"Refund? Refund? Are you crazy?! Refund? Refund? Refund?"uh oh. I have no idea on this one. but 'horrible bosses' last week was a great choice.
GAMESALL GAMES SATURDAY(RANKINGS ARE CFP RANK)
12:00
1. #1 OHIO STATE (8-0) AT
RUTGERS (6-2) +18.5
bucks have absolutely owned this series since state u of nj joined the big 10 in '14, winning all 9 games by an average of 42 pts. that said, tosu comes in off another physical game in madison, leaving a starting safety injured/out and mccord w/a banged up leg, and greg schiano has the scarlet knights playing well on d. r-u comes in off 2 straight wins and bye, and they're 8-1 ats w/rest. bucks are just 1-4-1 ats on the big 10 road of late, 5-10-1 ats when unbeaten playing a .750+ opponent. I fear 18 is a point too much. hope I'm wrong. rutgers.
2. #23
KANSAS STATE (6-2) AT #7 TEXAS (7-1) -4
off 3 straight wins/covers, ksu now takes on the 'horns who've won 6 straight in the series, w/5 of those wins by a td/less. these are 2 of the 5 teams tied atop the big 12 at 4-1. cfb nerd stat #1 of the week; the wildcats are 12-4-1 ats since '19 facing a league foe off a su/ats win, which includes 8 straights wins/covers. wow. texas is 3-6 ats lately as chalk of less than 7, plus I'm wondering if k-state will be a much tougher defense to figure out for frosh qb maalik murphy. ut is also 3-16 ats after scoring 35+ when taking on a team w/revenge. that's interesting. kansas state.
3.
TEXAS A&M (5-3) AT #10 OLE MISS (7-1) -3
well the aggies cost me $$ last week, which happens every time I take them as a favorite. you'd think I'd learn. and it scares me when I look at this one and see a mild upset. rebels have the edge on offense but I think a&m's defense has a bigger edge. mississippi is just 1-6 ats of late as home sec chalk. texas a&m.
4. #15 NOTRE DAME (7-2) AT
CLEMSON ( 4-4) +3
when the schedule came out, this game looked like the acc/pseudo acc matchup of the year. clemson's offense has struggled again this year, averaging just 19 pts/game vs league opponents. they also haven't covered a game since sept. while the irish have looked like a freight train the last 2 weeks, beating usc/pitt by a combined 106-27. nd is also 30-1 su/22-9 ats vs acc foes (if they'd just go ahead and join the league they'd have 3 titles already). but the tigers' defense is for real. cu outgained nc state 349-206 last week but lost 24-17 thanks in large part to 2 picks, one that went for a td. notre dame is +8 in turnover ratio and if that trend continues they win. but clemson hasn't lost 3 straight games since 2010, and I think their d keeps them in this. plus (cfb nerd stat alert) dabo swinney is 5-0 ats in game where the total is 45/less. clemson.
2:00P
5.
ARIZONA STATE (2-6) AT #18 UTAH (6-2) -11
the sun devils are the best 2-6 team in the country, especially if you've been on them the last 5 weeks (all covers). they now go to salt lake city w/triple revenge vs the utes who got drilled by the ducks 35-6, dumping a lot of cold water on their chances to make it back to the pac 12 title game. utah has a high profile game at washington next week too. asu's defense is holding opponents to 341 total yds/game, that's 12th in fbs. they're also 12-4 ats as pac 12 road dogs. arizona state.
3:30P
6. #12
MISSOURI (7-1) AT #2 GEORGIA (8-0) -15.5
uga has covered just 2 games this season, but they've been vs the 2 best opponents they've faced so far (uk, uf last week). now they face a mizzou team who gave them their biggest regular season scare a year ago (26-22). the tigers are 6-0 ats as +13/more road dogs off a 10+ win too,. the bulldogs are also just 2-10 ats of late off a 10+ win when facing a team off a bye week. georgia fans may be looking forward more to ol' miss next week, but I think they should pay attention this week. missouri makes it interesting.
7. #9 OKLAHOMA (7-1) AT #22
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-2) +6
c'mon guys. this can't be the last bedlam game; get this figured out. sooners have won 7 of the last 8 in the series, covering the last 4. but they're off a tough loss at kansas which followed a sleepwalking close win over ucf. cowboys come in playing much better, winning/covering 4 straight. and if ou couldn't stop ku's run game last week (225 yds), osu's ollie gordon (5 straight games of 100+, including 553 yds the last 2 weeks) has to be licking his chops. oklahoma is 4-15-1 ats as big 12 road faves of 6/more; okie state meanwhile is 8-0 ats as home dogs of 14/less and 8 of the last 10 times they've been a home dog, they've won outright. oklahoma state
8. #11 PENN STATE (7-1) AT
MARYLAND (5-3) +9.5
nitts are 7-2 su/7-1 ats of late in this series. terps had a baffling 33-24 loss at n'western last week, where they gave up 6 qb sacks. that's troubling vs a psu defense who comes in w/32 sacks in '23. maryland is also just 7-14 ats as big 10 home dogs and 10-24 ats vs ranked opponents. that said, penn state has michigan up next (rumor has it connor stalion is already at secu stadium, disguised as a chain gang member) so there's the look ahead factor. james franklin is just 9-17-2 ats in his career on the road vs .600+ opponents. and the turtles' offense is still good; they've outgained 7 of the 8 teams they've faced this year. maryland.
