Post by mscott59 on Sept 22, 2024 15:40:51 GMT -5
I see 8-7
WEEK 4
• Oh, man, I had a weekend.
• Yeah?
• We went to Tijuana, Mexico, you know? And we thought it would be fun, you know, to go to a show. Everybody says you gotta check out one of these shows. And... it's a woman f-in' a horse. We get there and we think it's gonna be awesome and... it is not as cool as it sounds like it's gonna be…”
wow.. and here I spent last weekend making an egg salad sandwich. and I don't even like egg salad. lol
FRIDAY
1. STANFORD AT SYRACUSE -8.5
could not be happier for tosu transfer qb kyle mccord, who's only thrown for 735 yds, 8 td's, 69% completion rate and just 1 pick in syracuse's 2-0 start. the orange is a not bad 8-4-1 ats as home favorites, is off a bye, only has holy cross next so there's no look ahead factor. the trees are also off a bye, but have struggled as road dogs since '17 (7-16 ats, including 3-8 ats in last 11 games getting points away from palo alto). it's also a 2500 mile trip one way to syracuse. roll on, big orange.
2. ILLINOIS AT NEBRASKA -7.5
I'm sure when fans thought about what would be the initial 'big game' of the '24 big 10 season, illini vs huskers was top of mind. but both are 3-0. unl has the edge at qb w/dylon raiola, but, despite winning/covering 3 openers at home allowing just 7 pts/game, they've struggled to stop the run, which illinois figures to try to exploit. the illini have also been a very strong road dog (11-3 ats the past 3 seasons) while nebraska is just 2-8 ats as home chalk. illinois also has a 9-1 edge in turnover ratio so far in '24, where the huskers have struggled in recent yrs. I like the home team to win, visitors to cover.
SATURDAY
3. FLORIDA AT MISS ST +6
man I thought uf would turn the corner last week, not get hammered by the aggies. you'd think the first game away from the swamp might help the gators circle the wagons, but they're just 3-16 su/6-13 ats on the road since '20. bulldogs have their own issues after getting dominated by toledo 41-17 saturday. florida has lost to better teams but under billy napier they are just 7-15 su vs power conference opponents. a quiet ring of the cowbells to cover.
4. KANSASAT WEST VIRGINIA -2.5
I'm guessing both these teams thought they'd be better than 1-2 heading into this matchup. still waiting for ku qb jalon daniels to return to his form from a couple years ago. the Jayhawks under lance leipold are 7-0 ats in league games off a su favorite loss, while wvu of late is just 2-5-1 ats as big 12 chalk vs a foe off a loss. the 'eers are 9-3 ats as home chalk the last 3 yrs, but I'm leaning toward kansas here, after they've outgained all 3 opponents in '24.
5. UCLA AT LSU -24
2 teams both located in la. hahahaha. the only thing keeping this from being a blowout would be if the tigers had someone important on deck next. south alabama doesn't qualify. lsu may have saved their season w/the comeback in at columbia, and they're 5-1 ats as ooc home favorites. t-i-g-e-r-s.
6. ARIZONA STATE AT TEXAS TECH -3
sun devils are 7-3 ats the last 2 yrs getting points on the road, while the red raiders are 12-3 su at home of late. w/asu's porous pass defense, have to lean toward tech, but I really like the over 58.5.
7. UTAH AT OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5
there's no better dog in cfb than kyle whittingham, who is 78-39-3 ats since he took over at utah in '90. w/the utes getting qb cam rising back, I like utah in this possible big 12 title game preview.
8. TCU AT SMU +3
battle for the iron skillet down in the metroplex. the horned frogs are on an 8-2 su/6-3-1 ats run in the series in the last decade. the mustangs have not played up to expectations so far in '24, and tcu has already topped 1000 yds passing. the home team in this match up is just 1-8 ats btw. and here's a cfb nerd stat; since '80, game 4 road dogs off a su favorite loss (tcu lost 35-34 to ucf last week) are 40-14-1 ats. texas christian.
9. IOWA AT MINNESOTA +2.5
there's no rivalry trophy I love more than floyd of rosedale, the pig who's at stake for the 118th time in the twin cities, where the hawkeyes have gone 6-1 ats since '10. but iowa is also 1-4 ats prior to play tosu, and the gophers are 5-0 ats when playing a team they beat the previous season. you might recall that 12-10 final, where Iowa ran a punt back for a td in the final minute but it was nullified due to a supposed fair catch motion (didn't look like it to me). iowa has won 11 straight road openers in non-covid seasons, and I think they cover here in a typical (6 of last 8 have gone under the total which is 35.5 tomorrow) low scoring game.
10. HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI -3.5
bearcats bounced back from a 2nd half collapse vs pitt to beat backyard rival miami u last wknd, rushing for 200+ yds. uc also has 8 qb sacks so far, while the cougars' o-line have given up 10 in 3 games. houston did play oklahoma tough 2 weeks ago, but their offense is still putting up only 319/game. uh has also lost 7 players to acl injuries already. cincy.
