since cwg already answered this memorable movie line, let me just add that inigo montoya also sings a mean 'somewhere over the rainbow'. as for this week's games... time to start putting some heat on the leaders...
Clemson -9 1/2 @ Georgia Tech - tigers certainly enter this game having underperformed year to date, and you'd think they'd be ready to bust out. but the home team in this series has not just covered, but won outright the last 7 times they've played. cu is just 2-7 ats the last 9 giving points on the road, while gt is 7-2 ats getting points at home, and 5-0 ats w/revenge off a su win. plus this cfb nerd stat alert #1; +6/more league road dogs are 47-24-4 ats since '80, and that improves to 34-10-2 ats when the opponent is off a su/ats win. tech has beaten clemson 5 straight times in atlanta, and their getting nearly 10 points? too many. georgia tech.
L gt actually picked off a pass on their goalline, then fumbled it and recovered it for a safety. ensuring punt clemson gets a td. 9 pts. ugh.USC +3 @ Utah - serious signs of discontent out of troy. going back nearly 20 years, usc has scored 10 pts or less just 4 times vs league opponents, the 27-10 loss to stanford being the 4th. 2 years ago utah scored a td w/0:08 left to win 24-21, and the home team has covered the last 5 games. utes are unbeaten but just 5-10 ats as home chalk lately, while the trojans are an impressive 13-2-1 ats as a pac 12 dog off a pac 12 loss. i'll take a chance on southern cal.
L it looked like a good choice til the final secondsGeorgia +7 @ Ole Miss - the last 3 times the rebels have been a favorite vs an sec foe after playing alabama, they've lost all 3. the dawgs have also won 10 straight outright vs ol' miss. it's not that i don't think kelly & co. can score enough pts to cover... it's that i don't think their defense is good enough. i thought the frosh uga qb, eason, came of age some in leading the game winning drive at mizzou. i like chubb at rb, especially since the rebs have been very sieve-like up front vs the rush attacks of fsu/alabama. i'm bucking a couple trends here (miss is 13-7-1 ats as home favorites, bulldogs 1-6 ats as road dogs)... i think this is a high scoring affair. georgia.
L at least one team scored a lotFlorida State -6 @ South Florida - noles only giving 6 on the road in tampa to usf? vegas overreacting to that beatdown in louisville or is it something else? the bulls are 3-0 ats vs fsu, 8-0 ats at home lately, and have covered 13 of their last 16 games overall. i like their rb (mack?) who ran for 13 yd/carry last week. fsu's frosh qb francois really came unglued last saturday. his team is 7-0 ats off a loss vs ooc opponents, but the nole defense has looked shaky for 6 of the 8 qtrs played vs quality competition. and in a game like this, where a premier program is facing an in-state foe who take the game much more seriously? including this cfb nerd stat #2; home dogs off scoring 40+ in each of its previous 3 games are 20-5 ats. south florida.
L thought usf was going to get the back door coverWisconsin +5 1/2 @ Michigan State - sparty started strong then held on to beat nd. problem is, msu is 1-7 ats after beating the irish (overall teams are 10-22-2 ats after beating notre dame as underdogs lately, fyi). uw certainly isn't blowing teams away not named akron, but bucky badger is a really good (7-2-1 ats) big 10 road dog, while sparty is 3-10 ats lately giving points. even with questions at qb, i'm taking wisconsin.
W finally.Florida +6 1/2 @ Tennessee - vols sleep walk thru appy state, then destroy va tech. they then sleep walk thru ohio... will this be a pattern? gators are good getting points (8-4 ats of late), and obviously their success vs tennessee (11 straight, 19 of the last 23, and only 1 of those 4 losses were by more than a fg) is impossible to ignore. so is the qb question, even tho uf's defense is top shelf, allowing just 42 yds/game on the ground. but last year tennessee ran for 250+, easily the most allowed by uf in '15. i think there's confidence in that stat, how they had control of last year's game til the end, and a decade plus worth of revenge built up. i think they get it. tennessee.
W tale of 2 halvesmore later.
Penn State +18 1/2 @ Michigan - 4th straight home game for harbaugh's crew. um's d and special teams have been pretty good at scoring points. so can the nitts avoid mistakes to stay in this game? psu has been horrible on the road lately (2-11-1 ats the last 4+ yrs) but they've put up about 35/game so far this season. hard for me to count on the ugly hats getting the kind of 'hidden' production such as last week; blocked punt for td, purt return for td, another punt foul up setting up a SHORT field for another td.
L dumb pickOklahoma State +8 1/2 @ Baylor - last year, w/o their starting qb, baylor won in stillwater for the first time since 1939, knocking off 10-0 osu. bears have played nobody, cowboys got shocked by central mich and barely got by pitt. the numbers say baylor is better. okla state has double revenge, and a trend; game 4 teams in their 1st away game, w/revenge, vs a league opponent off back/back wins is 15-2-1 ats since '80. but here i'm going w/the eye test. baylor.
W smart pick, tho the cowboys ended the game inside the baylor 20Stanford -3 @ UCLA - cardinal has looked very solid in wins over kansas st and usc. they've also beaten ucla 8 straight times. mccaffrey has been a one man band, generating over half of su's offense. the bruins held byu to 23 yards rushing last week, and is 7-2 su vs unbeaten opponents, while the boys from the farm are just 4-6 su after beating the trojans. plus, ucla has out-statted each of its first 3 foes yet not covered a game, upset. ucla.
L i had the bruins +3.5 for a little lunch money, so that final play of the game was rather costlyArkansas +6 @ Texas A&M - game is at jerry world. aggies have 2 quality wins over ucla and at auburn. while the razorbacks pulled a rabbit out of their hat winning at tcu. edge a&m, who's won 4 straight over the hogs. edge arkansas. i like their qb, austin allen, who's thrown for 650+ yards and is hitting 67% of his passes. aggies are 7-17-1 ats vs sec opponents, while bielema's boys are 9-2-1 as sec dogs. arkansas.
L aggies really turned it on down the stretchBYU +7 @ West Virginia - cougars have won just 1 game, they've been outgained in all 3, but they've covered all 3. but byu has also played 3 quality ('zona, utah ucla) foes w/a total point difference of just 6. mountaineers have the better offense but they're just 4-8 ats as favorites away from home (game is in baltimore). byu is 6-1 ats as road dogs off back/back losses, and i think their defense is significantly better than wvu's. brigham young.
W all 4 of byu's games have been decided by 3 or lessPittsburgh +7 @ North Carolina - have to wonder what the general psyche is in chapel hill, w/everything going on down there. pitt gave up a td w/0:39 left to lose by 7 at oklahoma state last week. panthers' offense has been outstanding, but their defense, specifically their pass d, has been awful, to the tune of allowing 430+/game. unc is 17-9 ats as home chalk but has the noles up next, while pitt 5-2 ats getting pts on the road and has a 5-0 ats record w/revenge. pittsburgh.
W pitt has given up nearly 1000 yards passing in just the last 2 games5-7. ugh.
