WEEK 13“You play with your balls a lot.”
“I do NOT play with my balls.”
“Larry Bird doesn't do as much ball-handling in one night as you do in an hour!”
“Are you trying to start a fight?”
“No. I'm simply stating a fact. That's all. You fidget with your nuts a lot.”
“You know what'd make me happy?”
“Another couple of balls, and an extra set of fingers?”that larry bird line was a good one. extra set of fingers even better. j-c left us way too soon.
THURSDAY7:30P1.
OLE MISS (9-2) AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-6) +10
push(O/U)=54.5
bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 in the egg bowl, but is just 1-3 ats the last 4 in stark-vegas. rebels have revenge from a 24-22 loss a year ago, plus msu is 0-6 ats as home dogs of 7+ lately as well as 4-10 ats vs sec opponents. ol' miss is 4-0 ats as road chalk of 7+. mississippi.
FRIDAY12:00A2. TCU(5-6) AT
OKLAHOMA (9-2) -10
win(O/U)=63.5
horned frogs look for bowl eligibility, ou looking for revenge from a 55-24 shellacking in '22. teams off a cfp title game loss are still 9-2 ats (tho both losses were by tcu this season). and w/sooner qb dillon garbriel still questionable after getting injured at byu last week,
I'll take a chance on a back door cover. texas christian. (edit. 11/24/23 9:25 am EST) tcu is still just 2-7 the last 3 years as road dogs. gotta go w/oklahoma.
3.
IOWA (9-2) AT NEBRASKA (5-6) -2.5
win(O/U)=26.5
ucla is averaging 27.5 points/game so far this year, that's 69th in fbs. the vegas total for this game-26.5 for both teams combined-would be 70th if it was for a single team, just ahead of bowling green at 26.3. lol. iowa is 121st in scoring offense (18.5/game, just slightly behind the huskers who are 117th at 18.7), and 130th in total offense (245/game). and yet the hawkeyes are 9-2 and big 10 west champs. in 5 games vs division foes, they've scored just 70 points (14 pts/game) and yet they're 4-1 su//ats (and should be unbeaten if not for a silly called fair catch penalty on a game-winning punt return td vs minnesota). that defense is nails, which is why I question the huskers, who've been 1 game away from bowl eligible for a month now, and is 1-7 su the last 8 in this series, being favored. unl is 5-10 ats as home chalk, while the hawks are 8-5-1 ats as road dogs. iowa.
12:00P4.
UTSA (8-3) AT TULANE (10-1) -3.5
loss(O/U)=51.5
winner here goes to the aac title game. after starting the season 1-3, utsa has been on fire, winning 7 straight league (all but 1 by 14+ pts). 4 of the green wave's 7 aac wins have been by 7/less, w/only last week's 24-8 win over fau being more than 12. tulane has the stronger defense, the roadrunners speedier on offense. utsa is 11-1 ats as a dog of 7/less, tulane is 10-1 su/ats as league chalk of 7/less. when in doubt, defer to the dog. texas-san antonio
5:30P5.
OREGON STATE (8-3) AT OREGON (10-1) -14
loss(O/U)=62.5
ducks have been getting a lot of love this season as not only the best 1 loss team in the country, but maybe the best team to challenge uga for a national title. no doubt they've been dominant, w/only 2 of their wins by less than 8 points (7 wins by 29+). but I think this line is dissing the beavers a little too much, w/their 3 losses by a total of just 8 pts. osu has taken 2 of the last 3 su in this series, 11-2 ats off a su home favorite loss and 8-2 ats as a pac 12 road dog of 14/less. uo is just 1-6 ats off a su/ats win when going up vs a foe off a su/ats loss. I'm also wondering if oregon is, even w/revenge in this civil war matchup, still looking ahead to a potential revenge game vs washington. plus, w/this being the last scheduled game in the series (oregon st not being very happy about being left behind while uo heads off to the big 10) could that give the visitors some extra juice? oregon state stays close.
SATURDAY12:00A6.
OHIO STATE (11-0) AT MICHIGAN (11-0) -3
loss. -2 in turnovers, um was averaging 228/game rushing, and even though bucks held them to 156, the key runs in that last 4th qtr drive were a killer(O/U)=46.5
not sure if there's ever been an instance in the long legacy of 'the game' where there's been more juice than this one. after losing 15 of the previous 16 in the series, um is off back/back wins for the 1st time since '99-'00. fwiw, the ugly hats haven't won & covered as chalk vs tosu since 2003 (35-21 as -7), and since '99 michigan is just 1-5 ats at home vs the bucks when favored. although the wolverines have been slightly less dominant on offense in '23, their defense has picked up the slack, no just #1 in pts allowed at 9+/game but they are +12 in turnovers which imho is a key stat to watch for saturday. that said, it's just a coincidence that they've given up the most points in their last 3 games (13 vs purdue, 15 at psu, then 24 at maryland) since connor stalions resigned, right?