9. VIRGINIA TECH (4-4) AT #13
LOUISVILLE (7-1) -9.5
kudos to tech, who followed up a 3 game losing streak by winning 3 of its last 4 behind a defense allowing just 316 yds/game and baylor transfer qb kyron drones. but the cards' offense is outgaining foes by 144 yds/game and a d that's giving up just 247/game in their last 4 contests. 'ville has also played the much tougher schedule. louisvile
10. JAMES MADISON (8-0) AT
GEORGIA STATE (6-2) +5.5
jmu is one of the great cfb stories of the season to date. a year ago vs georgia st the dukes were down 34-14 at the half and came back for a 42-40 win. key matchup here is james madison's run d (allowing 49 yds/game) vs the panthers' strong rush game (191 average). gsu is 5-0 ats off a 10+ ats loss (27-44 last week to ga southern), 11-4 ats in their last 15 games. georgia state.
4:00P
11. #21 KANSAS (6-2) AT
IOWA STATE (5-3) -2.5
ku hangover after the upset win over the sooners? I think so. jayhawks are 2-5 ats in big 12 road games off a su upset win as a dog. isu has revenge after a 14-11 loss to ku in '22 and they're 11-2 ats as big 12 home chalk of 7/less. cyclones have the much better defense, and should be able to run on a kansas front 7 giving up 207 yds/game on the ground. iowa state.
12.
BYU (5-3) AT WEST VIRGINIA (5-3) -10
after a 5-1 start to get neal brown off the coaching hot seat, the mountaineers stopped a 2 game losing streak w/a 41-28 win at ucf, while byu lost at texas 35-6. those 2 results I think are inflating this line more than it should. wvu is 0-7 ats as big 12 home chalk vs a foe off a 10+ su loss, they've been outgained in their last 5 games and the 'eers haven't covered a double digit spread as a favorite since october 2018. even though the cougars have not been good on defense vs league opponents, and have struggled on offense... brigham young.
4:30P
13. #5 WASHINGTON (8-0) AT #20
USC (7-2) +3.5
huskies are off 4 straight wins of 9/less (0-4 ats). a sign that the pac 12 is good or that uw isn't quite as dominant? hm. they're 2-8 ats as road favorites, 3-8 ats vs league opponents .666+. in the history of this series, uw is just 2-8-1 ats as chalk vs the trojans. when playing at the la coliseum, usc is 7-3 ats as an underdog vs unbeaten foes. another tidbit; this is lincoln riley's 7th year as a head coach (5 at oklahoma, in year 2 at troy) and he's never been a home dog before. it's deserved this week, plus southern cal hasn't covered a game since week 3 and you wonder about their motivation at this point. as much as I think that michael penix should have his way vs a porous usc defense, washington has allowed 32 pts to cal, 33 (and should've been more) vs oregon and 33 last week to a bad stanford team. goes down to the last possession, and i'll fight on w/sc. btw, the total is a whopping 75 1/2 and I still think the over is the play.
4:45P
14. #14 LSU (6-2) AT #8
ALABAMA (7-1) -3
here's a philosophical football question; which amplifies the other more, a mediocre offense going up vs a swiss cheese defense, or an electric offense overcoming a stout d? I think lsu's struggles to stop anyone combined w/injuries (3 starters in the secondary + dt mehki wingo) will be too much of a burden to bear. winner in this game has gone on to represent the sec west in 10 of the last 12 years. the tigers' offensive numbers have been unbelievable; 500+ total yards in 7 straight games behind qb jayden daniels (25 td's, just 3 int's, 2573 yds passing, 5 rushing td's to boot). the trends lean toward lsu also; 6-0 ats off a bye, 7-0 as road dogs vs opponents who are off 10+ wins. that said, the tide is 16-5-1 of late as home chalk, 7-2 ats the last 9 times as a single digit favorite. alabama.
7:30P
15. #19
UCLA (6-2) AT ARIZONA (5-3) +2.5
when it comes to national coach of the year honors, ua's jedd fisch should be in the running. in '21 he took over a program that had lost 11 straight games, and he lost his first 8 games on his was to a 1-11 season. in '22, the wildcats improved to 5-7. this year, he's 5-3 w/2 near misses (uw, usc) and all 3 losses by a td/less. one of those wins last year was a 34-28 upset at ucla as a 20 pt dog. so there's a revenge factor, there's the bruins' 7-1 ats record of late as road chalk, their defense who allows just 15 pts/game, and there's 'zona's 0-5 ats record off a home underdog win. ucla.
