WEEK 6
5 OCTOBER 17
1. (4-1) #17 LOUISVILLE -4 AT (4-1) NORTH CAROLINA STATE
wolfpack just 3-7 ats last 4 yrs getting pts at home and just 1-4 su/ats the last 5 vs 'ville. in '16 the cards led nc state 44-0 at half. lots of revenge mojo here for the home team's 22 seniors. love the pack's d-line and think they can give lamar jackson some problems. but the bigger factor may be the other qb. ryan finley is hitting 72% of his passes w/9 td's and 0 turnovers. matter of fact state has had 0 turnovers in their 4 game win streak, and i don't think the cards' pass d is all that great. north carolina state
7 OCTOBER 17
2. (4-1) #21 NOTRE DAME -15.5 AT (1-4) NORTH CAROLINA
irish have impressively flexed their muscles w/3 straight blowouts since the 20-19 loss to uga. unc got beat up by ga tech last week giving up 433 rushing yds in a 33-7 loss. heels also are beat up; 15 players out due to injuries and/or suspension, another half dozen questionable for saturday. but nd's top 3 rb's are also questionable for the game. no doubt who the better team is, but unc has only lost 2 of their last 32 games by 16+ pts. i'm way behind so i'll take a flyer they keep this one closer. north carolina.
3. (5-0) #4 PENN STATE -14 AT (2-2) NORTHWESTERN
wildcats go from a physical game in madison to hosting the powerful nitts. nu played uw tough, but psu has much more offensive firepower. one thing that would concern me with the favorite is that, tho they put up 45 vs indiana last week, it was on only 370 yds of total offense. iu did a nice job vs barkley and the 'cats are better defensively. psu's big play potential scares me but n'western is 14-4 ats as +7/more home dogs off a loss, and psu is 3-10-1 ats vs teams allowing 26/less per game. plus even tho they have a bye next week, the nitts may be looking ahead to michigan. another flyer on northwestern to stay under the number.
4. (3-1) MICHIGAN STATE +10.5 AT (4-0) #7 MICHIGAN
maybe the single most amazing stat on this week's game slate is that sparty has covered 9 straight in this series and is 7-2 su lately. the most impressive may be um holding each of its 4 opponents so far this yr to season low total yds on offense. everything on paper points to the ugly helmets; off a bye, d playing lights out, backup qb comes in and sparks the offense to a 28-10 win at purdue, and msu making its 1st road trip off physical games vs notre dame/iowa. but i'm still not convinced michigan's offense is ready to click, sparty's d is at least as good as uf's which gave the wolverines fits, msu is 9-1 ats w/big 10 revenge, 5-1 as big 10 dogs of 10+, and sparty is 17-2-1 ats as dogs vs a team off a su/ats win. michigan state.
5. (3-2) STANFORD -6.5 AT (4-0) #20 UTAH
stanford's d has certainly taken a step or 2 back from previous years as the 3-2 record shows. so why are the trees still a nearly td favorite on the road vs the undefeated utes? maybe because rb bryce love already is over 1000 yds rushing for the season (301 last week at asu) and is averaging 11/carry. plus the cardinal has played a much tougher schedule (rice, usc, san diego st, ucla, asu as opposed to north dakota, byu, san jose st, arizona). both starting qbs are hurting and may give way to back ups (edge stanford) plus the trees are an impressive 22-12 ats as road chalk. stanford.
6. (1-3) AIR FORCE +7.5 AT (4-0) NAVY
worst start for the falcons in 5 yrs, tho they are still good running the ball (275/game). problem is, the middies are better, much better (try 400 yds/game). navy has revenge from last yr's upset loss to afa, they've dominated the series lately (11-3 ats). su winner of this game has won the last 20 commander in chief trophies, and i think the swabbies make it 21. u.s. naval academy.
7. (5-0) #11 WASHINGTON STATE +2.5 AT (4-1) OREGON
simple question... are the cougars too hungover from the usc win to stay focused? ducks have begun to show signs of life but last week's cal win was costly; qb justin herbert (broken collarbone), backup qb taylor alie (concussion), rb royce freeman (arm injury). and yet uo is still favored over a team who's beaten them 2 straight years. hm. this is the 1st road game for wsu after 5 home wins, and teams are just 7-16 ats the week after beating sc lately, but i think qb luke falk will continue to shine. washington state.
8. (3-2) LSU +3.5 AT (3-1) #21 FLORIDA
have to admit i laughed out loud when i found out that this week was uf's homecoming. bet that's not happened to lsu in quite a while. gators keep finding ways to win, while the tigers have looked awful the last 3 weeks. but i'm still skeptical about florida's offense (they're being outgained by 23 yds/game this yr) while lsu has actually outgained foes by 99/game. i like the tigers' defensive secondary, last week's loss vs troy gives me some extra point value this week, and (cfb nerd stat alert) lsu is 15-4-1 ats as a dog off a su favorite loss. won't be able to watch this one but i'll be paying attention, for entertainment purposes only, of course. louisiana state.
