Post by mscott59 on Nov 2, 2024 23:18:51 GMT -5
12-4. al-right!! ha
“May I speak with William, please?”
“He's not here. He's down in the bar with the band. They just got back from the radio station. Is this Maryann with the pot?... Hello?”
“No, this is not Maryann with the pot. This is Elaine. His mother. Could you please give him a message for me?”
cool flick. always thought billy crudup would become tom cruise or tom hanks-like.
WEEK 10[/b][/font]
1. #19 MISSISSIPPI (6-2) AT ARKANSAS (5-3) +7. loss. not a surprise they lost, but the blowout was unexpected
home team in this series has won the last 5, but the razorbacks have covered 10 of the last 11 vs the rebels w/6 outright upset wins. ol'miss also has georgia next week, and they're 1-4 su/0-4-1 ats prior to playing the dawgs. hogs cover.
2. MINNESOTA (5-3) AT #24 ILLINOIS (6-2) +3. loss. apparently someone else figured better than me
I'm still trying to figure out how illinois is getting points. since '21 these two have played 3 times, the gophers have been favored in all 3, and the illini have not just covered but won all 3. illinois is 15-6 ats as a big 10 dog since '21, 3-1 ats this year, and have the better defense. chief illiniwek.
3. #4 OHIO STATE (6-1) AT #3 PENN STATE(7-0) +3.5. win.
I have a hard time going against an undefeated home dog who's won the stats in every game for the last 2 months. 'tho the nitts have won just once over tosu since 2012, they are 7-3 ats the last 10 games of this typically down to the wire series that's been easily the most competitive high profile matchup in the big 10 of late. psu is solid vs the pass and the run, holding foes to 106 yds below their season average. my bucks are 0-3-1 ats since '21 as road chalk vs top 10 opponents, but they're also 13-4-1 ats as big 10 away faves of 7/less, as well as 9-1 ats in road games after scoring 21/less. both teams are dealing w/a couple key injuries. and here's a cfb nerd stat for you; since 1990, 7-0 teams who are home dogs in conference games in week 8, are 15-36 ats. leaving tomorrow for happy valley, and I think it will be a happy trip home. I hope. lol. bucks
4. DUKE (6-2) AT #5 MIAMI (8-0) -20. loss. by a point. again.
homecoming for blue devil coach manny diaz, who led the canes '19-'21. last week duke missed an xp, a makable 4th qtr fg, then a blocked kick that could've won the game in regulation, losing to smu 28-27 in ot, while miami systematically buried florida st. 36-14. the canes are just 4-21 ats off a win vs opponents off a loss, and 3-9 ats as acc chalk of 13+. backdoor cover for dukies.
5. VIRGINIA TECH (5-3) AT SYRACUSE (5-2) +4. win
how do you lose 41-13 when you hold that opponent to 213 total yds? when you throw 5 picks, 3 of which get run back for 6, like 'cuse qb kyle mccord did to pitt last week. I think that misleading result is giving the orange some value here. va tech is 1-6 ats off back/back favorite wins. plus syracuse is another team (there are 10 of them in fbs as of today) who've outgained every opponent so far. hokies are hot off 3 straight wins, and have returned to their ball hawking heritage on defense. but last week they put up just 233 yds of offense on ga tech. syracuse.
6. VANDERBILT (5-3) AT AUBURN (3-5) -6.5. win
so last yr vandy qb diego pavia led new mexico st onto the plains to pull off one of the more shocking recents cfb upsets, 31-10 as 25 pt dogs. so he won't be intimidated at jordan-hare vs an auburn team whose record doesn't reflect its talent (they're outgaining opponents by 106 yds/game) but does reflect their mistake-prone ways (-9 in turnover margin, while the commodores are +6). war eagle rb jarquez hunter put up 278 rushing vs kentucky last week, but au is 2-5 ats as sec favorites of 8/less and haven't won back/back games in over a year, while vandy is 5-0 ats as dogs in '24 and 4-1 ats on the sec road vs .400/less foes. vanderbilt.
