Trivia Question About The Polls

[boxedlunch]

Okay, what's the average winning percentage of higher ranked teams when two AP ranked teams play each other?

[Deleted]

I give up. How is that information extracted?

[boxedlunch]

Aug 1, 2014 18:07:35 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

I give up. How is that information extracted?

Wouldn't that be cheating?

[Deleted]

Do I win a prize? The answer is 62.2%.

Vs Lower GmRnk Tms: 2781-(50.0%)-(1693-1013-75)--0.622
Vs Higher GmRnk Tms: 2781-(50.0%)-(1013-1693-75)--0.378
Vs Same GmRnk Tms: 4-(0.1%)-(2-2-0)--0.500

Guaranteed that I'm the only one here besides you who could have gotten the information.

[boxedlunch]

Aug 1, 2014 21:15:31 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Do I win a prize? The answer is 62.2%.

Vs Lower GmRnk Tms: 2781-(50.0%)-(1693-1013-75)--0.622
Vs Higher GmRnk Tms: 2781-(50.0%)-(1013-1693-75)--0.378
Vs Same GmRnk Tms: 4-(0.1%)-(2-2-0)--0.500

Guaranteed that I'm the only one here besides you who could have gotten the information.

Ah, not even gonna guess eh.


Well, you can also filter by rank range. Select the polls you want to compare and enter a range of 1 to 99.

link

Screen with options set

[boxedlunch]

I'm impressed you got the exact options you needed, including the "All teams" option.

[Deleted]

Aug 1, 2014 22:19:55 GMT -5 boxedlunch said:

I'm impressed you got the exact options you needed, including the "All teams" option.

I still don't get the significance of putting in 1-99. The screen automatically puts in -99 and 99. The information pulled up was different, but I got the information from the footnotes after I clicked on the total record. How does 1 and 99 pull up the exact information needed with the result being the percentage of wins of higher ranked teams over lower ranked teams and why didn't -99 and 99 do the same thing?

Some of the abbreviations haven't been clear to me so I didn't know what the selections could do. I'm glad you're around to give the straight scoop. I could play with them until I figure them out. That's what I've been doing since I stumbled onto the site a few years ago.

The site is better than any I've seen for getting accurate and useable information. Congratulations for running such a great site.

[boxedlunch]

The -99 to 99 is a range. Since nobody is ever 99 positions away from another team -99 to 99 covers everybody. If you want to compare teams ranked within 5 positions of each other you can put in -5 to 5. The -5 covers five positions higher than the team (higher meaning lower number) and the 5 covers five positions lower. For instance if a team is ranked #10, putting -5 to -1 will get teams ranked 5 to 9, if the team rank is 15 then it covers 10 to 14. If you put in 1-5, for #10 it would get teams 11-14, for 15 it gets 16-20.

I know it's confusing. I used to have an option "higher than" or "lower than" and knew this would be much more ocnfusing, but at the same time it is much more useful. I usually go with making the tool more powerful, even if nobody can figure it out. In the end, it's my toy.

[Deleted]

We will be starting our pick'em challenge a week or so before the season kicks off. You'll want to participate. Trn, the nolie, keeps track of the challenge on a spread sheet. He'll put up an old movie quote to open the pick'em thread of the week.

I can see where this tool can be useful insofar as how % wise ranked teams will perform against one another. My guess is you've added the home and away toy as well. That leaves the difficulty of applying the Vegas spread to come up at your best guesstimate as to who will win after applying the spread. Trn has won two years running so we all want to knock him off.

[boxedlunch]

Well, it's probably best not to put much more stock into the numbers other than trivia. You can look at the same situation multiple ways.

Looking at this chart, we see that the teams that places 30th in the AP poll has won 5 games against the #5 team and lost only 1.

AP Rank Vs AP Rank

Are we to presume that #30 is a good pick against #5? Probably and exception. We've already established that the higher ranked team wins 62.2% of their games. Which one applies here?

Of course, that 62.2% includes games where there's a large spread, like #1 vs #25. If we go with teams that are with 10 positions, the percentage drops to 59.0% If we go with teams within 5 positions, it's 57.0%. There are various ways to look at anything. I suspect that it's not a good predictor.


Neither am I, for that matter. I'm better at looking back than looking ahead, so I rarely do pick-ems and I don't do rankings, at least not serious ones. We'll see, though. Thanks for the invite.

[daleko]

Aug 2, 2014 11:47:09 GMT -5 boxedlunch said:

The -99 to 99 is a range. Since nobody is ever 99 positions away from another team -99 to 99 covers everybody.

Only because ET is on this thread do I have to ask (it's like picking on a sore), was GS within 99 positions of Fla?

[Deleted]

Aug 5, 2014 14:27:05 GMT -5 daleko said:

Aug 2, 2014 11:47:09 GMT -5 boxedlunch said:

The -99 to 99 is a range. Since nobody is ever 99 positions away from another team -99 to 99 covers everybody.

Only because ET is on this thread do I have to ask (it's like picking on a sore), was GS within 99 positions of Fla?

I hope Georgia Southern has enough sense to never take another game in Gainesville. (chuckle)

It's Great To Be A 4 & 8er!