WEEK 6“Forget her, I hear she only likes intellectuals.”
“So? I'm intellectual and stuff.”
“You're flunking English. That's your mother tongue, and stuff.”uh, no clue this week.
THE GAMES1. (5-0) #11 MICHIGAN STATE AT (3-2)
RUTGERS +5 (OPEN +6)
visitor has covered the last 4 in this series, but sparty is unbeaten despite it's defense being pretty giving, as in allowing 1000+ yds the last 2 weeks. even w/last week's blowout loss to the bucks, the scarlet knights are still holding opponents to 128 yds/game below their season average. upset? rutgers.
2. (4-1) MARYLAND AT (4-1) #7
OHIO STATE -21 (OPEN -21)
terps thought a home upset was in the cards over iowa (I did too-lol), but tagovailoa tossed 5 picks and lost his top wr to injury (dontay demus, who'll miss this game). the young bucks looked inconsistent on both sides of the ball at times to begin the season, but appear to be hitting stride now. in going 6-0 su in the series, tosu has averaged nearly 600 total yds/game & 58 pts. maryland is 3-9 ats as big 10 road dogs of 10+, while the buckeyes are 13-3 ats the week prior to a bye. ohio state.
3. (4-0)
WYOMING AT (4-1) AIR FORCE -6 (OPEN -2)
wyoming is 10-1 ats the last 11 in this series. but the flyboys are averaging 367 yds/game on the ground, and (cfb nerd stat #1) home teams averaging 300+ rushing in their past 3 games, off a 15+ ats win, are 15-3 ats vs league foes since '90. cowboys, though, are 9-1-1 ats off an ats loss, and have had a bye week to get ready for the falcons' option attack. shaky nod to the visitors. wyoming.
4. (2-3)
BOISE STATE AT (5-0) #10 BYU -5 (OPEN -2.5)
broncos won 7 of the 1st 9 in this series, but byu has taken the last 2 (51-13 in '20). cougars' pass d has been suspect (66% completions) and bsu's air game (306/game) has been better than the ground attack (74/game). boise is also 7-1 ats as road dogs and an amazing 21-1 su off a su favorite loss, while byu is just 1-3-1 the last 5 as home chalk. boise state.
5. (2-2)
UTAH AT (3-2) SOUTHERN CAL -3 (OPEN -3)
trojans may be off a rout at colorado, but they're a $$-losing 7-13 ats as pac-12 home chalk. the utes are 12-2 ats as road dogs, and 13-1 ats the last 14 times they've been a dog off a 4+ ats loss. utah.
6. (2-2)
TCU AT (4-1) TEXAS TECH +1.5 (OPEN +1.5)
tech is off a nice 23-20 in morgantown, while the frogs lost a 32-27 heartbreaker to texas. but the red raiders are just 1-6 ats off an ats win. texas christian.
7. (3-2)
LSU AT (5-0) #16 KENTUCKY -3 (OPEN -3)
won some shekels (shekels!!! lol) on uk's upset win over the gators last week, but they did it despite gaining only 224 yds on offense. as bad and beat up as the tigers are in '21, they're still 10-3 su/ats the last 13 vs sec east teams, while the 'cats are a woeful 1-9 su vs sec west foes not named mississippi st. plus 2-7 ats as chalk after playing uf. lsu is 17-4 ats getting points off a favorite loss. cfb nerd stat #2? 5-0 teams off a double digit ats win are just 52-80-3 ats since '80. louisiana state.
8. (5-0) #2 GEORGIA AT (4-1) #18
AUBURN +14.5 (OPEN +14.5)
dawgs also are in that nerd stat #2 scenario. no cfb team has had a more impressive start to the season (just 23 pts allowed in 5 games), but auburn is more like clemson in terms of talent than arkansas is. since 2000, war eagle is 22-6 su/20-8 ats at home vs unbeaten opponents (8-1 as a home). also, since 2000, au has gone 45-11 su at home, w/no loss by more than 16 pts. uga is 14-6 ats as road chalk and 7-1 su/ats the last 8 in the south's oldest rivalry, but bo nix has historically been good in games on the plains (20 td's, just 1 int) and I'm gambling that after back/back shutout wins georgia is due for a slightly off kilter game. they win, but auburn covers.
9. (2-3) WEST VIRGINIA AT (4-1)
BAYLOR -3 (OPEN -3)
nice matchup of wvu's stout d (allowing just 88/game rushing, w/17 sacks) vs baylor's strong o-line (238 yds/game rushing, just 3 sacks allowed). but the bears' d has been just as good, while the 'eers offense has been mediocre to date. west virginia is also just 2-5 ats the last 7 getting points on the road. baylor.