7. FLORIDA (4-3) VS #2 GEORGIA (6-1) -17. win
the dawgs awoke and made me some $$ 2 weeks ago, putting texas in its proper place 30-15, and now head to the cocktail party vs umm who's shown signs of a turnaround winning 3 of its last 4, and the loss being a winnable game at tennessee that they lost in ot. uga has won 6 of the last 7 in the rivalry, but they're only 6-12 ats lately as favorites, 4-12 ats as chalk of 7+ off 3 straight wins. the gators are 6-3 ats as sec underdogs of 8+, 6-1-1 ats w/triple revenge. florida
8. #1 OREGON (8-0) AT MICHIGAN (5-3) +14.5. win. ducks run into the end zone instead of taking a knee in the final seconds inside the 5. lol
there are trends that favor um here; defending nat'l champs are 11-6-1 ats vs unbeaten league foes, and the ugly hats are 4-0-1 ats of late in that scenario. but I keep harkening back to what texas did a month ago in ann arbor, and the ducks are better on both sides of the ball imho than the 'horns. michigan's best db, will johnson, is banged up; not good when prepping for uo's potent air attack. oregon is also 7-3 ats as league road favorites of late. oregon by 17.
9. UCLA (2-5) AT NEBRASKA (5-3) -6.5. loss. what a stupid choice.
so is last week's version of the huskers, who pushed tosu to the limit, the real deal? or just a mirage after getting embarrassed by indiana the previous week? I'm guessing option a. the bruins took some of my $$ last week by finding an offense at rutgers, winning 52-35. but despite covering 5 straight, ucla is just 1-8 ats after a win of late, 1-5 ats off a su win as an underdog. unl is 7-3-1 ats off a loss the last 2+ yrs. nebraska.
10. TEXAS TECH (5-3) AT #11 IOWA STATE (7-0) -14. win
iowa st is off to their best start since 1938, but 2 td's seems like a lot to give here for the cyclones, especially since tech has beaten them 2 straight. isu is just 2-5 ats w/double revenge, while texas tech is 9-2 ats vs double revenge, 11-1 ats off a road loss and 5-3 ats as away dogs. despite an awful defense and a banged up qb, I'm riding w/the red raiders.
11. #10 TEXAS A&M (7-1) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3) +2.5. big win. won some $$ on this one
the aggies enter november in a place I don't think they've ever been before at this point in the season, alone atop the sec. down 17-7 last week to lsu, a&m went to backup qb marcel reed, who (along w/their defense causing 2 SHORT fields via turnovers that turned into td's) sparked a 31 pt outburst and a 38-23 win while throwing just 2 passes in the 2nd half. lsu wasn't prepared for a running qb, but usc-e's defense (who 2 weeks ago scored 2 early td's to incite a 35-9 rout of oklahoma) will be. the gamecocks' front 4, one of the best in cfb, already has 28 sacks, and has held 4 of its last 6 opponents to season lows in total yards. combine that w/the aggies 2-10 su/2-9-1 ats record in its last 12 road games? south carolina
12. LOUISVILLE (5-3) AT #11 CLEMSON (6-1) -10.5. win
the tigers have won 6 straight after a season opening drubbing from georgia, and have won/covered 6 straight vs l'ville. but the cards, who rallied for a 31-27 win at boston college last week, are 10-0-1 ats as 10+ dogs off a su win. plus clemson has already allowed 30+ pts 3 times this yr; louisville averages nearly 37/game. da ville hangs around.
13. KENTUCKY (3-5) AT #7 TENNESSEE (6-1) -16.5. win
2 good defenses here. I'm already on the under at 45.5. vols have owned the series of late, winning 10 of the last 12. and uk is averaging just 13/game vs sec opponents in '24. but the cats are 8-2 ats as sec dogs of 11+ (2-0 ats this yr in that scenario) and 15-6 ats vs opponents off back/back wins, while tennessee is just 3-10 ats as home chalk of 14+. big blue.