. on the other side, this is the 1st time the buckeyes have been away underdogs vs a big 10 opponent since 2014 (+4 at mich st, a 49-37 tosu win). the bucks are also a $$-making 9-0 ats as dog of 3+ of late. and here's a cfb nerd stat alert; since 1987, there's been 7 games matching teams who were 10-0 or better, w/last year's um-tosu game being the 7th. the dog has won 6 of those 7 games, and covered all 7.
if the bucks win the turnover battle, and their improved defense can slow down um's run game and keep j.j. mccarthy in the pocket, I think this one is #8. the ohio state university.
7. KENTUCKY (6-5) AT
LOUISVILLE (10-1) -7.
loss(O/U)=50.5
the cardinals still have an outside shot at the cfb playoffs but they've lost 4 straight to uk (0-4 ats too). the wildcats are 5-1 ats as dogs of 10/less of late, but they haven't beaten, nor covered a game vs a winning team this season. even w/the possible look ahead to florida st in the acc title game next week, kentucky just has not had the running game going well enough to keep l'villa's offense off the field. louisville.
8. TEXAS A&M (7-4) AT
LSU (8-3) -11.5
win(O/U)=66.5
we may not know where the aggies are emotionally after jimbo fisher's firing, but it's pretty clear where brian kelly's head is at; get qb jayden daniels a heisman. he's done plenty to earn it already, but mix in revenge (a&m won 38-23 last year as +10 dogs; lsu is 9-2 ats w/sec revenge) in a series the tigers have owned (11-1 ats). lsu does all it can to run it up.
9.
INDIANA (3-8) AT PURDUE (3-8) -3.5
loss(O/U)=51.5
last week indiana lost 24-21 to sparty in the battle for the old brass spittoon. this week the hoosiers try to win the old oaken bucket for the first time since 2019. boilers have covered 6 straight in the series and have rushed for 300+ the last 2 weeks in a win over minnesota and a loss to n'western. but iu has been the team who's been the more competitive over the last month... indiana.
3:00P10.
SAN JOSE STATE (6-5) AT UNLV (9-2) -2.5
win(O/U)=59.5
san jose st began the season losing 5 of 6, but has now won 5 straight and can make the mwc title game w/a win and some help. unlv is in the ccg w/a win. the rebels have covered all but 1 of their lined games in '23. the spartans are slightly better on defense, and I'll lean that way. san jose st.
3:30P11. ALABAMA (10-1) AT
AUBURN (6-5) +14.5
win.(O/U)=48.5
until last week's shocking loss to new mexico st (I had the aggies covering... unreal that they won by 3 td's), war eagle had won 3 straight, albeit vs the 3 worst teams in the sec (msu, vandy and ark, w/a combined league record of 2-20). but they have covered 3 straight at home vs the tide, who since escaping a&m and arkansas mid-season has found its stride on offense. biggest question is the look ahead factor to uga next week. hugh freeze is the only active sec coach who has multiple wins over nick saban, and the tigers are 9-5-1 ats in this series when off a loss. they also had georgia on the ropes on the plains earlier this year. I'll roll the dice on the hook. auburn.
12. ARIZONA (8-3) AT
ARIZONA STATE (3-8) +10.5
loss(O/I)=50.5
what a year for u of a, the best since rich rodriguez went 10-4 in '14. but they're 0-3 ats the last 3 in the series vs asu, and 1-4 ats the last 5 in tempe. plus, the wildcats have not been a double digit pac 12 road favorite since 2013 (33-26 su w/ats l at cal). w/arizona off a blowout home win over utah, and the sun devils getting their ass kicked by oregon last week, I think I have some arch rival spread value here. asu is 11-3 ats in the series as a dog off a loss. mix in revenge... arizona state hangs around.
13. VANDERBILT (2-9) AT
TENNESSEE (7-4) -27
loss(O/U)=56.5
the vols lost by double digits to uf and alabama. they got destroyed by mizzou and uga. yet they are ranked due to... uh... eh... getting by a&m I guess? ok. the commodores are actually 8-3 ats in the last 11 games vs tennessee, but they're 1-7 ats off a bye week, bowo is 5-1 ats as big (-20+) sec chalk, and take out frustrations on the smart guys. tennessee.
