since cwg already answered this memorable movie line, let me just add that inigo montoya also sings a mean 'somewhere over the rainbow'. as for this week's games... time to start putting some heat on the leaders...
Clemson -9 1/2 @ Georgia Tech - tigers certainly enter this game having underperformed year to date, and you'd think they'd be ready to bust out. but the home team in this series has not just covered, but won outright the last 7 times they've played. cu is just 2-7 ats the last 9 giving points on the road, while gt is 7-2 ats getting points at home, and 5-0 ats w/revenge off a su win. plus this cfb nerd stat alert #1; +6/more league road dogs are 47-24-4 ats since '80, and that improves to 34-10-2 ats when the opponent is off a su/ats win. tech has beaten clemson 5 straight times in atlanta, and their getting nearly 10 points? too many. georgia tech.
USC +3 @ Utah - serious signs of discontent out of troy. going back nearly 20 years, usc has scored 10 pts or less just 4 times vs league opponents, the 27-10 loss to stanford being the 4th. 2 years ago utah scored a td w/0:08 left to win 24-21, and the home team has covered the last 5 games. utes are unbeaten but just 5-10 ats as home chalk lately, while the trojans are an impressive 13-2-1 ats as a pac 12 dog off a pac 12 loss. i'll take a chance on southern cal.
Georgia +7 @ Ole Miss - the last 3 times the rebels have been a favorite vs an sec foe after playing alabama, they've lost all 3. the dawgs have also won 10 straight outright vs ol' miss. it's not that i don't think kelly & co. can score enough pts to cover... it's that i don't think their defense is good enough. i thought the frosh uga qb, eason, came of age some in leading the game winning drive at mizzou. i like chubb at rb, especially since the rebs have been very sieve-like up front vs the rush attacks of fsu/alabama. i'm bucking a couple trends here (miss is 13-7-1 ats as home favorites, bulldogs 1-6 ats as road dogs)... i think this is a high scoring affair. georgia.
Florida State -6 @ South Florida - noles only giving 6 on the road in tampa to usf? vegas overreacting to that beatdown in louisville or is it something else? the bulls are 3-0 ats vs fsu, 8-0 ats at home lately, and have covered 13 of their last 16 games overall. i like their rb (mack?) who ran for 13 yd/carry last week. fsu's frosh qb francois really came unglued last saturday. his team is 7-0 ats off a loss vs ooc opponents, but the nole defense has looked shaky for 6 of the 8 qtrs played vs quality competition. and in a game like this, where a premier program is facing an in-state foe who take the game much more seriously? including this cfb nerd stat #2; home dogs off scoring 40+ in each of its previous 3 games are 20-5 ats. south florida.
Wisconsin +5 1/2 @ Michigan State - sparty started strong then held on to beat nd. problem is, msu is 1-7 ats after beating the irish (overall teams are 10-22-2 ats after beating notre dame as underdogs lately, fyi). uw certainly isn't blowing teams away not named akron, but bucky badger is a really good (7-2-1 ats) big 10 road dog, while sparty is 3-10 ats lately giving points. even with questions at qb, i'm taking wisconsin.
Florida +6 1/2 @ Tennessee - vols sleep walk thru appy state, then destroy va tech. they then sleep walk thru ohio... will this be a pattern? gators are good getting points (8-4 ats of late), and obviously their success vs tennessee (11 straight, 19 of the last 23, and only 1 of those 4 losses were by more than a fg) is impossible to ignore. so is the qb question, even tho uf's defense is top shelf, allowing just 42 yds/game on the ground. but last year tennessee ran for 250+, easily the most allowed by uf in '15. i think there's confidence in that stat, how they had control of last year's game til the end, and a decade plus worth of revenge built up. i think they get it. tennessee.
more later.
Penn State +18 1/2 @ Michigan - Nittany Lions
Oklahoma State +8 1/2 @ Baylor - Bears
Stanford -3 @ UCLA - Cardinal
Arkansas +6 @ Texas A&M - Gig 'em
BYU +7 @ West Virginia - Mountaineers
Pittsburgh +7 @ North Carolina - Heels