Post by mscott59 on Sept 5, 2015 22:42:08 GMT -5
2. since i've been spending some time on delta flights this week, the sept. edition of delta sky magazine has a pretty interesting story. they interviewed meyer and coach k, on creating a successful culture. a good read.
3. like the question facing the buckeyes in '15, can we go back to back liz's?
South Carolina -3 v. North Carolina (Charlotte) -- cool matchup in charlotte where i was yesterday/this am. about halfway for both fan bases. tough call here. unc has 17 starters back vs 12 for the 'cocks. i like usc-e's defense, plus last year they had 10+ leads in the 4th qtr 3 times and lost. imho spurrier crew learned from that experience. south carolina.
Michigan +5 1/2 at Utah -- 4th meeting recently between these two; in the first 3 utes won twice and covered all of them, so normally i'd take um in the dog role here. but utah has a talent edge, um had much more trouble defending on the road in '14 than they did at home, and i wonder if the higher altitude might have an effect as the game gets late. if the line was 7 or 8 i'd lead to the ugly hats, but 5 isn't enough. utah.
TCU -14 1/2 at Minnesota -- even though the frogs won easily last year vs the gophers, 30-7, that was the lowest offensive output of the season for tcu. boykin figures to be better, but as i've mentioned here earlier, minnesota may have the best db's in the big 10 this year. tcu just 5-11 as away favorites, while the gophers are 9-5 getting pts at home the last 4 yrs. a statement game for both teams; is tcu really as good as #2? is minnesota really improved enough to challenge for the big 10 west? i'm taking the 1/2 pont here because i think it will matter. minnesota.
Washington +12 at Boise State -- uw coach chris peterson returns to the blue turf, where he went 48-2 at home for bsu. huge talent/experience edge to the broncos here (18 returning starters vs 8), and boise has done well when pac 12 teams visit idaho. boise state.
Virginia +17 at UCLA -- new qb for the bruins, but 18 other starters return. uva nearly pulled off the upset last year at home, foiled by 3 defensive ucla td's. the cavs haven't won a road game since '12, but ucla is horrible as a big home favorite. they're also just 2-9 ats at home vs a team w/revenge. virginia.
Stanford -12 at Northwestern -- cardinal is getting a lot of pub as a darkhorse for the pac 12/cfb playoff. 'cats figure to be improved over last year, and in '14 they upset wisconsin who plays a lot like su. (daleko thinks su copied uw, but i digress). i still think n'western's new qb will struggle though vs a quality defense. stanford.
Louisville +10 1/2 v. Auburn (Atlanta) -- yes the cards got pounded by uga in their bowl game last year. yes, auburn has defensive guru muschamp on staff now w/8 def starters back. but the tigers lost a ton of talent on offense, l'ville's d looks a lot better than a year ago (3 transfers, 2 from uga). cards are an impressive 10-2 ats when getting pts away from home since '11. rollin the dice on this one staying within a score. louisville.
Arizona State +3 v. TAMU (Houston) -- both teams are improved over a year ago, but asu has 9 starters returning on defense off a 10-3 season in which they went 4-2 vs ranked teams. i think the sun devils are the better team, so getting points is a bonus, even though they are just 2-6-1 as dogs away from tempe recently. arizona state.
BYU +6 1/2 at Nebraska -- mike riley era begins in lincoln. new offensive strategy and that usually takes time. slight lean to unl.
Texas +9 1/2 at Notre Dame -- nd is just 5-9-1 ats the last 3 yrs as home chalk. horns trying to bounce back after their 2nd losing season in the last 5 years; 5 losses were by 21+. ouch. irish offense looks loaded. betting public usually inflates the boys from south bend, especially at home, but this line looks about right. a shaky nod to texas.
Wisconsin +10 v. Alabama (Arlington) -- uw bounced back from the big 10 ccg shellacking to knock off auburn, who ran up 630 yards of total offense in the '14 iron bowl. the tide has had to stew over its 2nd straight bcs bowl loss for 9 mos where they gave up 530 yards to osu. clement will take over gordon's role nicely at rb, but the badgers don't have the balanced attack that au and osu had vs bama. saban is 8-0 ats as an ooc favorite of less than 28 pts. hard to see wisconsin being able to just bludgeon the tide d on the ground. even w/their ??'s at qb, bama is better on both sides of the ball, and should win by 2 td's+. alabama.
Ohio State -11 at Virginia Tech -- before bosa and his buddies got suspended, this line was -17 and i would have given it. that's how much value the experience osu's o-line and qb's gained since the vt loss last year (a game in which the bucks actually outgained the hokies, but 3 to's, a pick 6 and 7 sacks they couldn't overcome). last time vt was this big a dog at home ('12 vs fsu, +12.5) they nearly pulled off an upset (28-22 loss). hokies have been a home dog just 6 times in the last decade, going 4-2 ats. brewer's a quality qb, they have a te who will be playing on sundays and their d remains good w/a crafty blitz scheme. plus this game being in blacksburg under the lights. and yet, in addition to osu's talent, one fact stands out; since 2010, the bucks have played 8 times vs a team who beat them the previous season. osu has won all 8, by an average of 14 pts, going 7-1 ats. those are gaudy, not lucky, numbers. ohio state.
5-6 heading into OSU-vt