14. #18 PITTSBURGH (7-0) AT #20 SMU (7-1) -7.5. win
normally I love unbeatens this time of the year getting pts, but similar to tosu-psu, I'm bucking the trend again here. as I mentioned above, the panthers are getting some false vegas love here imho after a 41-13 'whipping' of syracuse that included 5 picks, 3 of them pick 6's, and gaining just 213 yds of offense. on the other side, smu was a 10 point favorite last week at duke, and won 28-27 in ot despite being -6 in turnover ratio, which is just about damn impossible. both those results cost me last week, and yes, I am bitter. the mustangs are averaging 45/game in dallas, they're 9-2 ats of late off a road win, and pitt is 0-6 ats of late as acc road dogs. amen to the methodists!
15. USC (4-4) AT WASHINGTON (4-4) +2.5. win
been rough sledding in their new conference homes for the trojans and huskies. understandable for uw, after losing their head coach, most of his staff and all but 5 starters off last yr's cfb semifinal team. usc has had the luck of eeyore, w/4 losses coming by a total of 14 pts, 3 of the l's coming as big 10 road chalk. I think the wrong team is favored here. southern cal's defense has suffered some serious slippage in the last month, while washington held indiana to just 312 yards last week, is holding opponents 116 yds under their season average, and has outgained all 8 foes in '24. and get a load of this road history for lincoln riley; 8-20 ats as away chalk, 1-10 ats as road faves vs teams off back/back losses, 0-7 ats giving pts away from home when the opponent won 7+ the previous year. washington.
BONUS GAME
16. WISCONSIN (5-3) AT IOWA (5-3) -3. win
the last 18 times the hawkeyes have played at kinnick stadium in november, they are 17-1 su. Iowa's kaleb johnson has 1100+ rushing this yr w/16 td's/7.8 per carry. the badgers gave up 1778 rushing to penn st last week, and nearly that much to rutgers 3 weeks ago. the hawks also switched to a running qb last week. my word is fight-fight-fight for iowa until the walls and rafters ring.
. I love college fight songs.
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“He's not here. He's down in the bar with the band. They just got back from the radio station. Is this Maryann with the pot?... Hello?”
“No, this is not Maryann with the pot. This is Elaine. His mother. Could you please give him a message for me?”
cool flick. always thought billy crudup would become tom cruise or tom hanks-like.
WEEK 10
1. #19 MISSISSIPPI (6-2) AT ARKANSAS (5-3) +7. loss. not a surprise they lost, but the blowout was unexpected
home team in this series has won the last 5, but the razorbacks have covered 10 of the last 11 vs the rebels w/6 outright upset wins. ol'miss also has georgia next week, and they're 1-4 su/0-4-1 ats prior to playing the dawgs. hogs cover.
2. MINNESOTA (5-3) AT #24 ILLINOIS (6-2) +3. loss. apparently someone else figured better than me
I'm still trying to figure out how illinois is getting points. since '21 these two have played 3 times, the gophers have been favored in all 3, and the illini have not just covered but won all 3. illinois is 15-6 ats as a big 10 dog since '21, 3-1 ats this year, and have the better defense. chief illiniwek.
3. #4 OHIO STATE (6-1) AT #3 PENN STATE(7-0) +3.5. win.
I have a hard time going against an undefeated home dog who's won the stats in every game for the last 2 months. 'tho the nitts have won just once over tosu since 2012, they are 7-3 ats the last 10 games of this typically down to the wire series that's been easily the most competitive high profile matchup in the big 10 of late. psu is solid vs the pass and the run, holding foes to 106 yds below their season average. my bucks are 0-3-1 ats since '21 as road chalk vs top 10 opponents, but they're also 13-4-1 ats as big 10 away faves of 7/less, as well as 9-1 ats in road games after scoring 21/less. both teams are dealing w/a couple key injuries. and here's a cfb nerd stat for you; since 1990, 7-0 teams who are home dogs in conference games in week 8, are 15-36 ats. leaving tomorrow for happy valley, and I think it will be a happy trip home. I hope. lol. bucks
4. DUKE (6-2) AT #5 MIAMI (8-0) -20. loss. by a point. again.
homecoming for blue devil coach manny diaz, who led the canes '19-'21. last week duke missed an xp, a makable 4th qtr fg, then a blocked kick that could've won the game in regulation, losing to smu 28-27 in ot, while miami systematically buried florida st. 36-14. the canes are just 4-21 ats off a win vs opponents off a loss, and 3-9 ats as acc chalk of 13+. backdoor cover for dukies.