11. ARKANSAS AT AUBURN -3
the 4th of a season opening 5-game homestand for war eagle. I read a stat that teams in that scenario, when facing a foe off a 10+ win, are just 3-9-1 ats. the hogs are outgaining opponents by nearly 250 yds/game, and are a double ot loss vs oklahoma st from being undefeated. they also have revenge from a 52-3 pasting by auburn last yr, and they're 7-1 ats as road dog w/revenge of late. sooo---eeee.
12. USC AT MICHIGAN +5.5
it's 'are we really back?' vs 'really who are we'? in Ann Arbor. the other team playing game 4 of 5 straight at home are the wolverines. um has yet to cover a game this season, and has yet to look good on offense too. the switch to alex orji at qb will give them a strong extra run option, which is an absolute necessity to give their defense some rest and keep usc's offense on the sideline. the other question for the visitors, who come in off a bye, is how improved is the trojan d? my son-in-law, brother-in-law, and a golf buddy (all maize & blue) have given up on this team. I think they find a way to hang around in this 1st trojan trip to the big house since 1958.
13. CAL AT FLORIDA ST -2.5
so which is wackier... that these 2 schools 3000 (I'm guessing) miles apart are in the same league? or that the bears are getting less than a fg in tallahassee? the noles are averaging an amazingly bad 274 total yds/game to date, and cal's defense may be the best they've faced yet. the bears have picked off 9 passes in '24, they can run the ball, and they're a $$-making 15-6 ats as road dogs since '18. can fsu getting it's offensive coordinator, alex atkins, back after a 3 game suspension make a difference? maybe, but gotta go w/california.
14. TENNESSEE AT OKLAHOMA +7
I'm liking a lot of dogs down the stretch here. no doubt how good the vols have been behind new qb nico iamaleava (wow that's a lot of vowels) and a o-line powering a run attack gaining 330+/game, but bowo is 3-14 su/6-10-1 ats in road openers since '06, 1-4 ats prior to a bye week. the sooners are 10-4 ats as home dogs, 8-2 ats when getting 4+ in norman, and have a defense giving up just 265/game. ou also is set to see up to 7 key players return from injuries. quite the setting for a 1st ever sec league game at gaylord family/oklahoma memorial stadium. sooners.
15. KANSAS ST AT BYU +7.5
ksu is just 1-5 ats as road chalk since '22. byu is 18-5 ats when getting points, and have covered 11 of the last 12 games they've played since last season. wow. I also love an undefeated home dog who's outgained their 1st 3 opponents by 200+ yds/game. I'm booking the mormons.
• Oh, man, I had a weekend.
• Yeah?
• We went to Tijuana, Mexico, you know? And we thought it would be fun, you know, to go to a show. Everybody says you gotta check out one of these shows. And... it's a woman f-in' a horse. We get there and we think it's gonna be awesome and... it is not as cool as it sounds like it's gonna be…”
wow.. and here I spent last weekend making an egg salad sandwich. and I don't even like egg salad. lol
FRIDAY
1. STANFORD AT SYRACUSE -8.5
could not be happier for tosu transfer qb kyle mccord, who's only thrown for 735 yds, 8 td's, 69% completion rate and just 1 pick in syracuse's 2-0 start. the orange is a not bad 8-4-1 ats as home favorites, is off a bye, only has holy cross next so there's no look ahead factor. the trees are also off a bye, but have struggled as road dogs since '17 (7-16 ats, including 3-8 ats in last 11 games getting points away from palo alto). it's also a 2500 mile trip one way to syracuse. roll on, big orange.
2. ILLINOIS AT NEBRASKA -7.5
I'm sure when fans thought about what would be the initial 'big game' of the '24 big 10 season, illini vs huskers was top of mind. but both are 3-0. unl has the edge at qb w/dylon raiola, but, despite winning/covering 3 openers at home allowing just 7 pts/game, they've struggled to stop the run, which illinois figures to try to exploit. the illini have also been a very strong road dog (11-3 ats the past 3 seasons) while nebraska is just 2-8 ats as home chalk. illinois also has a 9-1 edge in turnover ratio so far in '24, where the huskers have struggled in recent yrs. I like the home team to win, visitors to cover.
SATURDAY
3. FLORIDA AT MISS ST +6
man I thought uf would turn the corner last week, not get hammered by the aggies. you'd think the first game away from the swamp might help the gators circle the wagons, but they're just 3-16 su/6-13 ats on the road since '20. bulldogs have their own issues after getting dominated by toledo 41-17 saturday. florida has lost to better teams but under billy napier they are just 7-15 su vs power conference opponents. a quiet ring of the cowbells to cover.
4. KANSASAT WEST VIRGINIA -2.5
I'm guessing both these teams thought they'd be better than 1-2 heading into this matchup. still waiting for ku qb jalon daniels to return to his form from a couple years ago. the Jayhawks under lance leipold are 7-0 ats in league games off a su favorite loss, while wvu of late is just 2-5-1 ats as big 12 chalk vs a foe off a loss. the 'eers are 9-3 ats as home chalk the last 3 yrs, but I'm leaning toward kansas here, after they've outgained all 3 opponents in '24.
