"Excuse me, is that your nose, or did a bus park on your face?"uh, no clue. guess I need to start going to movies again. lol
8/29 North Dakota State at Colorado +9.5.
push/win. I did pick nd state. 
fyi this actual vegas line is cu -9.5, not +9.5. the buffs have covered just 2 games in the last 3 seasons as chalk. last yr they were also incredibly undisciplined (more penalties than all but 2 fbs teams) and the '24 roster has 35 new faces to replace the 40 players who left the program. ndsu's bread and butter is controlling the los, where neon's team has been the weakest. qb cam miller is a solid passer/runner, and the bison has also beaten 6 of its last 7 fbs foes straight up. if we're going w/the true vegas line, I'll take the dakotas. this line as posted? I'll do colorado as the dog.
8/29
North Carolina at Minnesota +2.
pushlast yr unc piled up 508 yds in a 31-13 domination over the gophers. but that was w/drake maye at qb. now they have ex-aggie/lsu starter max johnson. the tar heels are also just 3-10-1 ats as road faves the last 4 yrs. minnesota has a new qb starter too; max johnson, who was #1 in fcs in yds passing at new hampshire. but the gophers will have their hands full trying to stop carolina rb omarion hampton, who I think will be the tipping point. north carolina
8/30
Texas Christian at Stanford +9.
loss. stanford kicks a fg w/0:36 left in the game.both teams return 16+ starters, which will be rarer and rarer in the transfer portal age imho. but the trees are just 4-11 ats the last 3 yrs as home dogs, and figure to have little stadium juice w/the students not yet on campus there. the frogs are better on both sides of the ball, all 5 of their wins in '23 were by 17+ pts, and (cfb nerd stat #1 of the season) stanford is 4-28-1 ats since '21 when they allow 30+ pts. ugh. tcu.
8/30
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State -11.5.
win. think it's going to be a long season for msui2 teams w/new coaches (tom herman at fau, jonathon smith for sparty) and very little returning talent on offense. both have decent defenses. in '23 the owls gave a better illinois squad all they could handle in a 23-16 loss (covered as +16). I think double digits is too much to give. fau
8/31
Clemson v Georgia -13.5 at Atlanta.
loss. tigers' d was game, but eventually folded under their inept offense and uga's immense talent3 yrs ago these two opened the season in a game that had 2 fg's and 1 pick-6 in a 10-3 uga win that kicked off the dawgs' 1st national title in 4 decades. no doubt that the '24 pre-season #1 has the talent edge, but imho it's not a 2 td edge. the tigers were better than their 9-4 record (outgaining 3 of the 4 opponents in those losses). it's been 10 years since clemson was a double digit dog, and dabo is 12-1 ats when getting 5+. the favorite is just 4-12 ats in this series too. clemson keeps it close.
8/31
Penn State at West Virginia +8.5.
win. if you want a dark horse pick to take the big 10, the nitts are it.for the 1st time in 32 yrs the nitts head to wild wonderful west virginia. in '23 when the series re-started, psu won 38-15, they're a better team in '24 and they're 8-1 su/ats as road chalk the last 3 seasons. the mountaineers are 5-3 ats as home dogs since '20, but 19-1 su in home openers of late. after 4 straight losing seasons, qb graham greene led wvu to a 9-4 finish last yr and most of the playmakers on offense return. but I question whether their d can stop penn state's talented rb's (nicholas singleton, kaytron allen). penn state
8/31 U Miami at
Florida +3
loss. man was uf badcanes haven't been to the swamp since '08. uf coach billy napier has some heat on him this season off 2 yrs under .500, and w/how their arguably toughest in the nation schedule ends up (georgia, at texas, lsu, ol' miss, at fsu), this game is even more vital. miami has 6 new starters via the transfer portal, including cam ward at qb (via wash. st) and damien martinez at rb (ore. st), who you'd think would cool mario cristobal's own hot seat (13-13 since '22). re trends, florida is 3-1 ats of late getting points at home, including 2 outright upsets (utah in '22, vols in '23) and they're 41-1-2 su in home openers since '80. chomp chomp
8/31 Notre Dame at
Texas A&M -3
loss. nice win for the irisha couple of teams looking to change their trend of habitual underachieving. the Irish are 54-1 su when they outgain a foe, but the aggies have outgained every opponent in 20 straight home games, and a&m was also very aggressive in the transfer portal to support new head coach mike elko. nd is 7-1 ats as a dog in road openers, but elko has 18 returning starters and more talent at hand than he had at duke a season ago, when the blue devils nearly upset notre dame. lean to texas a&m.
8/31 V
irginia Tech at Vanderbilt +13.
loss. dumb pick by me. lolafter 3 straight losing seasons, the hokies won 5 of their last 7 in '24 to finish above .500 and they look primed to build on that in '24. all 11 starters on offense return, including qb kyron drones who ended '23 very well. 2 td's is a lot to give on the road for a team not used to winning much lately, but tech's 7 wins last year had an average margin of nearly 24 pts. vandy is only 4-15 ats at home of late, and there could easily be more visiting fans in the stands saturday. this could be a blow out. va tech.
8/31
South Dakota St. at Oklahoma State -9.5
loss8/31
UNLV at Houston -2
winrebels have covered 12 straight vs ooc opponents.
9/1
USC v LSU -4.5 at Las Vegas.
winoops. must not have hit save last night. 1st mtg in 40 yrs for these 2 who split a national title 20 yrs back or so. lsu has lost 4 straight season openers, usc has won 7 straight 1st games, but the last one they lose was to sec power alabama 52-6. both are breaking in new qb's, both have defenses who gave up 38+/game in '23. trojan coach lincoln Riley is 6-1 ats as a dog of 3+. I think let wins a close game but usc covers.
9/2
Boston College at Florida State -21.5
winsince this line opened its move 4 pts to bc, so the betting public isn't so hot on the noles, who flew 8000 miles round trip to lose in ireland to ga tech. in '23 this game was the golden eagles' red bandana game, and as 25 pt dogs nearly pulled off the upset (31-29 loss). having already played a game is a plus for fsu, plus playing in hot, humid tallahassee. that said, the seminoles allowed 190 yds rushing last week, bc has 3 potential nfl draft picks on its o-line, and has 17 starters back, including a qb who passed for 2500 yds and rushed for 1100 a season ago. boston college.
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