WEEK 7 -- "Oh, by the way...

[Deleted]

Well, I can't do worse than Trn did last week!


Stanford

Northwestern

Memphis

Texas A&M

Michigan St

LSU

Notre Dame

OHIO STATE!

Utah

Florida St

Kansas St

Miami FL

[Deleted]

Dang, more people are taking Florida than I thought they would.

[cbisbig]

Oct 14, 2015 9:44:10 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Dang, more people are taking Florida than I thought they would.

I am considering changing my pick since your #1 qb is out

[beuycek]

An absolute classic movie this week. "Maybe you need a refresher course. It's all ball bearings nowadays!"



UCLA +6 1/2 @ Stanford -- Bruins, Thursday night road dog!

Iowa -2 1/2 @ Northwestern -- Hawkeyes -- WIN

Ole Miss -10 1/2 @ Memphis -- Memphis -- WIN

Alabama -4 1/2 @ TAMU -- Tide -- WIN

Michigan State +7 @ Michigan -- Fighting Harbaughs

UF +9 1/2 @ LSU -- Tigers

USC +6 1/2 @ Notre Dame -- Irish -- WIN

Penn State +17 @ Ohio State -- GO BUCKS! -- WIN

Arizona State +6 1/2 @ Utah -- Utes -- WIN

Louisville +7 @ Florida State -- Noles -- WIN

Oklahoma -4 1/2 @ Kansas State -- KState

Virginia Tech +6 @ Miami -- Canes -- WIN

[Deleted]

Oct 14, 2015 11:23:09 GMT -5 cbisbig said:

Oct 14, 2015 9:44:10 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Dang, more people are taking Florida than I thought they would.

I am considering changing my pick since your #1 qb is out

Don't listen to me in you decision, but UF is going to win straight up. The Gators D is going to hit Leonard Fournette with a 4x4 support post and Treon Harris isn't your typical second stringer. When Fournette gets to bama, he'll be damaged goods.

[gatr55555]

THURSDAY GAME:

UCLA +6 1/2 @ Stanford: UCLA

SATURDAY GAMES:

Iowa -2 1/2 @ Northwestern: Northwestern

Ole Miss -10 1/2 @ Memphis: Memphis W

Alabama -4 1/2 @ TAMU: aTm

Michigan State +7 @ Michigan: MSU W

UF +9 1/2 @ LSU: UF W

USC +6 1/2 @ Notre Dame: ND W

Penn State +17 @ Ohio State: PSU

Arizona State +6 1/2 @ Utah: Utah W

Louisville +7 @ Florida State: FSU W

Oklahoma -4 1/2 @ Kansas State: KSU

Virginia Tech +6 @ Miami: VT


6-6

[mscott59]

movie... is it a certain chevy chase as a undercover reporter thing? been a while... great slate of games this week

THURSDAY GAME:

UCLA +6 1/2 @ Stanford: they're in different pac 12 divisions, but this is an elimination game for any playoff hopes for the trees and bruins. stanford has won/covered 4 straight after the opening loss at n'western. ucla looking to bounce back off a home drubbing to arizona st. cardinal has absolutely dominated this series lately, winning 6 straight by an average of 20 pts. i think hogan is the best qb on the left coast, but su is winning games on their feet, putting up 300+ rushing the last 2 games. and rush defense is not exactly ucla's strength. that said, lots of trends favoring the bruins here; they've 5-0 off a bye, 6-2 ats getting points on the road. stanford is just 2-11 ats as home chalk off a bye and 0-6 as favorite vs a team off a loss as a favorite. speaking of that (cfb nerd stat of the week #1) league road dogs of +6+ off a home favorite loss are 43-11-1 ats since '80. add in the revenge factor (the 31-10 loss last year was ucla coach jim mora's worst home drubbing of his entire career)? u... c... l... a... u-c-l-a fight fight fight.

SATURDAY GAMES:

Iowa -2 1/2 @ Northwestern: nu's season hit a sinkhole in ann arbor last week, losing 38-0. hawkeyes quietly moved to 6-0 beating illinois 29-20 behind rb canzeri going for 256 on 43 carries. but they also lost their best d-lineman to injury. iowa's run game vs a wildcat d that, even after the loss to um, is still giving up just 100/game on the ground. iowa is 5-1 ats as road chalk. n'western tho has covered 7 straight games after scoring 10/less. they've also lost a 2nd straight game, after suffering their first loss of the season, 5 of the last 6 years. slight lean to iowa.

