down to the wire game vs the blue devils/tosu, and w/usc on the horizon next week, this game screams let down/upset alert. I'm guessing the cards were looking ahead themselves last week, slipping by nc state 13-10, and the fact that nd beat the wolfpack 45-17 a couple weeks earlier is inflating this line. l'ville is just 3-7 ats as home dogs of 14/less. both are averaging around 190/game rushing, but my question is can the cardinals' overall speed edge make a difference? louisville keeps it close.
14. #24 FRESNO STATE (5-0) AT
WYOMING (4-1) +6
looking forward to keeping my eyes on this game saturday night. bulldogs might be the only team in the country to own 2 ooc road wins vs power 5 opponents (39-35 at purdue, 29-0 at arizona st), while the cowboys play their 5th home game in 6 weeks, and the 1 road game was in austin where they had texas literally on the ropes for 3+ qtrs. fresno qb mikey reese has impressed, averaging nearly 300 yds/game in the air... complimenting a defense that's allowed just 19 pts the past 3 games. but f-s-u is just 2-5 ats as league chalk of 7/less, and wyoming is 8-2 ats as home underdogs. and fresno qualifies for that 5-0 single digit road fave vs revenge stat I mentioned earlier. wyoming has lost 4 straight in the series, haven't scored a td vs fresno st since '17, hasn't won since '14. that's motivation. wyoming.
15.
ARIZONA (3-4) AT #9 USC (5-0) -21.5
trojans have won 10 straight vs ua but the wildcats have covered the last 3, and gave washington all they could handle last week behind a backup qb (can't remember his name) before losing 31-24. usc's defense is allowing opponents to gain 65 yds above their season average, while 'zona's d is holding foes 38 yds/game below season average. plus southern cal is just 8-16-1 ats as pac 12 chalk of 20+, while arizona is a $$-making 14-6 ats as league dogs of 17+ (6-0 ats vs unbeaten opponents). mix in the trojans' trip to nd next week and this line looks a td too high to me. arizona.(btw their record is 3-2, not 3-4)
BONUS GAME (JUST FOR NU5)
FRIDAY
16.
NEBRASKA (2-3) AT ILLINOIS (2-3) -3.5
illini have covered 4 straight in the series, including a 29-7 win in lincoln last yr holding the huskers to 248 total yds, but the stars from that defense are gone, a big reason why u of I is not just 0-5 ats in '23, but has been outgained in all 5 games, too. despite getting blown out by um a week ago, unl is a very solid road dog of late (15-5-1 ats). actually not sure why illinois is favored here. nebraska.
. unc has been significantly better, vs much tougher competition. 'cuse is 1-4 ats as acc single digit dogs, 1-8 ats off a loss. in my mind, I'm going to carolina.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
