WEEK 12"All right, Mr. Stone. We came very close to killing your wife. But she begged us, repeatedly, for just one more chance. So in the spirit of compassion and mercy, we decided not to kill her just yet.
"Compassion and mercy?" What the hell's going on over there?" at first I thought it might be from 'doc hollywood' but in that movie michael j. fox was dr. stone. is this the flick where bette midler gets kidnapped? can't remember the title...
ALL GAMES SATURDAY (EST)12:00P1. #9 LOUISVILLE (9-1) AT
MIAMI (6-4) +1
(O/U=46.5)
'ville just 2-8 ats as road chalk of late, and 7-16-1 ats since 2018 in road games.. while the canes are 5-2 as home dogs since mid-season/2015. the cards looked vulnerable on defense vs virigina last week, and I thought miami had a gutty performance in the 27-20 loss to fsu. u of miami.
2. SMU (8-2) AT
MEMPHIS (8-2) +8.5
(O/U=66.5)
winner here likely makes it to the aac title game. tigers have yet to cover a game at home, but they're still 8-1 ats as home dogs of 3+, 8-1 ats the last 9 games in this series. smu has the much better defense, but good home team getting a td plus in their season home finale... I like it. memphis
3.
APPALACHIAN STATE (6-4) AT #18 JAMES MADISON (10-0) -9
(O/U=55.5)
jmu lost another request to the ncaa to set aside the 2nd year of their fcs to fbs bowl ban, which is too bad. that should add some motivational fuels for the dukes, who are already 7-2 ats this season. after a slow 3-4 start, appy st has found a groove, winning its last 3 games. they also have some revenge from last year's 32-28 loss. asu is also 7-3 ats as road dogs since '19. appalachian st.
2:30P4. #16
UTAH (7-3) AT #19 ARIZONA (7-3) -1
(O/U=44.5)
for just the 3rd time this century, utah is an underdog vs u of a. getting points isn't so bad for the utes, who are an amazing 15-3 ats since '14 as road dogs. both defense are solid; on offense the wildcats prefer slinging it around while utah favors the run. 'zona still has a sliver of hope to get in the pac 12 title game (win out, plus uw losing its last 2), but being a league home chalk is a rare occurrence. plus in the last 4+ seasons, they are just 2-7 ats as favorites. I'll stick with utah, who's won 6 straight in the series.
3:00P5. DUKE (6-4) AT
VIRGINIA (2-8) +4
(O/U=47.5)
both have lost 3 straight games, and both have backup qb's starting. duke comes in off a tough double ot loss to unc, and the blue devils are a putrid 2-11 su/3-9-1 ats after taking on the tar heels. uva had louisville on the ropes last week before losing 31-24, their 5th loss by 7/less. cavs have also won 7 of the last 8 in the series. virginia.
3:30P6. #1 GEORGIA (10-0) AT #21
TENNESSEE (7-3) +10
(O/U=58.5)
after a 1st half schedule that was softer than a wolverine's, uga now faces a 4th straight (yes, hard to believe but uf was ranked when they played, followed by a tough win over mizzou and a laugher vs ol' miss) tough opponent, even though the vols got blown out by missouri a week ago. bulldogs have won 4 straight in the series, and covered 3 straight in knoxville, but I'm wondering if there's any cumulative effect factor here for georgia, especially since tennessee's strength is a front 4 who can get to the qb, they're 9-1 ats at home since the beginning of '22, and 6-0 ats off their last 6 losses. the dawgs are also just 1-6 ats this year off a double digit win. plus here's a cfb nerd stat alert for you; defending national champs are 0-6 ats as road chalk vs .700+ opponents who are off a su/ats loss. vols give georgia a scare. btw kudos to these 2 for actually playing a league game in week 11 like the rest of the cfb world does, vs the exhibition/fcs opponents most of the sec gets away with in the next to last week of the regular season .
7. #22
NORTH CAROLINA (8-2) AT CLEMSON (6-4) -6.5
(O/U=58.5)
tigers finally put a game together vs georgia tech, winning total yards 465-254 and the scoreboard 42-21 (lost some $$ on that one, off their win over nd). but I'm shocked this number is nearly a td, even tho they've won 4 in a row over unc. heels are 4-1 ats as acc road dogs of 7/less, they've outgained all but 1 of their opponents this year, they're +11 in turnover ratio and still have the better qb in drake mayo. north carolina.
8.