Ole Miss -10 1/2 @ Memphis: rebels rebounded from the uf loss by pummeling new mexico st. memphis is off a bye and looking to stay unbeaten w/the upset. ol' miss has a&m on deck and might be peeking ahead. the tigers are focused squarely on the sec school 70 miles down the road. both teams feature strong offenses. rebels are 0-4 ats as ooc favorites of 17/less. tigers are 4-1 ats w/rest and 4-1 as home dogs of 3+. and (nerd stat #2) 5-0 or better teams getting 5+ pts are 25-13-1 ats since '80. mississippi should win, but i'm taking the points. memphis.

Alabama -4 1/2 @ TAMU: tide seems to have regained its balance, winning 3 straight after losing to ol miss in a game where the world could see alabama was better but just threw it away. seriously, alabama's defense has looked very alabama-like this year except for that game with the rebels. they've held 5 opponents to season lows in total yards, and the other (mississippi) to their 2nd lowest. impressive. i'm sure its also a result of saban yelling at his presser last week that his team doesn't play for the media. ok, i'll quit. undefeated a&m will certainly have motivation after getting humiliated 59-0 last year. and home dogs off a bye off a win vs league foes off a win are 103-56-5 ats since '80. that's a nice trend. but the aggies are also 0-9 ats off rest, and just 1-3 ats the last 3 years getting points at home. but the tide is just 4-9 ats the last 2+ years as road favorites, and 1-6 away vs teams off a bye. when in doubt, go with the better team. alabama.

Michigan State +7 @ Michigan: when the season began, vegas had sparty at -5.5 in this game. since then, a 13 pt line swing. interesting. msu is undefeated but has yet to cover a game this year. interesting. um has dominated its last 3 opponents, shutting them all out. but they haven't won/covered 4 straight games since '06. interesting. um is 4-10 ats as big 10 single digit home favorites. sparty is getting a td here despite winning 6 of the last 7 in this series (7-0 ats), going 19-1 su in its last 20 league games, and winning 10 straight big 10 games on the road. interesting. msu is also 10-3-1 ats the last 4 years as a road dog. michigan state.

UF +9 1/2 @ LSU: well, if you've talked to bryan (he's been subtle about this), any lsu fan, or basically seen any sec game on cbs this year, fournette has already been awarded the heisman. no doubt about his talent (only the 10th cfb player ever to reach 1000 yds rushing in 5 games), but he and the tigers will face their toughest defensive foe to date saturday night. for the 4th straight week, lsu will be facing a back up qb taking snaps, but also a defense giving up just 100 yds/game on the ground i've mentioned earlier that i like good defenses on the road... gators are 7-2 ats as road dogs recently. but uf did give up 250+ rushing to tennessee a few weeks ago. tigers are just 19-36-1 ats as favorites in the 2nd of back/back sec home games, and 5-16 ats as league chalk off 2+ wins. the real question here is, which qb named harris will be able to throw effectively? a lot of trends favoring the dog here, too. 5-0 teams as faves in game 6 are 124-171-4 ats since '80. game 6 unbeatens as dogs, who played in a bowl the previous year, and are off a 9+ win are 10-0-1 ats since '91. the 5-0 +5+ stat i quoted earlier applies here, and 5-0 or better teams, getting points, who are off a 16+ win, vs unbeaten opponents off a 20/better win, are 23-5 against the number since 1980. too much karma to go against. florida.

USC +6 1/2 @ Notre Dame: firing coaches 5 games into the season is becoming pretty trendy at troy. at least since '13. when kiffin got kanned, usc came back the next week and beat arizona. now, after sark gets lets go, the trojans head to south bend. they beat nd 48-14 last year. 2nd most lopsided result in the 86 yr history of the series. sc is an incredible road dog off a loss, 13-0 ats, but just 5-13 ats on the road overall. this line went up from +3 after the coaching change. irish still have playoff aspirations and revenge as motivation. they're 8-9-1 as home faves (3-0 this year), but just 1-6 ats -14/less in the 2nd of back/back home games, and 2-10-1 as home faves w;revenge off a win. 4-10 ats vs power 5 league teams. nd does have the more explosive, consistently, offense. weather may be an issue though. chilly (low 50s) and chance of rain. i can't let go of that stat off a loss for sc though. that includes 9 straight wins off a loss. usc.