5. VIRGINIA TECH (5-3) AT SYRACUSE (5-2) +4. win
how do you lose 41-13 when you hold that opponent to 213 total yds? when you throw 5 picks, 3 of which get run back for 6, like 'cuse qb kyle mccord did to pitt last week. I think that misleading result is giving the orange some value here. va tech is 1-6 ats off back/back favorite wins. plus syracuse is another team (there are 10 of them in fbs as of today) who've outgained every opponent so far. hokies are hot off 3 straight wins, and have returned to their ball hawking heritage on defense. but last week they put up just 233 yds of offense on ga tech. syracuse.
6. VANDERBILT (5-3) AT AUBURN (3-5) -6.5. win
so last yr vandy qb diego pavia led new mexico st onto the plains to pull off one of the more shocking recents cfb upsets, 31-10 as 25 pt dogs. so he won't be intimidated at jordan-hare vs an auburn team whose record doesn't reflect its talent (they're outgaining opponents by 106 yds/game) but does reflect their mistake-prone ways (-9 in turnover margin, while the commodores are +6). war eagle rb jarquez hunter put up 278 rushing vs kentucky last week, but au is 2-5 ats as sec favorites of 8/less and haven't won back/back games in over a year, while vandy is 5-0 ats as dogs in '24 and 4-1 ats on the sec road vs .400/less foes. vanderbilt.
7. FLORIDA (4-3) VS #2 GEORGIA (6-1) -17. win
the dawgs awoke and made me some $$ 2 weeks ago, putting texas in its proper place 30-15, and now head to the cocktail party vs umm who's shown signs of a turnaround winning 3 of its last 4, and the loss being a winnable game at tennessee that they lost in ot. uga has won 6 of the last 7 in the rivalry, but they're only 6-12 ats lately as favorites, 4-12 ats as chalk of 7+ off 3 straight wins. the gators are 6-3 ats as sec underdogs of 8+, 6-1-1 ats w/triple revenge. florida
8. #1 OREGON (8-0) AT MICHIGAN (5-3) +14.5. win. ducks run into the end zone instead of taking a knee in the final seconds inside the 5. lol
there are trends that favor um here; defending nat'l champs are 11-6-1 ats vs unbeaten league foes, and the ugly hats are 4-0-1 ats of late in that scenario. but I keep harkening back to what texas did a month ago in ann arbor, and the ducks are better on both sides of the ball imho than the 'horns. michigan's best db, will johnson, is banged up; not good when prepping for uo's potent air attack. oregon is also 7-3 ats as league road favorites of late. oregon by 17.
9. UCLA (2-5) AT NEBRASKA (5-3) -6.5. loss. what a stupid choice.
so is last week's version of the huskers, who pushed tosu to the limit, the real deal? or just a mirage after getting embarrassed by indiana the previous week? I'm guessing option a. the bruins took some of my $$ last week by finding an offense at rutgers, winning 52-35. but despite covering 5 straight, ucla is just 1-8 ats after a win of late, 1-5 ats off a su win as an underdog. unl is 7-3-1 ats off a loss the last 2+ yrs. nebraska.
10. TEXAS TECH (5-3) AT #11 IOWA STATE (7-0) -14. win
iowa st is off to their best start since 1938, but 2 td's seems like a lot to give here for the cyclones, especially since tech has beaten them 2 straight. isu is just 2-5 ats w/double revenge, while texas tech is 9-2 ats vs double revenge, 11-1 ats off a road loss and 5-3 ats as away dogs. despite an awful defense and a banged up qb, I'm riding w/the red raiders.
