1. 11/4 - #19 (6-2) LSU +21.5 AT #1 ALABAMA (8-0)
tigers are 9-5 ats as road dogs since '14, but 1-9 ats as road dogs off a 10+ win. tide is 6-2 ats lately as sec home chalk, 4-0 su/ats the last 4 in this series. but in the last decade the line in this series has not been above 7.5 but once, and the last time the line was this big (alabama -24 in 1993), guess who not just covered but won? that said, the tigers are just 2-10 ats when scoring less than 20, and they haven't scored more than 17 on alabama since 2010. alabama is 4-1 ats off a bye week, lsu is 5-1 ats as +15/more. tigers have been outgained in just one game this year, and teams with that record getting points usually do well. louisiana state.
2. 11/4 - #3 (7-1) OHIO STATE -16.5 AT IOWA (5-3)
hawkeyes come in off rivalry win vs minnesota to hold onto floyd of rosedale, tosu comes in off a legendary comeback win over #2 psu to hold onto cfb playoff hopes. hawks are 11-0 ats as +6/more vs .750/better opponents. edge-iowa. bucks are 16-2-1 ats after playing the nitts, tho. hm. visitor is 4-1-1 ats in the series of late, but iowa is 10-2 ats as big 10 home dogs +7/more. but i think the bucks' pushing the nitts around everywhere but the scoreboard is proof... ohio state.
3. 11/4 - #23 (6-2) ARIZONA +7 AT #17 USC (7-2)
'cats have won 4 straight, 3 as underdogs. ua got pounded by the trojans 48-14 in tuscon last yr, but is 5-1 ats at the coliseum. usc righted the ship somewhat, blowing out asu 49-14 but they're 0-6 ats as chalk of 10/less off a 10+ win. and 'zona has put up 45+ 4 straight weeks. love offenses like that getting points, especially the way tate is playing at qb. arizona.
4. 11/4 - #8 (7-1) OKLAHOMA +3 AT #11 OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1)
not necessarily a big 12 elimination game, but certainly a cfb playoff one. sooners struggled for a month before pulling away from texas tech last week. cowboys struggled to put away the red raiders, but buried a baylor team who played ou down to the final play. sooners 10-2 su/8-3-1 ats in the rivalry since '05, and this anderson kid at rb who had a pretty scary neck injury last year has looked good the last couple weeks. add 2 real good qb's and you have a shootout going down to the final possession, but ou has won 12 straight big 12 road games, 10-1 ats as dogs off a win, and they qualify as a dog who outgained every opponent so far this year. oklahoma.
5. 11/4 - #6 (7-1) CLEMSON -7.5 AT #20 NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-2)
a yr ago the wolfpack had a chip shot fg to upset clemson, but missed it and lost in ot. last week the pack got manhandled by notre dame. kelly bryant looked pretty healthy at qb for the tigers in their win over ga tech. but cu is just 7-11 ats as road chalk since '14. nc state is only 4-7 ats as home dogs, but 6-1-1 ats lately when getting 7+ at home. rb nyheim hines is a key, and he got hurt early vs the irish. he's practiced this week, and i'll roll the dice that he's ok. north carolina state.
6. 11/4 - #15 (7-0) CENTRAL FLORIDA -14 AT SMU (6-2)
this milton kid at qb for ucf might be the most improved passer in the country, hitting on 73% of his passes for 19 tds and just 3 picks. combine that w/243 yds/game rushing and the knights are tough to stop, especially vs a mustang defense who can't stop the run (253 yds/game the last 3). ucf is 7-0 for the 1st time in school history, but... head coach scott frost is awaiting the birth of his 1st child, he's been talked about for high profiled positions in lincoln, gainesville and knoxville, plus (cfb nerd stat alert) unbeaten road favorites after week 5, off a 10+ win are 15-35-1 ats vs opponents off a win. upset warning... southern methodist.
7. 11/4 - (6-2) ARMY +7 AT AIR FORCE (4-4)
flacons shocked colorado state 42-28 as a +17 dog last week, rushing for 413 yds. the cadets enter off a bye week. air force has covered just 1 of the last 5 games vs fbs foes, army has revenge from a 31-12 loss a year ago, and runs the ball almost as well as the flyboys. army.
8. 11/4 – (5-3) NORTHWESTERN +1.5 AT NEBRASKA (4-4)
wildcats come in off back/back ot wins over iowa and sparty. huskers got a last second comeback win at purdue. visitor has covered/won 5 of the last 6 in this series. n'western beat msu despite being outgained by 130 yds in regulation, while nebraska outgained the boilers by 100+. i wonder about the cumulative effect of playing 4 ot's the last 2 weeks. nebraska.