Penn State +17 @ Ohio State: lost a c-note+ on the alma mater vs maryland, thinking last saturday would be the day osu puts things together. bucks have not covered a game since the opener at va tech. offense finally ran more smoothly, but the d for a 2nd straight week couldn't contain a mobile qb. psu's hackenberg is anything but mobile. nitts are a quiet 5-1. solid d (11th in country), but still inconsistent on offense w/a hot and cold o-line. psu playing its first true road game of the season outside pa. visitor has won 6 of the last 8 games in this series. bucks are 0-6 ats the last 6 games as home chalk. you'd think they're due. psu is 0-6 +6/more off a 10+ win. nitts are just 2-8 ats their last 10 visits to columbus. shaky nod to ohio state.

Arizona State +6 1/2 @ Utah: most visible game in recent utah history last week vs cal. utes were a little fortunate that the bears couldn't hold onto the ball (5 picks and a fumble) in a 30-24 win. utah is undefeated but has actually been outgained in half of those wins... countered by being +11 in turnover ratio. now they face an asu program that they've never beaten. 0-11 all time, 0-4 since joining the pac 12. sun devils are just 3-7-2 as road dogs the last 4+ years. utah falls into that 5-0 team as a favorite trend as well. i'm not sold that asu is that good, but i'll take the points. arizona state.

Louisville +7 @ Florida State: fsu survived the canes 29-24. l'ville is off a bye after beating nc state 20-14 in raleigh. cook ran well for the noles after being iffy w/his hamstring injury. fsu is averaging 260+ rushing at home this year, historically the cardinals are an outstanding road dog, 12-2 ats since '11. they've actually covered their last 13 games away from home getting points and are 15-1 ats on the road vs acc opponents, which is incredible. under fisher fsu is just 2-14 ats as home chalk -14/less, 0-7 in that scenario vs teams seeking revenge (fsu won 42-31 in ky last year). i think those trends are why a 2-3 team is getting just 7 on the road vs an unbeaten nole team. i think the line is off by 5 or 6 points. florida state.

Oklahoma -4 1/2 @ Kansas State: ksu is off a heartbreaking 52-45 loss to tcu, the sooners off a shocking 24-17 loss to texas in dallas. wildcats upset the sooners in norman 31-30 a year ago. sooners are 5-7 ats the last couple years giving points away from home, but get this... the last 23 times ou has lost a regular season game, they've come back to win the next one. in the last 15 games after a loss, they are 11-4 ats. impressive. you wonder how much snyder's kids have left in the tank after dramatic losses the last 2 weeks. there's no better home dog in the country (6-1 ats since '11) but i'm on the sooner schooner this week. oklahoma.

Virginia Tech +6 @ Miami: canes gave the noles all they could handle last week before losing. va tech found a little offense in beating nc state to even its record at 3-3. hokies are 10-4 ats in the series, but miami has covered 3 of the last 4, included a 30-6 blowout last year in blacksburg. vt is 5-2 ats getting points on the road, 11-4 as a dog off a win. their pass defense is pretty good, and passing is miami's main weapon on offense. canes win... virginia tech covers.

[cbisbig]

Oct 14, 2015 19:03:10 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

movie... is it a certain chevy chase as a undercover reporter thing? been a while... great slate of games this week

THURSDAY GAME:

UCLA +6 1/2 @ Stanford: they're in different pac 12 divisions, but this is an elimination game for any playoff hopes for the trees and bruins. stanford has won/covered 4 straight after the opening loss at n'western. ucla looking to bounce back off a home drubbing to arizona st. cardinal has absolutely dominated this series lately, winning 6 straight by an average of 20 pts. i think hogan is the best qb on the left coast, but su is winning games on their feet, putting up 300+ rushing the last 2 games. and rush defense is not exactly ucla's strength. that said, lots of trends favoring the bruins here; they've 5-0 off a bye, 6-2 ats getting points on the road. stanford is just 2-11 ats as home chalk off a bye and 0-6 as favorite vs a team off a loss as a favorite. speaking of that (cfb nerd stat of the week #1) league road dogs of +6+ off a home favorite loss are 43-11-1 ats since '80. add in the revenge factor (the 31-10 loss last year was ucla coach jim mora's worst home drubbing of his entire career)? u... c... l... a... u-c-l-a fight fight fight.