5. UCLA AT LSU -24
2 teams both located in la. hahahaha. the only thing keeping this from being a blowout would be if the tigers had someone important on deck next. south alabama doesn't qualify. lsu may have saved their season w/the comeback in at columbia, and they're 5-1 ats as ooc home favorites. t-i-g-e-r-s.
6. ARIZONA STATE AT TEXAS TECH -3
sun devils are 7-3 ats the last 2 yrs getting points on the road, while the red raiders are 12-3 su at home of late. w/asu's porous pass defense, have to lean toward tech, but I really like the over 58.5.
7. UTAH AT OKLAHOMA STATE -2.5
there's no better dog in cfb than kyle whittingham, who is 78-39-3 ats since he took over at utah in '90. w/the utes getting qb cam rising back, I like utah in this possible big 12 title game preview.
8. TCU AT SMU +3
battle for the iron skillet down in the metroplex. the horned frogs are on an 8-2 su/6-3-1 ats run in the series in the last decade. the mustangs have not played up to expectations so far in '24, and tcu has already topped 1000 yds passing. the home team in this match up is just 1-8 ats btw. and here's a cfb nerd stat; since '80, game 4 road dogs off a su favorite loss (tcu lost 35-34 to ucf last week) are 40-14-1 ats. texas christian.
9. IOWA AT MINNESOTA +2.5
there's no rivalry trophy I love more than floyd of rosedale, the pig who's at stake for the 118th time in the twin cities, where the hawkeyes have gone 6-1 ats since '10. but iowa is also 1-4 ats prior to play tosu, and the gophers are 5-0 ats when playing a team they beat the previous season. you might recall that 12-10 final, where Iowa ran a punt back for a td in the final minute but it was nullified due to a supposed fair catch motion (didn't look like it to me). iowa has won 11 straight road openers in non-covid seasons, and I think they cover here in a typical (6 of last 8 have gone under the total which is 35.5 tomorrow) low scoring game.
10. HOUSTON AT CINCINNATI -3.5
bearcats bounced back from a 2nd half collapse vs pitt to beat backyard rival miami u last wknd, rushing for 200+ yds. uc also has 8 qb sacks so far, while the cougars' o-line have given up 10 in 3 games. houston did play oklahoma tough 2 weeks ago, but their offense is still putting up only 319/game. uh has also lost 7 players to acl injuries already. cincy.
11. ARKANSAS AT AUBURN -3
the 4th of a season opening 5-game homestand for war eagle. I read a stat that teams in that scenario, when facing a foe off a 10+ win, are just 3-9-1 ats. the hogs are outgaining opponents by nearly 250 yds/game, and are a double ot loss vs oklahoma st from being undefeated. they also have revenge from a 52-3 pasting by auburn last yr, and they're 7-1 ats as road dog w/revenge of late. sooo---eeee.
12. USC AT MICHIGAN +5.5
it's 'are we really back?' vs 'really who are we'? in Ann Arbor. the other team playing game 4 of 5 straight at home are the wolverines. um has yet to cover a game this season, and has yet to look good on offense too. the switch to alex orji at qb will give them a strong extra run option, which is an absolute necessity to give their defense some rest and keep usc's offense on the sideline. the other question for the visitors, who come in off a bye, is how improved is the trojan d? my son-in-law, brother-in-law, and a golf buddy (all maize & blue) have given up on this team. I think they find a way to hang around in this 1st trojan trip to the big house since 1958.
13. CAL AT FLORIDA ST -2.5
so which is wackier... that these 2 schools 3000 (I'm guessing) miles apart are in the same league? or that the bears are getting less than a fg in tallahassee? the noles are averaging an amazingly bad 274 total yds/game to date, and cal's defense may be the best they've faced yet. the bears have picked off 9 passes in '24, they can run the ball, and they're a $$-making 15-6 ats as road dogs since '18. can fsu getting it's offensive coordinator, alex atkins, back after a 3 game suspension make a difference? maybe, but gotta go w/california.
14. TENNESSEE AT OKLAHOMA +7
I'm liking a lot of dogs down the stretch here. no doubt how good the vols have been behind new qb nico iamaleava (wow that's a lot of vowels) and a o-line powering a run attack gaining 330+/game, but bowo is 3-14 su/6-10-1 ats in road openers since '06, 1-4 ats prior to a bye week. the sooners are 10-4 ats as home dogs, 8-2 ats when getting 4+ in norman, and have a defense giving up just 265/game. ou also is set to see up to 7 key players return from injuries. quite the setting for a 1st ever sec league game at gaylord family/oklahoma memorial stadium. sooners.
15. KANSAS ST AT BYU +7.5
ksu is just 1-5 ats as road chalk since '22. byu is 18-5 ats when getting points, and have covered 11 of the last 12 games they've played since last season. wow. I also love an undefeated home dog who's outgained their 1st 3 opponents by 200+ yds/game. I'm booking the mormons.