9. 11/4 - #16 (6-2) AUBURN -15 AT TEXAS A&M (5-3)
war eagle in off a bye week, the aggies off 2 pretty subpar performances, especially on offense. 4 straight upsets in this series (a&m won 29-16 in '16), which should diminish any tigers looking ahead to georgia next week. at least you'd think that. but auburn has given up 30 sacks so far this season. that's a lot. aggies are 15-4 su at home off a loss, and 13-3 ats getting 7+ at kyle field. 15 is too much. texas agriculture and mining.
10. 11/4 - #7 (7-1) PENN STATE -7.5 AT #24 MICHIGAN STATE (6-2)
so, how do the nitts respond after such a tough loss? since 2013 psu is 4-8-1 ats as road favorites. sparty attempting to bounce back from a 3ot defeat to n'western. msu is holding big 10 opponents to 73 yds rushing/game, 4-0 ats lately getting pts at home and 11-1 ats when playing w/revenge (lost 45-12 last yr). not to mention (cfb nerd stat alert #2) they are 10-0 ats after allowing 38 pts. plus (alert #3) conference chalk -7+ off their 1st loss who scored 28+ in the loss are 2-18 ats since 1980. but you probably already knew that.
michigan state.
11. 11/4 - #18 (6-2) STANFORD +2.5 AT #25 WASHINGTON STATE (7-2)
can stanford find their love? as in bryce love? the rb missed last week and the trees nearly got clipped at oregon state. meanwhile wsu qb luke falk actually got benched for poor play, and his backup tossed 4 picks in the loss at arizona where the cougar d gave up 310 yds on the ground. w/love averaging 10/carry and 1300+ total so far this year? that's a bad combo. cardinal is 6-0 ats on the road w/revenge, too. stanford.
12. 11/4 - (4-4) TEXAS +6.5 AT #10 TCU (7-1)
tcu is another team facing that scenario off loss #1 of the season. horns head coach tom herman likes getting points; as a head coach he's 8-0 ats as an underdog, w/5 outright upset wins. that's strong. the frogs meanwhile are just 3-9-1 ats as home chalk. ut also has revenge (31-9 loss last yr) as motivation. 2 strong defenses here. texas.
13. 11/4 - #13 (7-1) VIRGINIA TECH -2.5 AT #9 MIAMI (7-0)
maybe the most important game of the wknd no one's noticing. both have legit acc and cfb playoff aspirations. gobblers have taken 9 of the last 14 su vs the canes. but tech is a subpar 7-12 ats since '13 as road favorites. 4 of miami's wins have been by 8/less. great matchup between a very good hokie d and an efficient hurricane offense. u of miami.
14. 11/4 - #14 (6-2) IOWA STATE +2.5 AT WEST VIRGINIA (5-3)
can the cyclones pull off a 4th outright upset win? isu has a top 15 defense, but wvu put up 39 on a better (imho) pass d from oklahoma state only to lose 50-29 as qb will grier threw 4 picks. i think grier can, and will, be more effective thru the air. 'eers are 8-5 ats as home favorites. iowa state controls their big 12 destiny, until saturday. west virginia.
15. 11/4 - (6-2) SOUTH CAROLINA +24.5 AT #2 GEORGIA (8-0)
on paper this looks like a mismatch. no sec team has come within 25 pts of the dawgs. 5-0 ats after playing the gators. #1 in the initial playoff rankings. but... uga is 1-6 ats as -11/more vs revenge (beat usc-e 28-14 last yr), and 0-5 ats off back/back wins vs a foe off back/back wins (gamecocks have won 3 straight). plus carolina is 4-0 ats this season as road dogs. mix in georgia's date on the plains w/auburn next week, and look-ahead-itis is lingering. uga is just 2-6 ats as home chalk of -14/more, usc-e is 6-1 ats as sec dogs of 15+. the clincher is gamecock head coach will muschamp, univ of georgia class of '94. south carolina.
16. 11/2 - (6-2) NORTHERN ILLINOIS +9 AT TOLEDO (7-1)
road team is 5-0-1 ats in this series lately and the underdog has won 8 of the last 16 outright. rockets are effective/balanced on offense, but niu is allowing just 2.7 yds/rush. huskies not as good running the ball this year as usual, but this childers guy they have who's moved in as the qb has looked good. plus niu has been amazing on the road in the mac; 27-3 su/24-5-2 ats since '10, 15-0-1 ats vs opponents off a win. northern illinois.
michigan state.
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