SATURDAY GAMES:

Iowa -2 1/2 @ Northwestern: nu's season hit a sinkhole in ann arbor last week, losing 38-0. hawkeyes quietly moved to 6-0 beating illinois 29-20 behind rb canzeri going for 256 on 43 carries. but they also lost their best d-lineman to injury. iowa's run game vs a wildcat d that, even after the loss to um, is still giving up just 100/game on the ground. iowa is 5-1 ats as road chalk. n'western tho has covered 7 straight games after scoring 10/less. they've also lost a 2nd straight game, after suffering their first loss of the season, 5 of the last 6 years. slight lean to iowa.

Ole Miss -10 1/2 @ Memphis: rebels rebounded from the uf loss by pummeling new mexico st. memphis is off a bye and looking to stay unbeaten w/the upset. ol' miss has a&m on deck and might be peeking ahead. the tigers are focused squarely on the sec school 70 miles down the road. both teams feature strong offenses. rebels are 0-4 ats as ooc favorites of 17/less. tigers are 4-1 ats w/rest and 4-1 as home dogs of 3+. and (nerd stat #2) 5-0 or better teams getting 5+ pts are 25-13-1 ats since '80. mississippi should win, but i'm taking the points. memphis.

Alabama -4 1/2 @ TAMU: tide seems to have regained its balance, winning 3 straight after losing to ol miss in a game where the world could see alabama was better but just threw it away. seriously, alabama's defense has looked very alabama-like this year except for that game with the rebels. they've held 5 opponents to season lows in total yards, and the other (mississippi) to their 2nd lowest. impressive. i'm sure its also a result of saban yelling at his presser last week that his team doesn't play for the media. ok, i'll quit. undefeated a&m will certainly have motivation after getting humiliated 59-0 last year. and home dogs off a bye off a win vs league foes off a win are 103-56-5 ats since '80. that's a nice trend. but the aggies are also 0-9 ats off rest, and just 1-3 ats the last 3 years getting points at home. but the tide is just 4-9 ats the last 2+ years as road favorites, and 1-6 away vs teams off a bye. when in doubt, go with the better team. alabama.

Michigan State +7 @ Michigan: when the season began, vegas had sparty at -5.5 in this game. since then, a 13 pt line swing. interesting. msu is undefeated but has yet to cover a game this year. interesting. um has dominated its last 3 opponents, shutting them all out. but they haven't won/covered 4 straight games since '06. interesting. um is 4-10 ats as big 10 single digit home favorites. sparty is getting a td here despite winning 6 of the last 7 in this series (7-0 ats), going 19-1 su in its last 20 league games, and winning 10 straight big 10 games on the road. interesting. msu is also 10-3-1 ats the last 4 years as a road dog. michigan state.

UF +9 1/2 @ LSU: well, if you've talked to bryan (he's been subtle about this), any lsu fan, or basically seen any sec game on cbs this year, fournette has already been awarded the heisman. no doubt about his talent (only the 10th cfb player ever to reach 1000 yds rushing in 5 games), but he and the tigers will face their toughest defensive foe to date saturday night. for the 4th straight week, lsu will be facing a back up qb taking snaps, but also a defense giving up just 100 yds/game on the ground i've mentioned earlier that i like good defenses on the road... gators are 7-2 ats as road dogs recently. but uf did give up 250+ rushing to tennessee a few weeks ago. tigers are just 19-36-1 ats as favorites in the 2nd of back/back sec home games, and 5-16 ats as league chalk off 2+ wins. the real question here is, which qb named harris will be able to throw effectively? a lot of trends favoring the dog here, too. 5-0 teams as faves in game 6 are 124-171-4 ats since '80. game 6 unbeatens as dogs, who played in a bowl the previous year, and are off a 9+ win are 10-0-1 ats since '91. the 5-0 +5+ stat i quoted earlier applies here, and 5-0 or better teams, getting points, who are off a 16+ win, vs unbeaten opponents off a 20/better win, are 23-5 against the number since 1980. too much karma to go against. florida.

USC +6 1/2 @ Notre Dame: firing coaches 5 games into the season is becoming pretty trendy at troy. at least since '13. when kiffin got kanned, usc came back the next week and beat arizona. now, after sark gets lets go, the trojans head to south bend. they beat nd 48-14 last year. 2nd most lopsided result in the 86 yr history of the series. sc is an incredible road dog off a loss, 13-0 ats, but just 5-13 ats on the road overall. this line went up from +3 after the coaching change. irish still have playoff aspirations and revenge as motivation. they're 8-9-1 as home faves (3-0 this year), but just 1-6 ats -14/less in the 2nd of back/back home games, and 2-10-1 as home faves w;revenge off a win. 4-10 ats vs power 5 league teams. nd does have the more explosive, consistently, offense. weather may be an issue though. chilly (low 50s) and chance of rain. i can't let go of that stat off a loss for sc though. that includes 9 straight wins off a loss. usc.