14. JAMES MADISON (10-1) AT
COASTAL CAROLINA (7-4) +9
loss(O/U)=50.5
really like ccu in this one, despite the magical season jmu has had that got burst in ot last week by appy st. 1. the chanticleers are off the 28-21 upset loss to army. 2. james madison embarrassed them 47-7 a year ago. 3. ccu is 7-0 ats as an underdog of 10/less w/revenge. 4. ccu is 22-3 su at home since the beginning of the '20 season. 5. it's tough for unbeaten teams whose bubble gets burst this late in the season to bounce back. coastal carolina covers
4:00P15.
WASHINGTON STATE (5-6) AT WASHINGTON (11-0) -16.5
win(O/U)=68.5
like the civil war uo-ore st game, this battle for the apple cup has 1 team possibly looking ahead to a pac 12 title game/cfb playoff berth who's abandoning the pac 12 for the big 10, going up against the little sister aggie school they left behind league-wise. uw hasn't covered as home chalk since september, but they're 7-1 ats the last 8 in this series. here's a cfb nerd stat for you; the cougars are 15-0 ats as dogs of 14+ vs opponents off a su win. washington state.
7:00P16. FLORIDA STATE (11-0) AT
FLORIDA (5-6) +6.5
loss(O/U)=50.5
still sick over that ugly injury that ended fsu qb jordan travis' season. uf lost qb graham mertz last week as well to a busted collarbone. gators need a win for bowl eligibility, and they're 3-1 ats the last 4 in this series, but over the last quarter century or so the favorite here has dominated (18-5 ats). but circumstances w/the qb alters that. for the noles, backup tate rodemaker came in a year ago and played well in a win over louisville, but this will be his first road start. for uf, I thought max brown looked pretty good in relief at missouri in a close loss. florida makes the seminoles sweat some.
17. GEORGIA (11-0) AT
GEORGIA TECH (6-5) +24
win(O/U)=59.5
yet another rivalry game which is sandwiching one team between a big game and a league title game. uga has dominated tech (18-3 su, 14-6-1 ats) and the series visitor has dominated it as well (19-3-1 ats). that said, this is a really flat spot for the dawgs, who are 0-7 ats as chalk of 20+. the yellow jackets are 4-1 ats getting 20+, and 11-3 ats as dogs the past couple seasons. I think kirby spends the 2nd half throttling back some. georgia tech.
18.
CLEMSON (7-4) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (5-6) +7
win(O/U)=51.5
as beuycek learned on x recently, the palmetto bowl is MUCH more heated than 'the game' (amazing what you learn on the world wide web, isn't it mike? lol). clemson has turned around their season w/3 solid home wins (nd, ga tech, unc) and now head to columbia where the gamecocks need a win for a bowl game. the tigers also have revenger here, after usc-east broke a 7 game series losing streak w/an emotional 31-30 win. unfortunately, the 'cocks have been pretty limp at home vs cu (0-5 ats the last 5 games). clemson
19.
NORTH CAROLINA (8-3) AT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (8-3) +2.5
loss(O/U)=55.5
I'm surprised both these teams are 8-3, but for different reasons. I thought unc could challenge for the acc crown, and thought the wolfpack would struggle w/o qb devin leary. after starting w/6 wins the tar heels are 2-3 su and haven't covered a game in 6 weeks, while nc state has been competitive every week except when turnovers turned around losses to nd and duke. the dog in this series is 18-6 ats w/14 outright upsets. carolina's d has allowed 184 pts in its last 5 acc games, that's almost 37 per game. nc state's defense has given up just 81 in its last 5 league games. so why do I think the tide reverses for both teams? the heels are 5-1 ats of late in the series, and they're 7-2 ats in games w/double revenge while their relatives from raleigh are 1-5 ats vs double revenge and just 3-10 ats as dogs of 5/less. should be an entertaining high scoring affair though w/unc's potent offense and porous defense. north carolina.
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
. on the other side, this is the 1st time the buckeyes have been away underdogs vs a big 10 opponent since 2014 (+4 at mich st, a 49-37 tosu win). the bucks are also a $$-making 9-0 ats as dog of 3+ of late. and here's a cfb nerd stat alert; since 1987, there's been 7 games matching teams who were 10-0 or better, w/last year's um-tosu game being the 7th. the dog has won 6 of those 7 games, and covered all 7. if the bucks win the turnover battle, and their improved defense can slow down um's run game and keep j.j. mccarthy in the pocket, I think this one is #8. the ohio state university.
