well, i'm dead last in my nfl picking contest, i'm tied for last in my fantasy league, in my survivor league i started w/4 picks and i'm already down to my last one 3 weeks into the pro season, and in this douche of a contest i'm below the mendoza line. i thought about just quitting, this contest and this board, but i'm inspired by those idiots at the top right now. trn may end my on line life in this contest, and walt could take away my virtual access to the outcasts, but they can never take away my freedom to continue screwing up my picks.
Friday Game
Stanford +3 @ Washington: on its face su getting points is very very attractive. cardinal is 7-1 as a dog since '12. but uw is 17-9 ats as home chalk lately and the home team has won/covered 4 of the last 5 in this series. both were fortunate to win last week on the road. mccaffrey was held out of the endzone for the 1st time in 16 games. but su has played the better schedule, has the better d and is 5-0 ats as a dog vs unbeaten foes. stanford.
Saturday Games
Texas +2 1/2 @ Oklahoma State: horns d has looked horrible vs decent competition (nd, cal). cowboys aren't much better, giving up 470 yds/game. road team in this series is 7-0-1 ats lately, but the favorite has gone 6-0-1 ats. texas is 5-0 ats off a bye/loss; okie state 0-5 vs teams w/rest. texas.
Miami -7 @ Georgia Tech: watched gt play clemson last week and was not impressed. canes have had a nice start vs a very easy schedule. miami is off a bye, which is good, beat an option team in appy state 2 weeks ago, so they're more familiar w/johnson's scheme, and richt knows gt from his days at uga. but historically the u is 2-15 off back/back su/ats wins, 1-13 ats off a bye/win, and has a rivalry game w/fsu on deck. love kaaya at qb, but i'm taking georgia tech.
Tennessee -3 1/2 @ Georgia: vols erased 11 years of heartache, the last 2 being nightmares, vs uf last week. ut is 8-1 giving points away from home since '12, but 1-5 ats after playing the gators. this is the 1st time the dogs have been a home dog since '11 and they have revenge, blowing a 24-3 lead last yr in a 38-31 loss. would feel much better if i knew for sure chubb was healthy, though. tennessee.
North Carolina +11 @ Florida State: noles did enough on offense to bury usf, but not enough to keep fisher from bawling them out for the tv cameras last week. unc had a nice comeback win vs pitt but the heels' d was on the field for 41:00. wow. and now they go up against the noles' offense after pitt rushed for 300+? cook has to be salivating, but fsu's d has allowed 34, 63 and 35 pts vs d-1a foes, plus the canes are on the horizon backdoor cover. carolina.
Wisconsin +10 1/2 @ Michigan: uw shocked plenty in beating sparty 30-6 last week, but did you know the badgers got outgained? that msu had 5 drives of 46+ yards yet got only 3 pts total on those possessions? badgers caused 4 turnovers, 1 scoring on a pick 6 and another setting up a SHORT field for a td. um's d has held each opponent to season lows in total yds, plus this is their 5th straight home game. michigan
Oklahoma -3 1/2 @ TCU: curious as to the team psyche in norman, where a season w/playoff hopes now already has 2 losses. good news? sooners are 33-0 su/23-9 ats playing off a regular season loss. i watched tcu play smu last week and the frogs were up just 6-3 at the half before closing strong. that 1/2 pt scares me, w/tcu being 2-0 ats as home dogs since '13. but stoops is 802 ats/10-0 su off 3 straight ats losses. oklahoma.
Louisville -2 @ Clemson: no matter how good the cards have looked so far this year, i'm shocked they're favored in death valley. jackson has put up video game-like numbers, but the tigers d is holding opponents 200+ yds below their average. watson's offense has yet to get untracked, though. i think that changes saturday. cu is 8-2 ats as home dogs vs unbeaten opponents. clemson.
Navy +7 1/2 @ Air Force: we all know how good the flyboys are, based on their pasting of georgia state, at least according to our resident colorado expert.
but they've lost 3 of the last 4 matchups w/the middies. the dog in this game has actually won 8 of the last 13... amazing. navy is 26-9 ats getting points on the road... really amazing. both are unbeaten, but afa got outgained by nearly 100 yds in their win at utah st. air force has the experience but.... navy.
Arizona +13 1/2 @ UCLA: 'zona gave washington all they could handle in an ot loss saturday. bruins led 13-9 late in the 4th before stanford scores twice in the last 0:30. emotional edge to ua. but the talent edge, especially on defense, is all in westwood. ucla
Florida -10 @ Vandy: you wonder where the gators' heads are at too after the 2nd half collapse in knoxville. vandy meanwhile stole a win over wku in ot. yes, the 'dores played tough last yr in a 9-7 loss to uf, but the home team in this series is 0-8 ats lately. gators are 5-0 ats off a 10+ loss. and do you know how many pts vandy averages vs sec opponents the last 2+ yrs? 218 pts in the last 17 games. by my math that's around 13/game. not enough. florida.
Utah +2 @ California: cal outgained ariz st by 200 yds saturday nite, but had 3 4th qtr turnovers (costing 10 pts) plus allowed an onside kick to be returned for the final td. the bears' offense is putting up 45/game. utes are unbeaten, surviving 2 close games vs byu/usc, despite being outgained by the trojans. utah is 1-8 ats vs pac 12 teams playing w/revenge, teams off a win over sc are just 25-39-1 ats since '80. california
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
Jan 13, 2020 17:38:49 GMT -5
May 1, 2022 14:04:40 GMT -5