Penn State +17 @ Ohio State: lost a c-note+ on the alma mater vs maryland, thinking last saturday would be the day osu puts things together. bucks have not covered a game since the opener at va tech. offense finally ran more smoothly, but the d for a 2nd straight week couldn't contain a mobile qb. psu's hackenberg is anything but mobile. nitts are a quiet 5-1. solid d (11th in country), but still inconsistent on offense w/a hot and cold o-line. psu playing its first true road game of the season outside pa. visitor has won 6 of the last 8 games in this series. bucks are 0-6 ats the last 6 games as home chalk. you'd think they're due. psu is 0-6 +6/more off a 10+ win. nitts are just 2-8 ats their last 10 visits to columbus. shaky nod to ohio state.

Arizona State +6 1/2 @ Utah: most visible game in recent utah history last week vs cal. utes were a little fortunate that the bears couldn't hold onto the ball (5 picks and a fumble) in a 30-24 win. utah is undefeated but has actually been outgained in half of those wins... countered by being +11 in turnover ratio. now they face an asu program that they've never beaten. 0-11 all time, 0-4 since joining the pac 12. sun devils are just 3-7-2 as road dogs the last 4+ years. utah falls into that 5-0 team as a favorite trend as well. i'm not sold that asu is that good, but i'll take the points. arizona state.

Louisville +7 @ Florida State: fsu survived the canes 29-24. l'ville is off a bye after beating nc state 20-14 in raleigh. cook ran well for the noles after being iffy w/his hamstring injury. fsu is averaging 260+ rushing at home this year, historically the cardinals are an outstanding road dog, 12-2 ats since '11. they've actually covered their last 13 games away from home getting points and are 15-1 ats on the road vs acc opponents, which is incredible. under fisher fsu is just 2-14 ats as home chalk -14/less, 0-7 in that scenario vs teams seeking revenge (fsu won 42-31 in ky last year). i think those trends are why a 2-3 team is getting just 7 on the road vs an unbeaten nole team. i think the line is off by 5 or 6 points. florida state.

Oklahoma -4 1/2 @ Kansas State: ksu is off a heartbreaking 52-45 loss to tcu, the sooners off a shocking 24-17 loss to texas in dallas. wildcats upset the sooners in norman 31-30 a year ago. sooners are 5-7 ats the last couple years giving points away from home, but get this... the last 23 times ou has lost a regular season game, they've come back to win the next one. in the last 15 games after a loss, they are 11-4 ats. impressive. you wonder how much snyder's kids have left in the tank after dramatic losses the last 2 weeks. there's no better home dog in the country (6-1 ats since '11) but i'm on the sooner schooner this week. oklahoma.

Virginia Tech +6 @ Miami: canes gave the noles all they could handle last week before losing. va tech found a little offense in beating nc state to even its record at 3-3. hokies are 10-4 ats in the series, but miami has covered 3 of the last 4, included a 30-6 blowout last year in blacksburg. vt is 5-2 ats getting points on the road, 11-4 as a dog off a win. their pass defense is pretty good, and passing is miami's main weapon on offense. canes win... virginia tech covers.

You always have some very interesting stats, just curious of your source?

[mscott59]

Oct 14, 2015 19:19:20 GMT -5 cbisbig said:

Oct 14, 2015 19:03:10 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

movie... is it a certain chevy chase as a undercover reporter thing? been a while... great slate of games this week

THURSDAY GAME:

UCLA +6 1/2 @ Stanford: they're in different pac 12 divisions, but this is an elimination game for any playoff hopes for the trees and bruins. stanford has won/covered 4 straight after the opening loss at n'western. ucla looking to bounce back off a home drubbing to arizona st. cardinal has absolutely dominated this series lately, winning 6 straight by an average of 20 pts. i think hogan is the best qb on the left coast, but su is winning games on their feet, putting up 300+ rushing the last 2 games. and rush defense is not exactly ucla's strength. that said, lots of trends favoring the bruins here; they've 5-0 off a bye, 6-2 ats getting points on the road. stanford is just 2-11 ats as home chalk off a bye and 0-6 as favorite vs a team off a loss as a favorite. speaking of that (cfb nerd stat of the week #1) league road dogs of +6+ off a home favorite loss are 43-11-1 ats since '80. add in the revenge factor (the 31-10 loss last year was ucla coach jim mora's worst home drubbing of his entire career)? u... c... l... a... u-c-l-a fight fight fight.

