UNC +7 1/2 @ Miami: heels off a drubbing from va tech, canes a shocking 1-pt loss to fsu on a blocked xp. home team here has won 8 of the last 12 and covered 9-12. one interesting stat. unc beat the noles but got outgained by 60 yds. miami lost to them last week despite outgained fsu by 130+. u qb kaaya showed some grit, hanging tough after getting his throwing shoulder buried into the turn and later losing a tough on a head shot (obviously fsu didn't get the message on using just skin in that rumble). miami 6-3-1 ats as home chalk, tar heels 7-0 ats getting pts vs acc team off a favorite loss. i think it's easier to get back up off the mat after a blowout than a heartbreaker. north carolina.
Mississippi -7 1/2 @ Arkansas: 1st true road game for the rebels (played fsu in orlando to open season). a td+ is a lot of points to give vs a team who's beaten you each of the last 2 seasons. dog in this series has covered the last 5. ol' miss is just 1-10 ats giving pts away from home off a win. hogs are 9-3 ats off a loss, make it 10-3. arkansas.
Stanford +3 @ Notre Dame: man, did the cardinal look like a fish after skinning or what vs washington state? and at home no less. that's back/back losses for the first time since '09. plus su is 0-4 ats as road dogs off a loss. that said, they're also 5-2 ats getting points away from home. irish threw away last week's game vs nc state in a monsoon. they are 5-0 ats w/revenge the last 4 yrs. with mccaffrey being a non-factor, especially away from palo alto, notre dame.
Ohio State -10 @ Wisconsin: i posted earlier how close osu's games have been in madison since '91. so a 10 point spread is surprising. another tidbit; bucks are 0-6 ats the last 6 times after playing indiana. go figure. badgers have had a week off since losing 14-7 in ann arbor, but they really did not play well vs um. the last time uw was a home dog was in '10, vs tosu (+4) in a 31-18 win. there are 2 trends going against 5-0 road faves and another favoring a home team off a bye after 2 road games. my eye test tells me osu is better by 2 td's, but those trends are troubling. wisconsin.
NC State +17 1/2 @ Clemson: you hope the wolfpack's cleats are dried out enough to play at death valley. tigers righted their offense in destroying bc last week and have a bye next so no need to look ahead to fsu. nc state's d is good, but their offense doesn't have enough to stay w/ the home team. clemson.
Kansas State +11 @ Oklahoma: no doubt who has more offensive firepower here. but there is no better team to bet on getting points than k-state. the visiting team in this series has covered the last 7 games, including ou's 55-0 whitewash in manhattan last year. wildcats are 9-2 ats playing w/big 12 revenge, 5-0 ats getting 10+ vs a league opponent, and ksu has the better d of these 2. sooners seem to scuffle sometimes after texas. kansas state.
Alabama -13 @ Tennessee: i am amazed that the vols were even in last week's game vs a&m after committing 7 turnovers. even vs a defense as good as alabama's you have to figure that won't continue. you also figure the tide will stop scoring defensive/special team td's too, tho so far they haven't stopped. bama has dominated this series in knoxville lately (ave win margin of 24 pts last 4 games) but i thought kamara stepped in and played impressively last week. the tide didn't exactly smother arkansas' offense (allowed 473 yds). in their 2 sec road games to date, saban's bunch has scored 97 but allowed 30 and 43 pts, benefitting from 5 non-offensive td's in those 2 games. i'll take the points. tennessee.
UCLA +7 @ Washington State: wsu is off maybe it's most prominent back/back wins (oregon, stanford) in school history, but now they're a favorite. bruins have underachieved oer usual so far this year, but their d is still real good. wish i knew more about ucla qb rosen's health status for tomorrow, but i'm hoping for a backdoor cover. ucla.
Nebraska -3 1/2 @ Indiana: this game opened unl -7 so some heavy $$ has flowed toward the hoosiers. they're off a ot win vs sparty and a 3 td loss at osu which beat expectations. huskers, at 5-0 and off a bye, did not look good at illinois. i think that means they're due. when the public goes big one way, more times than not it's time to go the other direction. nebraska.
West Virginia +1 @ Texas Tech: wvu just 1-9 ats off a bye week. in the last 2 years, tech has scored 50+ in all 9 of its home games. unreal. red raiders are also 6-0 ats as home chalk. btw take the over on 1000 total yds of offense in this game. texas tech.
Tulsa +21 1/2 @ Houston: lots of offense expected here too. cougars off a tough loss to navy. tulsa is 6-0 ats getting 3 tds+ in league play, and i wonder if houston's psyche is too damaged after seeing their playoff hopes burst. tulsa.
Arizona State +13 1/2 @ Colorado: sun devils have won 7 straight vs the buffs, and now they're getting 2 td's? from a team just 1-6 ats as pac 12 home favorites? gimme gimme. arizona state.