FLORIDA AT MISS ST.-7.5
uf had a dominating 47-21 win in knoxville, but that was fueled by causing 6 turnovers which generated td drives of 7, 19 and 21 yards. vols didn't punt til the middle of the 3rd qtr, so I think there's some value here, especially after m-state's loss to uk. I think the bulldogs will have the juice to bounce back off the mat, especially vs their former coach. gators are 1-9 ats their last 10 games as a dog, while msu is 4-0 ats the last 4 in this series. mississippi state.
OLE MISS AT LSU -12
again, results of the previous week (lsu sleepwalking thru la tech, the rebs struggling on the scoreboard vs kent st). tigers won 40-24 at ol'miss last year and is a strong 5-1 ats vs teams w/revenge. w/rebs giving up 500+ yds/game so far this year, I'll take lsu.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT KENTUCKY -1.5
I was in lexington most of this week for work and some golf (rain every day made that part not so hot) and uk football is actually still a big topic heading into october over hoops. unusual. wildcats have also won 4 straight over usc-e (covered 5 straight), a school record vs any sec-east foe not named vandy. they can run the ball w/snell, and their d is much improved. gamecocks are just 8-27 su on the road vs undefeated opponents. kentucky.
more later...
OHIO ST AT PENN ST +3.5
in the last 2 yrs this match up has gone down to the last seconds, despite the bucks outgaining the nitts by a combined 942-559, thanks to some opportunistic plays on special teams. tosu has won 5 of the last 6 but psu has covered 3 of the last 4. miles sanders may be a better pure runner than sequon barkley, and tosu is not anywhere near solid in the middle on d. but psu's d allowed 245 rush yds last week to illinois. illinois. lots of historical trends favoring the home team; 5-0 su/ats as unbeaten home dogs, 17-1 ats of late off back/back wins, and unbeaten home teams (who went bowling the previous yr) are 20-1 ats since 2000 vs unbeaten foes who allow 14+/game. urban meyer, on the other hand, is 14-1-1 ats as road chalk of 7/less. how good is that? alabama is 5-7 ats in its last 12 games in that scenario. both sides have strong trends and strong offenses, so you go w/who you think is better. ohio state.
MICHIGAN AT NORTHWESTERN +14
on top of having an extra week to stew over losing to duke and then akron, despite outgunning both, n'western learned this week that top rb jeremy larkin ended his football career due to a neck injury. I think that will give the 'cats some extra emotional juice. um has improved week by week since losing to the irish, but the ugly hats are just 5-12 ats as big 10 road chalk of 14/less, while nu is 3-0 ats off bye weeks the last 3 seasons. northwestern keeps this close.
STANFORD AT NOTRE DAME -5.5
22nd straight meeting between these 2. cardinal off a gift win at oregon, while the irish throttled wake forest and has revenge from losing at palo alto 38-20 in '17, a situation where they're 8-3 ats lately. Ian book looked strong at qb, and I was surprised this number isn't higher. notre dame.
OREGON AT CAL +2.5
so does uo come in deflated from that come from ahead loss, or motivated? the ducks have won 8 of 9 in this series, but cal is an unbeaten home dog off a bye; league teams in that situation are 30-6 ats since '80. california.
UTAH AT WASH ST. +1.5
cougars had a 2 td lead at half vs usc, outgained the trojans by nearly 100 yds, and still lost. not sure that explains why they are a home dog to a utah team they've beaten 3 straight times. wsu is also 11-2 ats at home vs pac 12 opponents. washington state.
USC AT ARIZONA +3
last yr au qb khalil tate rushed for 1400+. so far this yr in 4 games he's run for 31. trojans have won 14 of 16 vs 'zona and is 4-1 ats as pac 12 road chalk of 8/less. usc.
IOWA ST AT TCU -10.5
off 2 physical losses to texas/tosu, the frogs get a shot at revenge against iowa st who beat them 14-7 last yr when tcu was ranked #4. trends don't favor the home team here, whose 1-9 ats off playing the 'horns and 1-5 ats as big 12 home chalk of 7+, but they've held every opponent to season lows in total offense, and isu is worse than the last 2 opponents for sure. tcu.
WEST VIRGINIA AT TEXAS TECH +3.5
tech looked good mauling okla st 41-17 last week. wvu started slow but finished strong beating kansas st 35-6. love the season will greer is having for the 'ears, but the red raiders are 4-1 ats as big 12 home dogs of 10/less w/revenge. and (cfb nerd stat alert) home dogs off 3 straight games of scoring 40+ are 20-6 ats since 1980 (this applies to penn state as well). texas tech.
more later...
SYRACUSE AT CLEMSON -24
bizarre week down at the other death valley. kelly bryant gets benched in favor of true frosh qb trevor lawrence, and 48 hrs later bryant leaves the program and the school. that trumps the bizarre upset the 'cuse pulled last yr 27-24. tigers are 11-3 ats as home favorites w/revenge, but 1-8 ats as acc chalk of 20+. orange also has a good qb in eric dungey. syracuse stays within reach.
FSU AT LOUISVILLE +6
'ville has taken the last 2 in this series but has severe qb woes, w/2 guys throwing just 3 td's combined and 6 picks this yr. cards have only covered 5 of their last 21 games, but fsu is 0-5 ats lately the week before playing miami. 2 ugly choices... florida state.
VIRGINIA TECH AT DUKE -5
so hoops blue bloods duke and kentucky are both ranked, in football, for the 1st time together since 1957. a shocking development topped only by virginia tech losing to old dominion last week. starting qb's for both teams here are out with injuries, the blue devils are 2-6 ats w/acc revenge lately, and the gobblers are an amazing 7-0 su in games after allowing 40+ points.. virginia tech.
ARMY AT BUFFALO -8.5
must have been a cool moment in normal last week (I wanted to see it... but the army-oklahoma game was available only on some kind of pay per view web app which I didn't want to pay for), w/sooner fans giving the cadets a standing ovation after taking ou to ot before losing 28-21. buffalo may be the biggest surprise in cfb at 4-0 behind 6'7 245lb qb tyree jackson, but military schools who are 6+ dogs are 33-21-1 ats on the road vs undefeated opponents, 16-4 ats when coming off an ats win. usma holds the sooners to 21 pts in regulation and they're getting more than a td vs a mac school??? army.