SATURDAY GAMES:

Iowa -2 1/2 @ Northwestern: nu's season hit a sinkhole in ann arbor last week, losing 38-0. hawkeyes quietly moved to 6-0 beating illinois 29-20 behind rb canzeri going for 256 on 43 carries. but they also lost their best d-lineman to injury. iowa's run game vs a wildcat d that, even after the loss to um, is still giving up just 100/game on the ground. iowa is 5-1 ats as road chalk. n'western tho has covered 7 straight games after scoring 10/less. they've also lost a 2nd straight game, after suffering their first loss of the season, 5 of the last 6 years. slight lean to iowa.

Ole Miss -10 1/2 @ Memphis: rebels rebounded from the uf loss by pummeling new mexico st. memphis is off a bye and looking to stay unbeaten w/the upset. ol' miss has a&m on deck and might be peeking ahead. the tigers are focused squarely on the sec school 70 miles down the road. both teams feature strong offenses. rebels are 0-4 ats as ooc favorites of 17/less. tigers are 4-1 ats w/rest and 4-1 as home dogs of 3+. and (nerd stat #2) 5-0 or better teams getting 5+ pts are 25-13-1 ats since '80. mississippi should win, but i'm taking the points. memphis.

Alabama -4 1/2 @ TAMU: tide seems to have regained its balance, winning 3 straight after losing to ol miss in a game where the world could see alabama was better but just threw it away. seriously, alabama's defense has looked very alabama-like this year except for that game with the rebels. they've held 5 opponents to season lows in total yards, and the other (mississippi) to their 2nd lowest. impressive. i'm sure its also a result of saban yelling at his presser last week that his team doesn't play for the media. ok, i'll quit. undefeated a&m will certainly have motivation after getting humiliated 59-0 last year. and home dogs off a bye off a win vs league foes off a win are 103-56-5 ats since '80. that's a nice trend. but the aggies are also 0-9 ats off rest, and just 1-3 ats the last 3 years getting points at home. but the tide is just 4-9 ats the last 2+ years as road favorites, and 1-6 away vs teams off a bye. when in doubt, go with the better team. alabama.

Michigan State +7 @ Michigan: when the season began, vegas had sparty at -5.5 in this game. since then, a 13 pt line swing. interesting. msu is undefeated but has yet to cover a game this year. interesting. um has dominated its last 3 opponents, shutting them all out. but they haven't won/covered 4 straight games since '06. interesting. um is 4-10 ats as big 10 single digit home favorites. sparty is getting a td here despite winning 6 of the last 7 in this series (7-0 ats), going 19-1 su in its last 20 league games, and winning 10 straight big 10 games on the road. interesting. msu is also 10-3-1 ats the last 4 years as a road dog. michigan state.

UF +9 1/2 @ LSU: well, if you've talked to bryan (he's been subtle about this), any lsu fan, or basically seen any sec game on cbs this year, fournette has already been awarded the heisman. no doubt about his talent (only the 10th cfb player ever to reach 1000 yds rushing in 5 games), but he and the tigers will face their toughest defensive foe to date saturday night. for the 4th straight week, lsu will be facing a back up qb taking snaps, but also a defense giving up just 100 yds/game on the ground i've mentioned earlier that i like good defenses on the road... gators are 7-2 ats as road dogs recently. but uf did give up 250+ rushing to tennessee a few weeks ago. tigers are just 19-36-1 ats as favorites in the 2nd of back/back sec home games, and 5-16 ats as league chalk off 2+ wins. the real question here is, which qb named harris will be able to throw effectively? a lot of trends favoring the dog here, too. 5-0 teams as faves in game 6 are 124-171-4 ats since '80. game 6 unbeatens as dogs, who played in a bowl the previous year, and are off a 9+ win are 10-0-1 ats since '91. the 5-0 +5+ stat i quoted earlier applies here, and 5-0 or better teams, getting points, who are off a 16+ win, vs unbeaten opponents off a 20/better win, are 23-5 against the number since 1980. too much karma to go against. florida.