UCLA (6-4) AT USC (7-4) -6.5
(O/U=65.5
after the 1st saturday in october, these 2 teams were a combined 10-1. since then, they're a combined 3-7. this is the trojans' season finale. usc covered at oregon despite allowing 552 yds to the ducks. ucla allowed just 250 total yds to arizona st yet was shocked 17-7. troy has won 6 of the last 8 battles for the victory bell but they're 0-5 ats as home chalk. bruins are beat up at qb but have still outgained 9 of their 10 opponents, and I like dogs w/that track record. u... c... l... a... u-c-l-a fight-fight-fight
9. UNLV (8-2) AT
AIR FORCE (8-2) -3
(O/U=47.5)
winner here goes to the mwc title game. 2 weeks ago, the falcons were on a 13 game win streak. then they went -10 in turnovers during losses to army and hawaii. you could make an argument that, to date, the rebels are the strongest opponents michigan has faced, and they've covered 8 of their 9 lined games this year. they're also 9-3 ats as road dogs since '21. both teams are solid vs the run, but air force's qb and top 2 rb's are banged up and still questionable here, which is likely why the line is so low. with this being the flyboys' 1st home game in a month, I'm going to gamble they hold on to the ball. air force.
4:00P10.
NEW MEXICO STATE (8-3) AT AUBURN (6-4) -24
(O/U=48.5)
auburn started out 3-0, then lost 4 straight sec games before 3 straight wins over miss st, vandy and arkansas. I'm wondering if that's inflated this line, even w/the iron bowl on the horizon next week. jerry kill deserves coach of the year consideration for what he's done at new mexico st, who'd won more than 3 games just once in the last decade prior to his arrival last year (7-6 w/their first bowl game since the mid 60s I think). the aggies have won 6 straight and covered 8 in a row in '23. war eagle is 3-7 ats vs non-power 5 opponents in november of late, and the last 7 times a sec team has been off back/back wins playing a fcs team in week 11, they're just 1-6 ats. backdoor cover for the visitors.
11.
OREGON (9-1) AT ARIZONA STATE (3-7) +23.5
(O/U=53.5)
ducks are 5-0 ats of late as pac 12 road chalk of 15+, 7-2 ats as road chalk overall, 5-0 ats vs foes off a su dog win. they do have the civil war vs oregon st up next, and asu has covered 3 straight in the series but they haven't played each other since '19 and the sun devils are 0-6 ats off a 10+ ats win. oregon.
12. CENTRAL FLORIDA (5-5) AT
TEXAS TECH (5-5) -3
(O/U=60.5)
each need a win to be bowl eligible. ucf won the '23 award for biggest blowout upset w/their 45-3 drubbing of oklahoma st. a week after their upset of oklahoma, and I think the golden knights will have similar issues in lubbock. even though they held the cowboys to 25 yds rushing, they still average giving up 281 yds/game on the ground, and texas tech has a good rb in tahj brooks, who has 1170 yds this yr. they also know that, w/texas on deck, that this is the best bet to get to 6 wins. been cool seeing john rhys plumlee return from injury at qb for ucf, but I like the red raiders to ride roughshod.
7:00P13. #23
KANSAS STATE (7-3) AT KANSAS (7-3) +8
(O/U=56.5)
I believe this is just the 2nd time ever that these 2 have met when both were ranked in one of the polls. ku is 6-3 ats as big 12 dogs of 10/less and on a 9-2-1 ats run at home, while ksu is just 7-14-1 ats off a su win as chalk vs a .700+ opponent. the wildcats have won 14 straight in the rivalry (11-3 ats), and the jayhawks are down to their 3rd string qb. too much to overcome for the home dog... kansas state.
7:30P14. #5
WASHINGTON (10-0) AT #10 OREGON STATE (8-2) -2.5
(O/U=63.5)
no one has a tougher final stretch than the beavers, who host the huskies then go to oregon. uw is on their 3rd straight high profile game, getting wins over usc and utah. osu ran for 277 on stanford last week in a 62-17 rout, and is on a 17-1 su/ats run in corvallis, but they're 1-10 su in the series of late. the huskies have had 6 straight games where they won by 10/less. but it's strange they're an underdog here. love 10-0 teams getting points. washington.
15.
FLORIDA (5-5) AT #11 MISSOURI (8-2) -11.5
(O/U=58.5)
mizzou has been a blast to watch this year, but I think this spread might be too tall to leap off the uga loss/revenge win over the vols. gators are 19-8-1 ats as sec dogs vs teams off a su/ats win, 9-0-1 ats in that scenario when getting 10+. florida,
16. KENTUCKY (6-4) AT
SOUTH CAROLINA (4-6) +2
(O/U=54.5)
uk has been held under 300 total yds in 4 of its last 5 games and has in-state rival louisville up next. after a 4 game losing streak usc-east has won 2 straight, plus they're 7-2 ats off back/back su/ats wins as a favorite. gamecocks need 2 wins to make the post season. south carolina
8:00P17. #7 TEXAS (9-1) AT
IOWA STATE (6-4) +7.5
(O/U=47.5
longhorns control their path to the big 12 title game, but they face a tough task in ames vs iowa st, who's 3-1 su/ats in their last 4 vs texas, as well as 24-10 ats since '16 as big 12 dogs. w/texas star rb jonathon brooks out for the season w/a torn acl, and the cyclones already stingy vs the run, I think this is a low scoring game decided in the last possession. iowa st stays close.
