WEEK 11“Oh, this your wife, huh? A lovely lady. Hey baby, you must've been something before electricity.”THE GAMES (ALL TIMES EST)
RANKINGS ARE CFPR
SATURDAY12:00A1. #3 MICHIGAN (9-0) AT #10
PENN STATE (8-1)+4.5
(O/U=45.5)
last year um was behind 17-16 early in the 3rd qtr to psu, then ran in, out, around and thru the nitts to the tune of 418 yds rushing, scoring the game's final 25 pts. the bad news for the ugly hats is that that run game has backed up a step or 2 in '23, and psu's defense is much improved. the good news is that j.j. mccarthy is much improved, to the point that his playmaking, accuracy and mobility are a true 'x' factor here. the bad news for psu is that qb drew allar is, at least to this point, is no j.j. mccarthy. the good news is that defense, which has caused 20 turnovers so far this season. a couple sudden changes could fire up a beaver stadium crowd that's already a pain for visiting teams. as for cfb nerd stat alert-type trends? since 1980, unbeaten regular season road favorites from game 9 on, facing .666+ opponents, are 28-44-1 ats. when those opponents allow 15 or less/game, those favorites are 6-19 ats. and when that underdog team is also off a 20+ win, the chalk is 1-11 ats. penn state.
2. #8 ALABAMA (8-1) AT
KENTUCKY (6-3) +10.5
(O/U=48.5)
tide has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country so far this year, and they're off 3 physical high-profile games (a&m, vols, lsu) where qb jalen milroe has looked better and better, and I'm wondering if there's an 'exhale' factor vs uk. although the fact that the wildcats have been held under 300 total yds in 3 of the last 4 games. still, alabama's performance vs the tigers has not been their norm in '23. this will be uk's final home game of the season, and they're 4-0 ats in home finales of late, as well as 5-0 ats as sec home dogs of 4+. in their last 9 games as sec road chalk of 3/more vs .500+ opponents, 'bama is just 2-7 ats. looking for a big blue backdoor here.
3. MARYLAND (5-4) AT
NEBRASKA (5-4) +2.5
(O/U=44.5)
how bad is the big 10 west? the terps started 5-0, have lost 4 straight including a 51-15 pasting at penn state saturday, and yet they're still a road favorite over a huskers team that's tied for 2nd in their division. unl crapped down their leg to a bad sparty team 20-17, thanks to 3 turnovers and a beat up o-line. but now they're at home, where they average about 10 more pts/game, and the huskers actually have a very solid defense (276 yds/game allowed), plus the children of the corn are 4-0 ats of late in games where both teams are off a loss. I say nebraska wins, and becomes bowl eligible for the 1st time since obama was president ('16)
4.
GEORGIA TECH (5-4) AT CLEMSON (5-4) -14.5
(O/U=55.5)
I really like the ramblin' wreck here, who are a $$-making 8-1 ats as road dogs the last 9 games. I know dabo was buying tiger stock after upsetting the Irish, but it was more due to 3 nd turnovers (1 a pick 6); the tigers offense still stumbled along (286 total yds). clemson is just 1-5 ats of late off a su win, and (cfb nerd stat alert) teams off an upset win over notre dame where they covered by 10+ are 0-15-1 ats when favored vs .600/less opponents. a clemson run d which gives up just 108/game allowed nearly 200 to nd, and the yellow jackets are averaging 300+ rushing the last 3 weeks. even tho' tech is just 1-6-1 ats in the series of late, I think the run game = a close game.
3:305.
MIAMI (6-3) AT #4 FLORIDA STATE (9-0) -14.5
(O/U=50.5)
the dog in this series is 18-7 ats of late, w/12 outright upset wins. and the canes have revenge from a 45-3 absolute drubbing last year that wasn't that even that close. fsu slept-walked thru a 24-7 win at pitt minus their top 2 we's (yet jordan travis still threw for 360), while miami turnovers led to a 20-6 loss at nc state in a game where their defense held the wolfpack to just 216 total yards. canes are still 10-3 ats as an underdog vs the 'noles, and the home team in this series is just 2-7 ats of late. and here's a weird stat; florida st is 0-10 ats off a win as a favorite when facing an opponent off a loss as a favorite. the hurricanes' propensity to give the ball away is troubling, but I'll take a chance. miami fl.
6. #13 TENNESSEE (7-2) AT #14
MISSOURI (7-2) +1
(O/U=58.5)
mizzou earned more respect last week between the hedges in that loss to georgia, but can the tigers bounce back after that physical test? apparently they didn't impress vegas who has them getting points at home. vols give up just 97 yds/game rushing and have 30 qb sacks, along w/3 really good rb's who've gained 1600+ yds averaging 6.2/carry. that said, tennessee is just 3-6 ats of late vs .750+ sec opponents, and their 3 road games in '23? losses to florida, alabama, and a dicey 6 pt win at uk. plus the tigers have revenge from 4 straight losses to ut, including a 66-24 spanking last year. and another cfb nerd stat nugget; since '80, teams who lose but cover vs the defending national champs are 47-28-1 ats at home the following game. missouri.
7. #18
UTAH (7-2) AT #5 WASHINGTON (9-0) -9.5
(O/U=53.5)
utes took out a lot of oregon frustration on ariz st (55-3) while uw finally put away the trojans in a 52-42 track meet. 1st time since '20 that these 2 have played. michael penix may be the huskies' heisman hopeful but it was a here-to-for unknown rb, dillon johnson, who put up 4 td's/256 yds rushing on usc's 'ole' tackling defense. utah's will have more technique, for sure. utah will also bring a 9-1 ats record of late as road dogs of 10/less, and a 14-3 ats record overall getting points away from Salt Lake City. washington had stumbled heading into last week (0-4 ats) and have historically stumbled after the week playing troy (0-12 ats). utah stays close.
