WEEK 7“Why are you crying? And why are you wearing that old dress?”
“Because I just heard a song on the radio that reminded me of the way we were.”
“What was it?”
"The Way We Were." uh, the way we were part 2?
THE GAMES1. (5-0) #24
SAN DIEGO STATE AT (3-3) SAN JOSE STATE +8 (OPEN +8)
in '20 the spartans broke a 7 game losing streak to the aztecs w/a 28-17 upset and has covered 3 straight as home dogs. that said, their qb is questionable, which can also be said for an offense that has topped 17 points just twice so far this yr. a couple weeks ago they allowed 8 qb sacks in a game, not good when san diego st brings a d who has 18 sacks on the season. add in the aztecs' strong run game (251/game) and that has me going against my typical trend... gonna give points on the road in a week night prime time game. san diego st.
2. (4-1) PITTSBURGH AT (3-2)
VIRGINIA TECH +5 (OPEN -1)
both are unbeaten in the acc coastal. pitt has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series, and romped 47-14 vs the hokies in '20. I bet not many of us knew that the panthers are #1 in ppg (52... surprised me), and their qb kenny pickett is having a fantastic season, but they're also just 2-5 ats off a 14+ acc win, 1-4 ats vs opponents off a su favorite loss (va tech's heartbreaker to the irish). plus the gobblers are a homecoming dog off 3 straight ats losses and 7-1 ats as a dog w/revenge off a su/ats loss. I like that combo. virginia tech.
3. (6-0) #10 MICHIGAN STATE AT (2-3)
INDIANA +4.5 (OPEN +3)
hoosiers have covered the last 2 vs msu, including a 24-0 shutout in east lansing last yr. like tech above, iu is another home dog off 3 straight ats losses, and they've played a much tougher schedule (losses are to iowa, cincy, psu) than sparty, who's yet to play an opponent w/a winning record. iu is also off a bye (4-0 ats the last 4 off a break), while state is playing it's 7th straight week. don't like the uncertain status of iu qb michael penix, but I don't like a msu defense allowing 420 yds/game more. upset alert. indiana.
4. (4-1) #22 NORTH CAROLINA STATE AT (4-1)
BOSTON COLLEGE +3 (OPEN +2)
the wolfpack beat clemson this year, you could argue that bc should have beat the tigers too. nc state is 0-6 ats as road chalk of late, 1-5 ats off a ooc win. the eagles are 6-1 ats off a bye vs acc foes, 9-1-1 ats as acc home dogs and have covered 4 straight in the series. 2 good defenses, I'll take the home dog. boston college.
5. (5-1)
AIR FORCE AT (3-3) BOISE STATE -5 (OPEN -5)
boise is off a 26-17 upset win at byu. but that's a little misleading. they were outgained by 100+ yds, getting the win thanks to 4 cougar turnovers. the broncos are 0-5 ats as chalk after beating byu, and their run defense has been a sieve in '21, not good vs a flyboy ground attack averaging 376 the last 4 games. plus the falcons are 11-4-1 ats getting pts on the road the last 6 yrs. air force.
6. (5-1) #18
ARIZONA STATE AT (3-2) UTAH – PICK (OPEN +2)
been an awful year off the field for utah, who's seen 2 players die in shootings recently. utes have won 3 of the last 5 in the series, and is 11-5 ats in pac 12 games of late, but they're also just 4-9 su/ats off an upset win (beat usc at the coliseum last week). asu has outgained all 6 opponents so far this year, and is 12-4 ats the last 16 times the sun devils were not favored in the game. arizona state.
7. (4-2)
FRESNO STATE AT (4-1) WYOMING +3.5 (OPEN +3)
visitor in this series has won/covered 3 of the last 4, and fresno is one of only 10 teams who've outgained all its opponents so far in '21 (by nearly 200 yds/game on average). cowboys are 10-4 ats as home dogs the last 5 yrs. bulldogs have played a much tougher schedule and is still peeved at being upset by hawaii 2 weeks ago. fresno state.
8. (5-1) #19 BYU AT (5-1)
BAYLOR -6 (OPEN +1.5)
after losing to boise st last week, byu needs to win out to still have a shot at a new year's 6 bowl. this is the bears' last ooc game before 5 big 12 matchups where they are still very much in the running for a title. byu is 7-2 ats as a dog vs power 5 foes. baylor looked good blowing out wvu 45-20, and they're 8-3 ats as ooc home chalk, 21-9 ats at home off a su win. an underrated matchup. slight lean to baylor.
9. (5-0) #12
OKLAHOMA STATE AT (4-2) #25 TEXAS -5.5 (OPEN -5)
tough spot for the horns, who put up 38 points in the 1st half of the red river shootout, then just 3 in 28:00+ the 2nd half on their way to a crushing 55-48 loss. texas is just 1-6 ats as big 12 home faves of 8/less. cowboys have their best defense in ages (they'll need it vs the longhorn run game) and is 4-1 ats as a road dog the last 3 yrs. oklahoma state.
