WEEK 8“Honestly! Me mind boggles at the very idea, a grown man and you haven't shaved with a safety razor.”
“It's not my fault. I come from a long line of electricians.”movie quote... no clue.
WEDNESDAY 20OCT211. (6-0) #14 COASTAL CAROLINA AT (4-2)
APPALACHIAN STATE +4 (OPEN +3).
winthe chanticleers have certainly passed the look test in my eyes the couple times I've seen them so far this year in terms of team size/speed. the last 3 weeks they've outscored their opponents 164-29, outgaining them by a combined 1166 yds. appy st meanwhile comes off a 41-14 pounding from louisiana, but will still easily be the stiffest competition ccu has faced this season. plus the mountaineers have revenge from a 34-23 loss in '20 where asu outgained ccu but gave up 2 turnovers including a game-clinching pick 6. it's the 1st time in 4 yrs that appy st is a home dog, and (cfb nerd stat alert #1) unbeaten road chalk off a bye in week 6/beyond are just 3-19 ats vs revengers off a loss. appalachian state.
SATURDAY 23OCT212. (4-2)
CLEMSON AT (5-1) #23 PITTSBURGH -3.5 (OPEN +3)
this is the first time since 2016 that the tigers are an acc underdog, and the first time since '14 they're getting points on the acc road. a year ago they beat pitt 52-17, and now they're getting 3.5? panthers are just 4-6 ats as home chalk of late and clemson is 15-4 ats under swinney as dogs vs .833/better opponents. I'll take the 1/2 point hook. clemson.
3. (4-2)
MARYLAND AT (4-2) MINNESOTA -5 (OPEN -4)
after 2 outright wins as a dog, the gophers are giving 5 to the terps, in off a bye after blow out losses to iowa and tosu. minnesota is 4-7 ats vs big 10 foes as home chalk the last 5+ yrs. maryland is 3-9 ats as road dogs, 1-10 ats away off a bye. ugh. that said, they hung 45 on the oarsmen a year ago, and this season minnesota is still w/o their top 2 rb's. maryland.
4. (3-3)
GEORGIA TECH AT (5-2) VIRGINIA -7 (OPEN -8)
visitor has covered the last 2 in this series, but the home team is 19-4-1 su/16-7-1 ats since the '90's. uva's offense has started a 3 game win streak, and has put up 500+ in total yds 6 times this year. but tech's d has been solid vs all but pitt so far. georgia tech.
5. (5-1)
NORTH CAROLINA STATE AT (2-4) MIAMI (FL) +3 (OPEN -2)
so far this yr the canes have a rout of central connecticut st and a 25-23 win over appy st. wolfpack is better on both sides of the ball (top 10 d, going up against a frosh qb in this one) plus has revenge from a 44-41 loss in '20 (nc state is 5-1 in acc revengers). yeah this is the first time they've been favored on the road vs miami in 40+ years, but it's warranted imho. north carolina state.
6. (6-0) #16 WAKE FOREST AT (4-2)
ARMY +3.5 (OPEN +3)
last time these 2 met in '16, army pulled off a 21-13 upset. that follows a $$-making trend of the service academies covering as underdogs since 1980, to the tune of 125-80-1 ats. wake is one of the feel-good stories so far in this cfb season, but they've rarely felt good (2-8 ats) as chalk vs the military schools. army is 11-4 ats getting points off back/back losses, plus (cfb nerd stat alert #2) 5-0/better road chalk off a bye week are just 17-30 ats since '97. the cadets have the #2 rushing offense in the country, the demon deacons allow 171/game on the ground. upset alert? army.
7. (4-2) UTAH AT (4-2)
OREGON STATE +3 (OPEN +4)
utes are 3-0 and in the driver's seat in the pac 12 south, but they're only 11-17 ats as road chalk vs .500+ foes lately. beavers are just 5-10 ats as home dogs, but coming in off a bye. oregon state.