8. #15 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-2) AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA (4-5) +2.5
(O/U=64.5)
1st ever meeting between these 2, and you have to think ucf couldn't have picked a better time, on the heels of the cowboys win over oklahoma. I've never been to stillwater (harry, is there a reason I should? lol) but I imagine that was a fun scene last saturday night. the knights front 7 on defense have allowed an average of 281 yds/game rushing the last 4 weeks, not a good premise to face osu's ollie gordon, who already has over 1200 yds on the ground. but not only is osu off the ou win (they're 1-9 ats after playing the sooners), they're off 5 straight wins/covers, 4 of them as a dog. ucf came within a fg of beating oklahoma in norman 3 weeks ago, and now they're a home dog for just the 2nd time since 2016. central florida shocker?
9. RUTGERS (6-3) AT #22
IOWA (7-2) -1.5
(O/U=28.5)
so, does kirk ferentz deserved to be fired for having his son lead one of the most inept offenses in cfb history? or does he deserve coach of the year recognition for being 7-2 (should be 8-1; that punt return td vs minnesota should have counted) purely on defense/special teams? the total for this game is just 28.5, and the line opened at iowa -5 so a lot of $$ has flowed over to state u of nj. those bettors may not know that the hawkeyes are 20-10-1 ats as big 10 home chalk of 7/less, and 7-0 ats off a su win/ats loss. the scarlet knights have a great road ats record (11-3-1) of late, and they rushed for 200+ on a good tosu defense, but their shaky qb play figures to struggle even more in iowa city. iowa.
10. TEXAS STATE (6-3) AT
COASTAL CAROLINA (6-3) +1
(O/U=58.5)
last week's 45-24 win over georgia southern made texas st bowl eligible for the 1st time in program history, which should have made the texas town of san marcos a little more exciting (harry? should I go to san marcos? kind of like the town's name. ha) and the bobcats have covered 3 straight vs ccu. tough game to call w/the qb questions for the chanticleers (does starter gordon mccall clear concussion protocol or does backup ethan vasko get the start, who threw the winning td last week at old dominion?) but they have excelled as home dogs lately (5-1 ats). coastal carolina
11. #9 MISSISSIPPI (8-1) AT #2
GEORGIA (9-0) -10.5
(O/U=58.5)
well it's november, which means it's time to ask whether the rebels are for real. in 6 of the last 9 non-covid seasons, the answer has been 'no' if you judge by whether ol' miss has lost at least 2 games in the final month of the season. and the task gets taller taking on the two-time defending sec/national champs under the lights. these 2 haven't played since '16, which is kind of hard to believe. dawgs are 9-3 ats as sec chalk of 13/less. the rebels are just 2-6 ats as road dogs of late. usually it's a good idea to fade unbeatens late in the season, but here's a plus (cfb nerd stat alert); since 1988, 9-0 home teams in game 10 are 33-11-1 ats vs opponents off a win. georgia.
7:00P12. WEST VIRGINIA (6-3) AT #17
OKLAHOMA (7-2) -12.5
(O/U=58.5)
the battle of the shermans! (harry, you're obviously a subplot of my picks this week... that's how bad this season has been to date. lol) 2 teams headed in diametrically opposite direction, w/the sooners off 2 tough, close 4th qtr losses at kansas and okla st., while the 'eers have found their offense, averaging nearly 38 pts/game their last 4. last year wvu broke a 9 game losing streak to ou, but they'e 1-9 ats facing a team off back/back losses, and the sooners are 24-0 su/16-7 ats in home games off a loss. oklahoma.
7:30P13. #7 TEXAS (8-1) AT
TEXAS CHRISTIAN (4-5) +10
(O/U=53.5)
texas got very very lucky last week in their win vs kansas st. now they take on the horned frogs, who are 7-3 su/ats vs the longhorns since joining the big 12. plus tcu, despite their mediocre record, has outgained 8 of its 9 opponents so far in '23. plus the last 10 times the loser of the previous year's cfb playoff final has been an underdog, they've covered 8 times. I'll take a chance on tcu.
14.
FLORIDA (5-4) AT LSU #19 (6-3) -14
(O/U=63.5)
wow did jayden daniels look impressive last week at alabama. but w/him still under concussion protocol and questionable for saturday, combined with the disappointment of now being out of the sec west race, that's tough to overcome in terms of mojo. dog has covered 6 of the last 7 in this series, and uf comes in more desperate for a win to become bowl eligible. florida.
8:00P15. DUKE (6-3) AT #24
NORTH CAROLINA (7-2) -14
(O/U=50.5)
unc has gone in 3 weeks from cfb playoff contender to acc also ran, after back/back close losses to lower tier virginia and ga tech. heels have won 5 straight in the series, and duke qb riley leonard is out for this one. backup henry belin got dinged up too, leaving true frosh qb grayson loftis, who did help beat wake forest 24-21 last week, despite being outgained 400-267 in total yds. north carolina
10:3016
. USC (7-3) AT #6 OREGON (8-1) -16.5
(O/U=73.5)
usc haș not covered a game since sept 9; that's 7 straight, which is really hard to do. trojan dc alex grinch is gone, after his d gave up 266 pts in the last 6 games. that's 44.5/game. and now they have to go to eugene to face a uo team averaging 47+/game. ugh. my question is, does coach lincoln riley still have the locker room after losing 3 of 4? the trojans are just 3-8 ats on the road vs .800+ opponents, but they're also 11-4 ats in games after allowing 48+. the ducks are 1-4 ats giving 10+ at home vs a foe off a double digit loss. the favorite in this series is 10-3 ats of late, but I'm going george costanza on this one, doing the opposite. usc.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
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