Houston -7 1/2 at Cincinnati - attractive game to start the week. qb greg ward and rb duke catalon missed uh's game vs lamar nursing some bangs and bruises. both are expected to start/play. both teams are good at causing turnovers (uc had 5 picks at purdue, getting their 1st win on the road vs a big 10 foe in half a century). cougars are 7-1 ats as road chalk, but 'cats are 8-2-1 ats getting points at home. plus cincy had beaten houston 6 straight til last year's close loss. a home league dog on thursday night... i like it. cincinnati.
Florida State -3 at Louisville - one of the bigger, if not the biggest, regular season game in the history of l'ville football. fsu has covered 4 of its last 5 as acc road favorites of 10/less. 2 yrs ago here the noles stumbled to a 24-7 halftime deficit then roared back to win/cover 42-31. cards have looked like g-o-a-t vs charlotte and 'cuse. this team they play saturday, though, has a defense. plus louisville is 0-6 ats at home w/revenge off a 10+ ats win. florida state.
Miami -4 1/2 at Appalachian State - canes have been a pleasant surprise w/2 easy wins, again albeit vs easy opponents. they're definitely making a stop in flyover country to play asu. the u is just the 3rd fbs program to ever visit boone, nc, so it's history making. but despite how tough the mountaineers played in knoxville, their previous 2 games vs fbs foes ended in a 41-10 loss to clemson, and a 52-14 loss to michigan. miami is just 2-15 ats off back to back wins lately, but they're also 8-0 ats as -9/less ooc favorites vs a team off a win. i feel a couple canes' kick returns will make the difference. u of miami.
Vanderbilt +6 1/2 at Georgia Tech - on the scoreboard vandy got back on track beating mid. tenn. st 47-24 last week, but in reality the 'dores got outgained by 100+ yards. but i was unimpressed w/tech's close win vs bc 2 weeks ago, and the jackets have a short week w/a revenge game hosting clemson on deck thursday night. i'll take the points. vanderbilt.
Oregon +3 at Nebraska - yet another team in the huskers where i'm wondering if they're for real after 2 impressive wins over unimpressive competition. going back to the end of the '12 season, the last 5 times unl has been a favorite of 5/less, they've not covered one of them, and have lost the last 4 outright. i like armstrong at qb for nebraska, and you have to figure new coach mike riley will help immensely w/his experience playing uo while coaching oregon state. that said, the ducks have won 28 of their last 31 road games, covering 23 of them, 7-1 ats on the road vs big 10 foes and 13-1 ats the last 14 times they've been an ooc road dog. those trends are hard to pass up. oregon.
Alabama -10 at Ole Miss - so we saw how nick saban feels about beating teams like wku by only 28. we've seen how inexperienced the rebels' o-line is in the 2nd half vs fsu 2 weeks ago. normally a 10+ home dog who's beaten the opponent 2 years in a row (1st time in mississippi history over the tide) would be an obvious choice. ol' miss has covered 8 of the last 11 vs alabama, and is 6-0 ats getting points at home. but i look at saban's defense, going up against a rebel team w/no starters back on the o-line from last year.... scary. tide is 9-3 ats as a sec road favorite w/revenge. and the last 3 times (it's only happened 3 times) saban has lost to a team twice in a row, that 3rd game has won 32-7, 32-13 and 21-0 (i didn't see that game live-lol). i'll be surprised if chad kelly is still upright at the end of this one. alabama.
Pittsburgh +6 1/2 at Oklahoma State - lots has been made of the refs' gaffe in stillwater last week, conveniently ignoring the fact that if the cowboys had 1) just ran backwards and taken a knee, or 2) actually defended the last play of the game, they would have won. that mindset worries me. pitt nearly blew a 28-7 lead vs psu but survived. the panthers are 0-3 ats after plays the nitts, but (cfb nerd stat alert) game 3 ooc home teams off a su loss are just 47-68-2 ats since '80, 5-17 ats vs opponents who won 7+ games the previous year. 6 1/2 is too many to give. pittsburgh
Michigan State +7 1/2 at Notre Dame - sparty looked sloppy in their opener vs furman and has had 2 weeks to stew about it. irish bounced back from the texas loss w/an easy win over nevada (tho a nevada kick returner who stepped out of the endzone, then took a knee, therefore a safety, allowing nd to win AND cover, when i had nevada +28, did not make me happy). irish have decided on kizer at qb, but they are a putrid 0-5 ats at home vs a team w/rest, 2-12 ats as -6/more favorites vs big 10 opponents, while msu is 19-8 ats on the road overall lately, 9-3 ats getting points. footnote; last year was the first time since 1914 that notre dame did not play a big 10 opponent in the regular season. they may wish this year's schedule was the same. michigan state
Southern California +8 1/2 at Stanford - trojans are 9-3-1 ats w/revenge getting 5+ pts vs a pack 12 opponent. and it's double revenge, since the cardinal knocked off sc twice last year. as good as stanford is, i was surprised they didn't run the ball that well in their opener vs kansas st. mccafferty running back kicks still scares the hell out of me, which is why i'm staying away from this game, but i will lean with the dog. usc.
Texas -7 1/2 at California - nerd cfb stat alert #2. 2-0 teams as road favorites in game 3 are 0-7 ats when off a 30+ su win. cal is 9-2 ats as an ooc home dog. the bears' defense is a sieve but their offense is good enough to hang around. california.
Ohio State -1 1/2 at Oklahoma - in the meyer era, osu has played 19 regular season games away from home since the start of the '12 season. the record? 19-0 su, 13-6 ats. that su record is the longest such streak in the country. and it's in jeopardy this week. the sooners are getting points in norman, that hasn't happened since 2000 (ou won that game 31-14 over unl). stoops' club has already played one high profile foe; for the 16 first time buckeye starters this year, it's their first ever road trip. that concerns me... a lot. i'd be happy with a 1 point win. oklahoma.
Colorado +20 1/2 at Michigan - competition also gets a little (emphasis on the little) tougher for harbaugh's team. buffs have shown some offensive firepower early, tho they're also 0-4 ats lately vs big 10 opponents. um on the other hand, is 1-7 ats the last 8 games vs the pac 12. despite beating ucf 51-14, the wolverines gave up a ton (275) of yards on the ground. that's worrisome vs a cu team averaging 260+ rushing/game so far. back door cover. colorado.
UCLA -3 1/2 at BYU - bruins slipped by byu 24-23 last year. cougars are used to close games in '16, beating arizona at the gun 18-16 then trying a 2 pt conversion late to win vs rival utah and failing, losing 20-19. ucla is 0-5 ats as road chalk w/stanford up next... the last 3 times byu has been a home dog, they've both covered and won all 3. brigham young
Texas A&M +3 1/2 at Auburn - auburn is 2-12 vs sec revenge. visitor has both covered and won all 4 of the games between these 2 the last 4 years. i'm going with 5. texas a&m
O Tay....... 