8. (5-1) #10
OREGON AT (5-2) UCLA -2.5 (OPEN +3)
ducks are 0-5 ats this year giving pts, 1-0 ats getting points, though I can't recall the game, and 6-1 ats lately vs .500+ opponents. bruins are just 3-7 ats since '19 as home favorites. oregon.
9. (6-0) #8
OKLAHOMA STATE AT (4-2) IOWA STATE -7 (OPEN -4.5)
cowboys' qb spenser sanders came back from injury in last week's win over texas, while osu's defense has been healthy all season. cyclones are 7-13 su vs unbeaten opponents, 0-4 ats as chalk in those games. the last 7 times okla st has been unbeaten on the road, they covered all 7 and won 6 outright. plus there's this cfb nerd stat nugget; game 7 undefeated road dogs off a su/ats win are 9-2 su/10-1 ats vs foes off a 10+ win. cowboys have won 8 of the last 9 in the series, the visitor is 5-1 ats the last 6, and osu is 7-1 ats in their last 8 games as a road dog. oklahoma state.
10. (4-3)
LSU AT (5-1) #12 OLE MISS -9.5 (OPEN -12)
rebel qb matt corral is doubtful for this one. you wonder whether the tigers will give up on their fired head coach or circle the wagons for orgeron, who's 5-0 su in this series. tyrion Davis-price ran for 287 on a gator defense that is significantly more talented than the ol'miss d they'll face saturday. both teams are beat up, but w/the rebels just 3-9 ats as sec home chalk of 10/less, this is just too many points to give. louisiana state.
11. (6-0) #22
SAN DIEGO STATE AT (6-1) AIR FORCE -3.5 (OPEN -4)
falcons lead the nation in rushing (336/game). aztecs are the best at stopping the run (61 yds/game). there's some question where san diego st will find enough offense vs a decent air force d (289/game). but I like unbeaten teams getting points this time of year, based on trends like this; since 1980, 6-0 underdogs who allow less than 18 pts/game are 15-1-1 ats. san diego state.
12. (3-3)
SOUTHERN CAL AT (5-1) #13 NOTRE DAME -6.5 (OPEN -5)
last year this great intersectional rivalry was not held for the first time since it began in 1926. so good to see it return. both come in off byes, w/the trojans still smarting from a spanking in the coliseum from utah, the utes' 1st win in la since 1916. irish had to scrap to beat va tech in ot. nd has won 7 of the last 10 in the series, but they've been shakily inconsistent on offense in '21 and they're just 4-7 ats lately off a su win as a dog. plus usc has been great 25-6 su/21-10 ats) with rest, 4-0 ats in ooc games, 11-2 ats off a home favorite loss, 6-1 ats when getting 6+. southern california.
13. (5-1)
NEVADA AT (5-2) FRESNO STATE -3 (OPEN -1.5)
2 qb's in this one who get little national pub but plenty of looks from pro scouts (jake haener from fsu, who's tossed 20 td's in 7 games, and carson strong, who's thrown 16 td's in 6 games). nevada leads cfb w/27 sacks, is +9 in turnovers (bulldogs are -2) and is 12-6 ats as mwc dogs, 7-0 su/ats of late when getting 6/less. nevada.
14. (3-3)
KANSAS STATE AT (5-2) TEXAS TECH -1 (OPEN +1)
k-state burned me last week in losing/not covering vs iowa st, but they are still 12-6 ats as underdogs, while the red raiders are just 2-5 ats as favorites. plus tech's run defense is weak, which plays right into the wildcats' strength. and ksu has covered the last 6 games after a loss. kansas state.
15. (3-3)
WISCONSIN AT (4-2) #25 PURDUE +3 (OPEN +5)
so the boilers are ranked for the 1st time in 14 yrs, they're off a dominating upset of iowa on the road, and they're underdogs at home to badger squad that's sputtered all season? might be because uw has beaten pu 12 straight times (9-3 ats), including going 6-0 su/ats in west lafayette. wisconsin's offense has been horrid but it's defense has been stellar (226/game, #2 in country), and purdue is just 2-11 su/ats as home dogs vs teams who allow 20 pts/less per game. I'm on wisconsin.
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