“A whole bottle of pills! My God, get an ambulance!”
“Wait a minute, will ya? We don't even know what kind!”
“What difference does it make? He took a whole bottle!”
“Well, maybe they were vitamins! He could be the healthiest one in the room!”
sounds like quotes from one of those buddy movies w/old guys (morgan freeman, robert deniro, michael douglas, et al)??
1. NOTRE DAME -13.5 at BOSTON COLLEGE
historically games between these 2 have been close, and bc's covered the last 3 in the series, mainly because this is a much bigger game for the eagles than the domers. bc is 0-5 ats getting pts at home but 13-2 ats vs .500 or better foes who are off a favorite loss. irish have a revenge matchup vs sparty on deck and are just 5-10 ats as road chalk. bc actually outgained wake forest last week but 4 turnovers made for a misleading final. boston college.
2. CINCINATI +5.5 at MIAMI, OH
i think they spell cincinnati w/3 'n's down there in the river city, walt. just an fyi. bearcats have won 11 straight in this series, but miami has covered the last 4. i believe this is actually the longest-running non-conference series in the nation; they played every year since 1909 except for a couple due to ww2. redhawks are much improved in '17, but after losing 11 straight they shouldn't be giving this many points. cincinnati. with 3 'n's...
3. OKLAHOMA ST. -13.5 at PITTSBURGH
i found a stat showing that teams who start the season 2-0 su/ats are just 28-55 ats as road chalk since 1980. 4-17 ats when giving 10+. hmm. cowboys look like a well-oiled machine on offense, but i'm still unsure about their d vs higher quality opposition (tulsa ran for 244 on them 2 weeks ago). plus they have a high profile game vs tcu next week. look ahead-itis? pitt looked plucky vs psu last saturday, and gave osu fits (45-38 loss) last yr. plus the panthers are 8-1 ats getting 12+ at home. pittsburgh.
4. UCLA -3 at MEMPHIS
yeah the early start matters here. what matters more to me is memphis being 15-3 ats as home dogs vs teams off back/back wins, and ucla being 0-6 ats off back/back wins. plus the bruins have stanford up next, who the bruins have lost to 8 straight times. ucla has allowed nearly 500 yds/game in its first two, and the tigers have a good offense. upset alert. memphis.
5. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +14 at NEBRASKA
huskers vs huskies. unl made a nice comeback at oregon that fell just short. huskers are 10-1 ats as -5/more faves off an ooc game, but they're 5-10-1 ats lately as home chalk. niu meanwhile has been absolute money (17-5 ats) getting pts on the road (may they're good dogs because they're huskies???), 25-8-1 ats their last 34 road games. plus they have a bye week up next... northern illinois.
6. BAYLOR +14 at DUKE
no more shocking results opening the season than the bears losing to liberty and texas-san antonio. duke spanked n'western last week, which i think has inflated this line a little, and with the blue devils having unc up next i'm wondering about look-ahead. also wondering if a team as successful as baylor has been recently gets angry after those embarrassing 1st two games. i'll take a flier on baylor keeping this close.
7. CLEMSON -3 at LOUISVILLE
that 2-0 stat i quoted earlier for okla st applies here too for the defending champs. tough spot for clemson after a physical slug fest against auburn. last year louisville ran up 588 yds of offense on the tigers. cards are 7-1 ats as dogs of +6/less. cu's d had 11 sacks last week, but lamar jackson is a better qb. plus the tigers are 0-6 ats the last 6 times they've been an acc road favorite of less than a td. louisville.
8. WISCONSIN -17 at BYU
1st ever trip to provo for the badgers. 1st true ooc road game in 4 yrs for uw too. you have an embarrassed home dog in the cougars who've lost 2 straight, but are 5-0 ats lately getting pts at home. the guys from madison have been a good road favorite (4-1 ats last 5 games giving 10+) but i remember good badgers teams struggling at unlv a couple times (altitude?). i've hung my hat on every underdog so far so why change now? byu.
9. TENNESSEE +5 at FLORIDA
gators have now had 2 weeks to lick their wounds from the loss to michigan, plus had a life perspective check dealing with irma aftermath. uf's d really played better than the final score vs um and i thought the vols' d left a lot to be desired vs ga tech. the team who wins the rushing battle in this game has won 14 of the last 15. uf won 11 straight before losing last yr, so there's a revenge factor, plus tennessee is just 4-13-1 ats off a 14+ win. the irony of taking florida as my first favorite this week is not lost on me. lol
10. COLORADO STATE +28.5 at ALABAMA
after not covering last week vs the fighting fresno state tedfords, and w/the sec league schedule up next week, there is a possibility saban rests a few starters in the 2nd half here. csu is 5-1 ats getting 24+, while the tide is 2-10 ats the last 12 times as ooc chalk of 24+. but it's been 2 yrs since alabama has failed to cover games back to back. alabama.
11. LSU -7 at MISSISSIPPI STATE
yet another 2-0 team hitting the road as a favorite. msu has covered the last 3 games in the series, which have all been decided by 5/less pts. 1st road game of the year for the tigers who've looked good early, especially on d. the numbers say the bulldogs are worth a live look, but under orgeron lsu has been 7-2 ats and msu is just 3-6 ats at home.
louisiana state edit at 11:27 pm friday night. after looking a little more deeply, there are 3 trends all going against the bayou boys. home dogs w/revenge off a 35+ win are 48-26-1 ats. plus .700+ league home dogs of +6+ off back/back w's vs teams off back/back w's are 34-11-2 ats. too much to ignore. changing my pick to mississippi state. hope that's ok.
12. KANSAS STATE -4 at VANDERBILT
wildcats have looked good going 2-0 vs nobodies. same for vandy, who is also 8-2-1 ats as home dogs. tough call here, but i'll go with the trends. vanderbilt.
13. TEXAS +16.5 at USC
based on how texas played vs maryland and sc did vs stanford, this looks too easy. but the horns are 4-1 ats as 10+ dogs, and tom herman is 5-0 ats getting pts as a head coach. trojans just 1-3 ats after stanford and have cal on deck. sc is 14-7 ats as home chalk the last 3+ yrs. texas.
14. MISSISSIPPI -3.5 at CALIFORNIA
1st ever meeting between these 2, and just the 2nd time ol' miss has ever played in the pacific time zone. cal looked impressive in their opener vs unc, not so much last week vs weber state. rebs have 2 home wins vs fcs opponents, but i like their qb patterson, who looks like a good one. bears are just 6-16 as home dogs and care more about sc next week. rebs are an awful 7-22-1 ats as road chalk but have a bye week next before playing alabama. mississippi.
15. STANFORD -9.5 at SAN DIEGO ST.
this is way over our established quota of 2 west coast games per week. aztecs are off back/back 11-3 seasons and looked good upsetting asu last week. cardinal is 6-0 ats as road chalk lately, and in bounceback mode after the usc loss (11-4 ats after last 15 losses). cfb nerd stat of the week... unbeaten home dogs who bowled last yr are 15-1 ats since 2000 when playing an unbeaten foe allowing 14+/game. san diego state.