9. (4-0) #9 WISCONSIN -11.5 AT (3-2) NEBRASKA
did you know there's such a thing as the freedom trophy? i didn't, but the big 10 loves trophy games (paul bunyon for um-msu, for example) and it's on the line in lincoln. unl allowed 78 pts in their 1st 2 games, but just 44 in the last 3. badgers have only given up 54 total in 4 games. this frosh rb for uw (taylor) has been outstanding, but it still figures to be a low scoring game. and a road fave giving up double digits in that kind of scenario isn't too enticing. not a fan of the husker qb who throws way too many picks, but this matchup has been decided by 2 and 6 pts the last 2 yrs. now i'm getting 11+? unl is 5-1 ats as +5/more big 10 home dogs, and 5-1 ats w/big 10 revenge as a dog. nebraska.
10. (3-0) #13 MIAMI -3 AT (1-2) FLORIDA STATE
one of the more intriguing, tougher to call games imho this week. noles could easily be 0-3 this week after slipping by wake forest. canes have impressed beating toledo and duke the last 2 weeks. fsu has won 7 straight in the series, they're 14-3 su the last 17 times they played an undefeated opponent, and the last 5 times they've been a dog vs the u, the noles have covered/won all 5. the eyeball test favor miami; their d has improved and looked good vs the dukies, and the noles have had some serious issues protecting blackmon (replaced francois at qb), allowing 9 sacks the last 2 weeks. do i get extra points if i predict a push? lol. miami is 5-1 ats lately as road chalk, but the dog in this series is 10-3 ats. a shaky nod to florida state.
11. (2-2) ARKANSAS -2.5 AT (3-2) SOUTH CAROLINA
hogs have looked good vs nobodies (fla a&m, new mex. st) and bad vs somebodies (texas a&m, tcu). so i'm struggling to see why they're favored in columbia. razorbacks are just 6-16 ats as sec road chalk. gamecocks fell apart in the 4th qtr last week vs the aggies, giving up 2 tds to lose 24-17, allowing 7 sacks and being outrushed 237-23 (maybe that's why...). thought i saw where 2 starting o-linemen, and lb for usc-e who didn't play last week should be back saturday but wr deebo samuel is gone and that hurts. still i like qb jake bentley better than arkansas' rush-heavy attack. south carolina.
12. (3-1) #23 WEST VIRGINIA +13.5 AT (4-0) #9 TCU
would love to see the mountaineers pull off a surprise in ft worth but i don't see it. frogs have great special teams, offense and defense (wvu has only a great offense). they're 10-2 ats off a bye week, wvu is now 0-5 ats lately getting pts on the road. 2 weeks ago the 'eers gave up 367 rush yds to kansas. KANSAS! plus tcu is 20-7 ats w/big 12 revenge (lost 34-10 in morgantown in '16). texas christian.
13. (4-1) SOUTHERN METHODIST +6.5 AT (3-1) HOUSTON
last yr smu pulled off a huge upset here, beating the cougars 38-16 as +23 home dogs (a 55 pt line win... don't see that every day). mustangs hung around at tcu before losing 56-36 3 weeks ago, but overall houston has played a much tougher schedule. cougs are just 4-10-1 ats as home chalk, while smu is on a 4-1-1 ats roll as road dogs, but that revenge factor + more tested track record carries the day for me. still impressed by what chad morris is doing at smu, but i'll take houston.
14. (2-2) ARIZONA +7 AT (3-2) COLORADO
cu is 5-2 ats as pac 12 favorites, while ua is just 4-8 ats as pac 12 dogs lately. but the visitor in this series has covered the last 5. arizona.
15. (2-2) PURDUE -4 AT (3-1) MINNESOTA
boilers come in off a bye week. you wonder how the death of former coach joe tiller may affect the team, positive or negative. 2 good young coaches here in jeff brohm and p.j. fleck. gophers opened as -1.5 here, and with the line moving 6 pts, plus minny being 14-0-1 ats as big 10 dogs of +4/more... minnesota.
16. (3-1) MARYLAND +31.5 AT #10 (4-1) OHIO STATE
d.j. durkin is the latest guy from ne ohio (boardman, near youngstown) to rise to cfb head coach. the terps have 2 nice road wins (at texas, at minnesota) wrapped around a blowout home loss to a good ucf team. no question who's the better team here but the bucks are just 6-13 ats lately as home chalk and 8-13 ats as a big (20+) favorite. even tho the terps now have a 3rd stringer at qb... a 28 pt homecoming win will have to do. maryland
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