10. (3-2)
PURDUE AT (6-0) #2 IOWA -12 (OPEN -11)
hawks knew they were going up against a quality defense in psu, but the boilers aren't far behind (allowing just 15 ppg). letdown potential after the high profile win over the nitts for iowa in a game where the visitor is 10-1 ats/7-4 su, the dog is 5-1 ats of late, purdue as a road dog the last 8 years is an amazing 18-5 ats, and (cfb nerd stat #1) the hawkeyes are just 2-7-1 ats as big 10 chalk after a win over an undefeated opponent. purdue.
11. (6-0) #11
KENTUCKY AT (6-0) #1 GEORGIA -24 (OPEN -24.5)
6 games in, the #1 dawgs have still allowed just 2 offensive td's. ridiculous. that said, uk is 6-2 ats as a dog of 14+, 6-1 ats vs unbeaten sec foes, and qb will levis gives the 'cats a 2 dimensional threat that uga really hasn't seen yet this year. that said, they are a run-first offense, and with georgia allowing just 67 rush yds/game, levis will need to produce w/his arm to give them a shot. shaky nod to the 6-0 underdog. kentucky.
12. (4-2) #20 FLORIDA AT (3-3)
LSU +10.5 (OPEN +3.5)
just unreal to me that, less than 2 yrs after a dominating national title, the tigers are double digit dogs at home. to anyone. lsu looked listless last week in lexington (my alliteration for the week). but a yr ago they were +23 in gainesville when, thx to a thrown shoe, they beat the gators 37-34. so uf has revenge, lsu is decimated injury-wise (the latest... wr kayshon boutte... out for the season) and the tigers are a shocking 2-16-2 ats in their last 20 home losses as a dog. ugh. gators don't exactly have a great track record in this series (3-7-1 ats of late, 0-6 ats as a favorite when lsu is off a su/ats loss) and they do have uga up next after a bye week. uf is also 3-8 ats of late as road chalk overall. I'm holding my nose... lousiana state.
13. (4-1) #13 MISSISSIPPI AT (4-2)
TENNESSEE +3 (OPEN +4)
lane kiffin's 1st game back in knoxville, in the 1st game between these 2 in 7 yrs. somehow the rebels beat arkansas despite giving up 51 points and 676 (676!!) total yards. now they're road chalk (1-6 ats the last 7 giving points away from oxford) to a vols team that averages 250+/game on the ground. bad defenses don't travel well. wrong team favored imho. tennessee.
14. (3-2) IOWA STATE AT (3-2)
KANSAS STATE +6.5 (OPEN +4)
both enter off a bye week, which was especially good for ksu as their qb skylar thompson continues to heal up. isu qb brock purdy has been solid, but well below expectations. cyclones' defense is holding opponents 163 yds below their season average (4th best in fbs) and an outstanding 10-2 ats vs foes off a bye. but... the wildcats are a shiny 6-1 ats as home dogs, 4-0 ats as home dogs w/revenge (they lost to isu 45-0 last yr) and (cfb nerd stat #2) game 6 teams who are off a bye, after winning their first 3 games then losing their next 2, are 15-4 ats. I don't know why. lol. kansas state.
15. (4-2) AUBURN AT (4-2) #17
ARKANSAS -3.5 (OPEN -3)
tigers have won 7 of the last 8 in this series, and have been favorites vs the hogs 24 of the last 30 matchups. so I'm little surprised at the number here, if nothing else than because war eagle actually put up a legitimate offensive td vs georgia last week.
au is also 5-1 ats on the sec road vs revenge lately. been fun seeing arkansas' resurgence but in the last 2 weeks they've allowed 89 points. that said, they've also been hardened by a tougher schedule. arkansas.
16. (3-2) TCU AT (6-0) #4
OKLAHOMA -10.5 (OPEN -12)
5 of the sooners' 6 wins have come by 7 pts/less so far this year. you can look at that and say ou is underperforming, and that may be true. but over the course of a season, that knack of winning close games builds confidence over the course of the season, something we all know that oklahoma as a program has historically lacked down thru the years (hahahahahahahaha). lincoln riley pulled the trigger on a qb switch w/caleb williams for spencer rattler that worked magic in the texas comeback win. now they come up vs a tcu program who used to be scrappy tough on defense, but is allowing 5 1/2 yards/carry. frogs are also 0-6 su/1-5 ats the last 6 in this series, and just 2-4 ats getting 10+ vs big 12 opponents. red river letdown potential? last 3 years ou is 3-0 su/3-0 ats post texas. oklahoma.
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