11. #10 TEXAS A&M (7-1) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3) +2.5. big win. won some $$ on this one
the aggies enter november in a place I don't think they've ever been before at this point in the season, alone atop the sec. down 17-7 last week to lsu, a&m went to backup qb marcel reed, who (along w/their defense causing 2 SHORT fields via turnovers that turned into td's) sparked a 31 pt outburst and a 38-23 win while throwing just 2 passes in the 2nd half. lsu wasn't prepared for a running qb, but usc-e's defense (who 2 weeks ago scored 2 early td's to incite a 35-9 rout of oklahoma) will be. the gamecocks' front 4, one of the best in cfb, already has 28 sacks, and has held 4 of its last 6 opponents to season lows in total yards. combine that w/the aggies 2-10 su/2-9-1 ats record in its last 12 road games? south carolina
12. LOUISVILLE (5-3) AT #11 CLEMSON (6-1) -10.5. win
the tigers have won 6 straight after a season opening drubbing from georgia, and have won/covered 6 straight vs l'ville. but the cards, who rallied for a 31-27 win at boston college last week, are 10-0-1 ats as 10+ dogs off a su win. plus clemson has already allowed 30+ pts 3 times this yr; louisville averages nearly 37/game. da ville hangs around.
13. KENTUCKY (3-5) AT #7 TENNESSEE (6-1) -16.5. win
2 good defenses here. I'm already on the under at 45.5. vols have owned the series of late, winning 10 of the last 12. and uk is averaging just 13/game vs sec opponents in '24. but the cats are 8-2 ats as sec dogs of 11+ (2-0 ats this yr in that scenario) and 15-6 ats vs opponents off back/back wins, while tennessee is just 3-10 ats as home chalk of 14+. big blue.
14. #18 PITTSBURGH (7-0) AT #20 SMU (7-1) -7.5. win
normally I love unbeatens this time of the year getting pts, but similar to tosu-psu, I'm bucking the trend again here. as I mentioned above, the panthers are getting some false vegas love here imho after a 41-13 'whipping' of syracuse that included 5 picks, 3 of them pick 6's, and gaining just 213 yds of offense. on the other side, smu was a 10 point favorite last week at duke, and won 28-27 in ot despite being -6 in turnover ratio, which is just about damn impossible. both those results cost me last week, and yes, I am bitter. the mustangs are averaging 45/game in dallas, they're 9-2 ats of late off a road win, and pitt is 0-6 ats of late as acc road dogs. amen to the methodists!
15. USC (4-4) AT WASHINGTON (4-4) +2.5. win
been rough sledding in their new conference homes for the trojans and huskies. understandable for uw, after losing their head coach, most of his staff and all but 5 starters off last yr's cfb semifinal team. usc has had the luck of eeyore, w/4 losses coming by a total of 14 pts, 3 of the l's coming as big 10 road chalk. I think the wrong team is favored here. southern cal's defense has suffered some serious slippage in the last month, while washington held indiana to just 312 yards last week, is holding opponents 116 yds under their season average, and has outgained all 8 foes in '24. and get a load of this road history for lincoln riley; 8-20 ats as away chalk, 1-10 ats as road faves vs teams off back/back losses, 0-7 ats giving pts away from home when the opponent won 7+ the previous year. washington.
BONUS GAME
16. WISCONSIN (5-3) AT IOWA (5-3) -3. win
the last 18 times the hawkeyes have played at kinnick stadium in november, they are 17-1 su. Iowa's kaleb johnson has 1100+ rushing this yr w/16 td's/7.8 per carry. the badgers gave up 1778 rushing to penn st last week, and nearly that much to rutgers 3 weeks ago. the hawks also switched to a running qb last week. my word is fight-fight-fight for iowa until the walls and rafters ring.
. I love college fight songs.[/quote]
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