USC +6 1/2 @ Notre Dame: firing coaches 5 games into the season is becoming pretty trendy at troy. at least since '13. when kiffin got kanned, usc came back the next week and beat arizona. now, after sark gets lets go, the trojans head to south bend. they beat nd 48-14 last year. 2nd most lopsided result in the 86 yr history of the series. sc is an incredible road dog off a loss, 13-0 ats, but just 5-13 ats on the road overall. this line went up from +3 after the coaching change. irish still have playoff aspirations and revenge as motivation. they're 8-9-1 as home faves (3-0 this year), but just 1-6 ats -14/less in the 2nd of back/back home games, and 2-10-1 as home faves w;revenge off a win. 4-10 ats vs power 5 league teams. nd does have the more explosive, consistently, offense. weather may be an issue though. chilly (low 50s) and chance of rain. i can't let go of that stat off a loss for sc though. that includes 9 straight wins off a loss. usc.

Penn State +17 @ Ohio State: lost a c-note+ on the alma mater vs maryland, thinking last saturday would be the day osu puts things together. bucks have not covered a game since the opener at va tech. offense finally ran more smoothly, but the d for a 2nd straight week couldn't contain a mobile qb. psu's hackenberg is anything but mobile. nitts are a quiet 5-1. solid d (11th in country), but still inconsistent on offense w/a hot and cold o-line. psu playing its first true road game of the season outside pa. visitor has won 6 of the last 8 games in this series. bucks are 0-6 ats the last 6 games as home chalk. you'd think they're due. psu is 0-6 +6/more off a 10+ win. nitts are just 2-8 ats their last 10 visits to columbus. shaky nod to ohio state.

Arizona State +6 1/2 @ Utah: most visible game in recent utah history last week vs cal. utes were a little fortunate that the bears couldn't hold onto the ball (5 picks and a fumble) in a 30-24 win. utah is undefeated but has actually been outgained in half of those wins... countered by being +11 in turnover ratio. now they face an asu program that they've never beaten. 0-11 all time, 0-4 since joining the pac 12. sun devils are just 3-7-2 as road dogs the last 4+ years. utah falls into that 5-0 team as a favorite trend as well. i'm not sold that asu is that good, but i'll take the points. arizona state.

Louisville +7 @ Florida State: fsu survived the canes 29-24. l'ville is off a bye after beating nc state 20-14 in raleigh. cook ran well for the noles after being iffy w/his hamstring injury. fsu is averaging 260+ rushing at home this year, historically the cardinals are an outstanding road dog, 12-2 ats since '11. they've actually covered their last 13 games away from home getting points and are 15-1 ats on the road vs acc opponents, which is incredible. under fisher fsu is just 2-14 ats as home chalk -14/less, 0-7 in that scenario vs teams seeking revenge (fsu won 42-31 in ky last year). i think those trends are why a 2-3 team is getting just 7 on the road vs an unbeaten nole team. i think the line is off by 5 or 6 points. florida state.

Oklahoma -4 1/2 @ Kansas State: ksu is off a heartbreaking 52-45 loss to tcu, the sooners off a shocking 24-17 loss to texas in dallas. wildcats upset the sooners in norman 31-30 a year ago. sooners are 5-7 ats the last couple years giving points away from home, but get this... the last 23 times ou has lost a regular season game, they've come back to win the next one. in the last 15 games after a loss, they are 11-4 ats. impressive. you wonder how much snyder's kids have left in the tank after dramatic losses the last 2 weeks. there's no better home dog in the country (6-1 ats since '11) but i'm on the sooner schooner this week. oklahoma.

Virginia Tech +6 @ Miami: canes gave the noles all they could handle last week before losing. va tech found a little offense in beating nc state to even its record at 3-3. hokies are 10-4 ats in the series, but miami has covered 3 of the last 4, included a 30-6 blowout last year in blacksburg. vt is 5-2 ats getting points on the road, 11-4 as a dog off a win. their pass defense is pretty good, and passing is miami's main weapon on offense. canes win... virginia tech covers.

