OREGON AT OHIO STATE -14
I like the over 63.5 more than the side in this one, especially if thibodeaux can't go for uo and w/all the ?? for ohio state on d. ducks still looking for their 1st win all time over the bucks, and they're just 1-5 ats as road dogs lately, 1-4 ats getting +7/more. under day, tosu is 23-0 su/14-8-1 ats in regular season games, and historically in home openers the buckeyes are 32-2 su/22-10 ats since coop's 1st year. that said, this line opened at -9.5 and has since shot up over 14. riding the public movement is usually not a good thing, add in tosu being 129th in terms of returning experience... as well as the fact that I haven't seen a home win over a ooc p-5 opponent in the shoe since '03 (ot win over nc state/phillip rivers), give me the points.
PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE +3.5
you'd think pitt would need tony dorsett and/or dan marino back on the roster to be road chalk vs a sec opponent. but the vols are 1-10 ats at home off a win of 14+, 0-13 ats as dogs +14/less off scoring 35+, 1-7 ats as ooc dogs of 3+. and they lost more talent via transfer portal (8) than most other leagues. pitt is 5-2 ats as road chalk, and w/an experienced qb in kenny pickett, I'll risk the .5 hook.
NAVY AT AIR FORCE -6.5
middies absolutely stunk up the field vs dad's alma mater (marshall) last week on the scoreboard (49-7) despite rushing for 337 and 41:00 possession time. the home team here (this game is in annapolis) has won 8 straight, covering 7 of those. navy is also 7-4-1 as home dogs, while the flyboys are just 7-17 ats as road chalk. anchors aweigh.
CALIFORNIA AT
TEXAS CHRISTIAN -10
torn on this one. cal is 8-0 ats of late as ooc road dogs of 31/less, while the frogs are just 1-4 ats as ooc home chalk, 4-11 ats off a 40+ win (0-5 ats as home favorites in that scenario). that said, after td's on their opening 2 drives last week, the bears had just 195 yds/3 pts in the loss to nevada. tcu's 45-3 win over duquesne last week would have been worse had officials/teams not agreed to shorten the 2nd half. horned frogs simply have more talent.
IOWA AT
IOWA STATE -4
the most intriguing game of the weekend, w/2 teams imho most likely to knock the buckeyes/sooners off their league title perches. vegas certainly showing its cards, w/isu as the favorite after struggling to beat northern iowa, while the hawkeyes routed a ranked indiana. I believe this is the first time in series history that both teams are in the top 25 entering the game. Iowa's won 5 straight in the series, but coach ferentz is only 7-14 ats in his career vs the cyclones, only 2-9 ats as ooc dogs of 13/less, while isu is 6-1 ats as ooc -18/less home chalk. the under has hit 14 of the last 16 between these two (total is 46 btw). home team gets quintuple revenge
COLORADO VS
TEXAS A&M -17
this game is in denver. aggies just 8-17-1 ats in ooc road openers. cu has a frosh qb who'll be going up against an a&m defense that is not exactly the northern colorado team they beat last week. texas a&m also has a frosh qb who had some struggles last week (2 picks), but I think the buffs' run defense is going to get gashed. aggies.
APPALACHIAN STATE AT MIAMI (FLA) -8
last week the canes were outclassed by alabama, and has an apparently improved sparty on tap next week. app st qb chase brice is a transfer (clemson/duke) so he's used to higher quality competition. asu is 5-2 ats of late as dogs... miami is only 3-9 ats as -7/more chalk, w/5 outright losses. the u wins, the 'eers cover.
NC STATE AT
MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5
another sec home dog going up vs the acc. which hasn't been a good matchup for the wolfpack, who are 1-8 su/2-7 ats vs sec foes. bulldogs had to rally w/3 4th qtr td's to beat la tech 35-34 last week, but they were -4 in the turnover battle. doubt that happens 2 weeks in a row.
TEXAS AT
ARKANSAS +6.5
yet another sec home dog. what is going on? I saw a lot of the 'horns 38-18 win over louisiana (ha), and didn't come away as impressed as the score might indicate. the hogs had to come from 17-7 down to beat rice, and I think they were peeking ahead. arkansas was 7-3 ats as dogs last season alone, and has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series, while texas is just 2-8 ats of late vs the teams of their future home, 11-18-1 ats in their first road game as chalk. soo-eeee
MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY -5
the dog in this series has covered 5 straight and won 4 of those games outright. mizzou rb tyler badie looked good last week vs cent michigan, running for 203/40 yds receiving w/2 td's. uk qb will levis looked good in their 45-10 win over louisiana monroe, but the 'cats are just 3-10 su in sec openers, 0-4 su at home. kentucky is better in '21 than the '20 team that lost at missouri 20-10 as -3 faves, but can a team that was outgained 421-145 in that game get both revenge and cover? nope.
WASHINGTON AT MICHIGAN -6.5
the other high profile pac 12-big 10 game. the ugly hats opened at -1.5 in this one. they're now -6.5. yes, um looked solid, especially running the ball, in dispatching western michigan, while the huskies lost 13-6 to fcs montana thanks to 5 turnovers. but the wolverines are down their best wr (ronnie bell, out of the season w/torn acl) and are still just 4-9 ats vs ooc foes the last 4+ years. unique cbf stat of the week... uw is 8-0 su the last 8 times coming off a favorite loss, while um is 1-11 ats since '98 vs pac 12 opponents, 0-7 ats when coming off a win. visitors keep this one interesting.
UAB AT GEORGIA -26.5
natural letdown spot for the dawgs after an emotional win over clemson and w/the sec opener vs south carolina up next. I know uab is in c-usa, but the blazers haven't had a losing season since 2013, and actually have some nfl talent on a d that returns 9 starters. they've covered 3 of the last 4 games where they've been +17/more. uga is 3-8 ats of late as home chalk of 26+.
SAN DIEGO STATE AT
ARIZONA – PICK
'zona has not won a game since early october... in 2019. 13 straight losses after falling 24-16 to byu in a game where they actually moved the ball some. aztecs allowed 300+ passing to woeful new mexico st last week, but still won easily. sdsu is 5-2 ats vs the pac 12 of late. I say ua students swarn the field after a win.
STANFORD AT USC -17.5
trojans the better team, but last week they led only 13-7 in the 4th qtr before a pick-6 opened the floodgates in a 30-7 win over san jose st. the cardinal struggled w/2 new db's to move the ball at all vs k-state, but they get both starting safeties back who missed last week's game. gimme the trees.
UTAH AT BYU +7
one of the more underrated rivalry games around. utes have won the last 9 in the series (6-3 ats), but last year it was fueled by 3 td's off 3 byu turnovers (2 of them pick-6's). the cougars are replacing half their starters (utah returns 19) and utah is also an impressive 6-1 ats as road chalk. my cousin vinny says take the utes.
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