movie? no clue.
games? based on my results so far this year... the same. lol
STANFORD +4 VS USC
back in the days before ccg's, post season rematches were relatively rare, but when they happened the revenging team almost always turned the tables. since the sec began its ccg in '92, there have been 30 same season rematches (with 7 more on tap this weekend) and the team who lost in the regular season hasn't fared as well; 12-18 su, 13-17 ats. thought that was interesting. when these 2 met in sept, the trojans rolled 42-14, ran for 307, and outgained the trees 623-342. ouch. plus sc enters off a bye, and playing well, off 4 straight wins. but... ccg teams off a bye are just 3-8 ats vs an opponent w/same season revenge, and a team who got blown out by the irish 49-14 is favored by 4 over a team who just beat nd 38-20 a week ago? plus, under david shaw, the cardinal is 11-3 ats as a dog, w/9 su wins. stanford.
MEMPHIS +7 AT UCF
memphis is +7, not -7, in this game. another revenge matchup, after ucf dominated the tigers in sept 40-13 w/a 350-75 yards edge rushing. but as i've mentioned here the last month or so, unbeaten favorites really tend to struggle to cover at the end of the season, and the knights have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games, and the 1 they covered (temple, 49-13) was thanks to 5 turnovers. ucf is 10-0 su vs memphis, and their qb milton has been outstanding. but the tigers qb ferguson has been equally as good, and arguably has better wr's. memphis is 8-3-1 ats as road dogs, and mix in all the talk about scott frost possibly leaving ucf? if there's one good thing about expanding a cfb playoff, it would be so deserving teams like central florida get a chance. that said, i think this one stays close. memphis.
TCU +7 VS OKLAHOMA
after a 6 yr sabbatical, the big 12 ccg returns. another matchup between 2 teams where one dominated the other (ou, 38-20 3 weeks ago). the horned frogs allowed 533 total yds and 200 on the ground to the sooners, both season highs for that usually stubborn d. ou is 6-1 ats off a big 12 win of 28+, 6-1 ats as big 12 chalk of 10/less, while tcu is 0-4 ats off a 21+ win. mayfield has had an incredible season on the field (37 tds, just 5 picks) and as long as he keeps his right hand gripped on the ball instead of his crotch, i don't see the sooners losing this one. oklahoma.
GEORGIA +2.5 VS. AUBURN
quite a 3 week run for war eagle, destroying uga 40-17, coasting over la-monroe, then knocking off alabama 26-14, their largest margin of victory in the series since 1969! all 3 of those games were at home, and the 2 sec wins came su as underdogs. now auburn is favorite, in atlanta, vs the dawgs. 6th trip for each to the sec ccg. the sec east rep hasn't won this game since tebow was at uf 9 years ago. in that game 3 weeks ago, those 40 pts and 488 total yds were the most georgia has allowed all season... the 46 yds uga had rushing was 220 below their season average. with johnson banged up last week for auburn, you'd think chubb/michel would have an edge in this rematch. auburn is just 13-23 ats as favorites lately, uga is 7-2 ats w/sec revenge, auburn 2-7 ats vs sec revenge, and dogs of 7/less in the sec title game are 7-4-1 ats. georgia.
FRESNO STATE +9 AT BOISE STATE
in all these revenge ccg matchups, haven't been able to find one that involves two teams who also played the previous week (fsu winning 28-17). so why is bsu hosting this game, when the 2 teams were tied at 7-1 in league play and the bulldogs won head to head? it's obviously due to the cfb playoff committee/past bowl committees' blatant favoritism toward ohio state.
broncos are just 2-13 ats lately as home favorites, but 9-0 ats as league chalk of 10/less. fsu is 6-2 ats as league dogs of 7+. weather could be a factor... forecast calls for rain and temps in the high 30s. ugh. slightest of edges to boise state.
MIAMI +9.5 VS CLEMSON
after 14 yrs in the acc, the canes have finally arrived at a title game. miami's offense got shut down at pitt last week (232 yds) and i'm pretty sure clemson's d is better than the panthers'. rosier's had a good year at qb, but vs major competition he's only completing 52% of his passes; again, not encouraging. miami's d has played well this year too, and they've been able to rise (and fall) to the level of their competition all season. plus here's an interesting stat; defending national champs are just 2-5 ats in ccg's the following season lately. here's another; .800+ ccg teams off a su favorite loss are 8-0 su, 5-2-1 ats, and 2-0 su/ats as dogs. hm. miami gets a backdoor cover.
OHIO STATE -6.5 VS WISCONSIN
in my opinion, that line is vegas begging for people to take the bucks, figuring they can win by 7. pretty sneaky. tons of folks trying to draw parallels to 2014, but i can confirm that this tosu version is not as talented as that team was. and an undefeated team getting points is very attractive. these two teams are very similar on defense, although on paper ohio state would appear to be more dynamic on offense. plus uw qb hornibrook 13 picks this year is a concern, especially if meyer's team gets off to a quick start/lead. since 2010, the badgers are 0-5 su/1-3-1 ats vs osu. the question here is whether uw can, thanks to their good d and their clock-eating run game, keep the bucks on the bench. unbeaten teams in ccg's vs .900/less foes are 16-5 ats. plus the underdog has covered all 6 big 10 ccg's, winning 4 outright. uw is also a money-making 30-10-2 ats as dogs of 3+ when they're good (.750+). i'm on wisconsin.
NORTH TEXAS +10.5 AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC
i don't think people realize how hot fau (8 straight wins) and nt (5 straight) have been down the stretch. you wonder if lane kiffin is surveying the cfb landscape and plotting out where he might visit. he's done a great job in boca raton this yr. the host team in the cusa title game has won 5 in a row (4-1 ats). the mean green's best rb is banged up, and they're just 8-16 ats on the road, while fau is 7-2 as favorites this season. not a fan of the owls' leaky defense, but fau beat north texas 69-31 when nt was at full strength. florida atlantic.
AKRON +21 VS. TOLEDO
hard to believe that, as consistently good as the rockets have been down thru the years, this is toledo's 1st trip to the mac title game since '04. in october ut buried the zips 49-21, and today akron's qb is unlikely to play. giving 3 td's in a title game is not something i'd put $$ on, but i don't see action u having enough offense to keep this interesting. toledo.
TROY +1.5 AT ARKANSAS STATE
both these teams have just 1 loss in the sun belt; both loss to south alabama. revenge spot for the trojans, who got spanked by arkansas state 35-3 at home last yr. asu is 24-13 ats as home chalk, troy 9-1 ats as road dogs. troy.
UMASS +1 AT FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
umass started the year 0-6, but all 6 losses were by 10/less. since then they've won 4 of 5. minutemen are 5-1 ats as dogs this year, while fiu is 0-3 ats as favorites. umass.
broncos are just 2-13 ats lately as home favorites, but 9-0 ats as league chalk of 10/less. fsu is 6-2 ats as league dogs of 7+. weather could be a factor... forecast calls for rain and temps in the high 30s. ugh. slightest of edges to boise state.