You always have some very interesting stats, just curious of your source?

for the current year stuff, there are a few sites i look at for stats in addition to reading the espn/cbs sports/yahoo sites. scoresandodds.com has some interesting stuff, as do playbook and ncsports which are two sites done by guys in cleveland. and, the idiot cfb nerd that i am, i keep track myself. even though you can find historical stuff on line and thru publications. i write down scores for each of the d-1 and nfl teams, the spreads/totals, and will jot some notes down on injuries, new players, etc. i'm just fascinated by how, sometimes, you can combine trends w/the eye test and figure out how a game might turn out. or not... that oblong ball can bounce funny. lol. when i'm not at an osu game, i'm watching games. i just love the sport. i've been a big cfb fan as long as i can remember. love all sports, and played them all thru hs and beyond in various forms. age and diminishing skills and marriage/parenthood/career eventually put everything but golf and tennis on the shelf. but i still love watching all of them, and cfb is tops. i wish i'd kept all the crap i do during the seasons... started saving it about 25 years ago. sitting at the bottom of the bookshelf her in my den, right next to this book from some oklahoma kicker back in the 70s. since i travel a lot for work, it gives me something else to do besides company stuff at airports and hotels. i think its fun... jodi rolls her eyes at me a lot this time of year. actually she does that most of the year, but at least during the fall i know why. but she at least tolerates the football seasons, and i try to make up for it the other 8 months by not charting any other sports.

[cbisbig]

Oct 14, 2015 19:46:44 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

Oct 14, 2015 19:19:20 GMT -5 cbisbig said:

You always have some very interesting stats, just curious of your source?

for the current year stuff, there are a few sites i look at for stats in addition to reading the espn/cbs sports/yahoo sites. scoresandodds.com has some interesting stuff, as do playbook and ncsports which are two sites done by guys in cleveland. and, the idiot cfb nerd that i am, i keep track myself. even though you can find historical stuff on line and thru publications. i write down scores for each of the d-1 and nfl teams, the spreads/totals, and will jot some notes down on injuries, new players, etc. i'm just fascinated by how, sometimes, you can combine trends w/the eye test and figure out how a game might turn out. or not... that oblong ball can bounce funny. lol. when i'm not at an osu game, i'm watching games. i just love the sport. i've been a big cfb fan as long as i can remember. love all sports, and played them all thru hs and beyond in various forms. age and diminishing skills and marriage/parenthood/career eventually put everything but golf and tennis on the shelf. but i still love watching all of them, and cfb is tops. i wish i'd kept all the crap i do during the seasons... started saving it about 25 years ago. sitting at the bottom of the bookshelf her in my den, right next to this book from some oklahoma kicker back in the 70s. since i travel a lot for work, it gives me something else to do besides company stuff at airports and hotels. i think its fun... jodi rolls her eyes at me a lot this time of year. actually she does that most of the year, but at least during the fall i know why. but she at least tolerates the football seasons, and i try to make up for it the other 8 months by not charting any other sports.

Impressive, especially the part about charting the teams. You should have a blog

[Coaltrain]

Oct 14, 2015 9:44:10 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Dang, more people are taking Florida than I thought they would.

It's all about the history and the odds. Plus, I usually check stats. Dang, and I don't know shit about football. Oh well, Lee taught me... not my fault.

[oujour76]

Oct 14, 2015 19:46:44 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

but i still love watching all of them, and cfb is tops. i wish i'd kept all the crap i do during the seasons... started saving it about 25 years ago. sitting at the bottom of the bookshelf her in my den, right next to this book from some oklahoma kicker back in the 70s. since i travel a lot for work, it gives me something else to do besides company stuff at airports and hotels. i think its fun... jodi rolls her eyes at me a lot this time of year. actually she does that most of the year, but at least during the fall i know why. but she at least tolerates the football seasons, and i try to make up for it the other 8 months by not charting any other sports.

A personalized, autographed book.

[oujour76]

Oct 14, 2015 19:46:44 GMT -5 mscott59 said:

but i still love watching all of them, and cfb is tops. i wish i'd kept all the crap i do during the seasons... started saving it about 25 years ago. sitting at the bottom of the bookshelf her in my den, right next to this book from some oklahoma kicker back in the 70s. since i travel a lot for work, it gives me something else to do besides company stuff at airports and hotels. i think its fun... jodi rolls her eyes at me a lot this time of year. actually she does that most of the year, but at least during the fall i know why. but she at least tolerates the football seasons, and i try to make up for it the other 8 months by not charting any other sports.

A personalized, autographed book.

[oldgraylady]

Uwe, Uwe, Uwe

[trnyerheadncough]

Oct 14, 2015 20:16:30 GMT -5 Coaltrain said:

Oct 14, 2015 9:44:10 GMT -5 ETGator1 said:

Dang, more people are taking Florida than I thought they would.

It's all about the history and the odds. Plus, I usually check stats. Dang, and I don't know shit about football. Oh well, Lee taught me... not my fault.

It is your fault for picking Lee as a teacher. Look at his track record for Pete's sake!!!!