10. (5-0) #6
OKLAHOMA VS (4-1) # 21 TEXAS +3 (OPEN +5) - IN DALLAS
117th edition of the red river shootout, w/last year's game a classic (4 ot's, oklahoma winning 53-45 -3). uo has won 9 of the last 12, ut has covered 7 of the last 9 (all as a dog). sooner offense has struggled (371 yds/20 pts ave last 3 games) but their d has shined, holding foes 71 yds/game below their season average and allowing 79/game rushing. they'll need to shine vs a texas offense who's put up 557 yds/game (345 rushing) the last 3 games. cfb nerd stat #3-the sooners are 19-0 su/15-4 ats when playing off 3 straight ats losses (13-0 su/ats when vs .500+ opponents). oklahoma.
11. (5-0) #9 MICHIGAN AT (3-3)
NEBRASKA +3 (OPEN +4.5)
wolverines are another nerd stat #2 entry. for the 1st time since 1953, um has yet to trail in any of its 1st 5 games, and except for the 2nd half vs rutgers they've looked good doing it. that said, the ugly hats are 0-3 su under harbaugh in the 2nd of back/back road games. on the other side, after looking putrid in an opening loss at illinois, unl has looked better and better, going 3-2 su/5-0 ats while being in position to win all 5. huskers are also 3-0 ats as a dog off a su/ats win of late. I think this one could stay very very close. nebraska.
12. (4-1) #13
ARKANSAS AT (3-1) #17 OLE MISS -6 (OPEN -6)
the 2021 disappointment bowl, w/both coming in off blow out losses to the sec elite. last yr the hogs picked off matt corral 6 times in a 33-21 upset, and they enter this game 8-3 ats as sec road dogs of 10/less, while the rebels are 3-8 ats as sec home chalk of 10/less and 2-5 ats after playing the tide. wrong team is favored imho. arkansas.
13. (5-0) #4
PENN STATE AT (5-0) #3 IOWA -2 (OPEN -1.5)
despite the history of the rrs in dallas and the importance of that game in the big 12/playoff race, I agree w/our resident psu grad here that espn game day sure does seem to be making a futures buy on the future sec members (or maybe they just like the corn dogs and fried oreos of the texas state fair) instead of a top 5 match up in the suddenly (and seemingly) highly competitive big 10 in a venue that I think is the biggest combo of intimate and intimidating in the league. nitts are a better team on offense, the hawks better on d (holding foes 176 yds/game below their season average, 4th best in country). psu had won 6 straight in the series before last year's 41-21 loss in state college, and they're 3-0 ats of late on the road w/big 10 revenge, while iowa is 1-5 ats at home vs revenge. plus, not only does iowa also fall into the nerd stat #2 scenario as a 5-0 favorite off a 20+ ats win, 5-0 dogs off a double digit win (like psu) are 35-17 ats since 1980. during that same time frame, 5-0 dogs are 14-6 ats when playing 5-0 favorites. pennsylvania commonwealth.
14. (4-1) #14
NOTRE DAME AT (3-1) VIRGINIA TECH +1 (OPEN +1)
the last 8 times the gobblers have played off a bye, they've lost all 8 and covered just 2. the irish are 4-1 su/5-0 ats off their 1st loss of a season lately, and the home team is 0-3 ats of late. nd is struggling still on offense, and may have a qb controversy when backup pyne came in last week vs uc and provided a spark. but they've also played the much tougher schedule, and I don't see va tech being the better team on offense, defense or (unusual here) special teams. notre dame.
15. (5-0) #1 ALABAMA AT (3-2)
TEXAS A&M +17.5 (OPEN +14.5)
remember way way back in '12? the aggies knocked off alabama in their 1st matchup as sec foes. since then, the world returned to spinning normally on its axis, w/the tide now winning the last 8. a&m lost big (by 28 & 19) on the scoreboard in the last 2 but were actually competitive in the stats. but in the last 2 weeks, they haven't even topped 300 total yds in losses to arkansas and mississippi st, while allowing nearly 450 in each. alabama buried ol' miss early in its 42-21 win, holding the rebels 344 yds under their season average and topping 30 pts for a 31st straight game, 1 away from the all time ncaa record I believe. I'm also guessing that most here will be on the tide, who also fall under nerd stat #2 as a 5-0 chalk. mix in the fact that 5-0 defending national champs are 6-10-1 ats as road favorites of late, and jimbo fisher being 6-1 su in his career off back/back losses plus 4-0 ats getting 10+ vs opponents off a su/ats win, I'm wondering if there's back door potential here. it could happen.
. texas a&m.
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+14.5
. texas a&m.
