WEEK 10“Are those my scissors?! Dude, I trim my nose hair with those!”
“Dude, I have been cutting my ass hair with them for the past six months.”aha!! I know this one! and the company named in the movie title has its hq here in columbus.
THE GAMES1. (4-3) ARMY AT (6-2)
AIR FORCE -2.5 (OPEN -1)
winner here takes home the commander in chief trophy (since the falcons already beat navy 23-3). cadets have won/covered 3 of the last 4 in the series, after air force had won 10 of the previous 11. no surprises here; option vs option, af's #1 run attack (318/game) vs army's #2 ground game (312/game). both also defend the run well (army allows 93/game, flyboys give up 100/game). af is 0-7 ats as faves w/revenge (army won 10-7 in '20) off a su/ats loss (2 weeks ago to san diego st 20-13), but 9-1 su/8-2 ats playing w/revenge in this series. air force
2. (8-0) #10
WAKE FOREST AT (4-4) NORTH CAROLINA -2.5, (OPEN -4)
freakin' unc cost me $$ last week, not getting a back door cover from the nd 11 in the last 1:00 in south bend. now the heels host wake in actually a non-acc game (signed a home/home contract since they are only scheduled to play each other once every 7 yrs). yeah, the demon deacons' competition has been paper thin overall, but dave clawson should still be in the running for coach of the year honors nationally w/the step up his team's taken. the last 3 games carolina has allowed 40/game, not a good sign w/wf averaging 43/game this season. home team here is 6-0 su/8-2 ats the last 10, and last year the 2 gained 1300+ yards in a 59-53 unc win. heels just 1-9 ats after scoring 35+ vs opponent off back/back su/ats wins. and I'm a fan of unbeaten underdogs. wake forest.
3. (7-2) LIBERTY AT (6-2)
MISSISSIPPI -9.5, (OPEN -15.5)
liberty coach hugh freeze returns to oxford and the scene of his ncaa crimes, catching the rebels off a 31-20 loss to auburn. this time of year sec teams usually have mercer or mcneese st on the schedule, but behind auburn qb transfer malik willis 7-2 liberty doesn't figure to be a cakewalk, especially if matt corral and 2 of his top 3 wr's are still battling injuries (hence the line moving 6 pts). both teams average 37+/game, and ol' miss has a&m on deck next week. still, liberty's played the 127th toughest schedule, the rebels have played #4. mississippi.
4. (5-3) #22 PENN STATE AT (5-3)
MARYLAND +10.5, (OPEN -11)
the playoff committee apparently wasn't impressed, but the media/coaches voters certainly appeared to commend psu's performance vs tosu, keeping them in the top 25. but I see a serious letdown alert in college park vs a terp offense that can still move the ball despite losing their top 2 wr's for the season due to injuries. maryland upset the nitts 35-19 last yr. penn state's solid defense should be enough to win despite their lack of a running attack, but head coach dennis franklin is just 7-21 ats off a su loss. maryland my maryland keeps this interesting.
5. (5-3)
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT (5-3) ARKANSAS -5, (OPEN -5)
the 5-3 team the playoff committee does like heads to hog heaven taking on the razorbacks. bulldogs are 5-2 ats as road dogs lately, and have covered 3 of the last 4 in fayetteville, but msu is 0-7 ats away off a su dog win. after a fast 4-0 start arkansas, has struggled losing 3 straight sec games. they're 8-2 ats off a bye week but just 5-15 ats lately off a su win. a year ago msu was off an upset win over lsu, outgained the hogs 400-275 but found a way to lose 21-14 to the hogs. revenge. mississippi state.
6. (7-1) #11
OKLAHOMA STATE AT (4-4) WEST VIRGINIA +3, (OPEN +3)
after seeming dead in the water wvu awakened w/upsets over tcu and iowa st and osu is just 2-9 ats lately vs opponents off 2 su/ats wins, but the cowboys have won/covered 6 straight in the series and the 'eers are just 1-10 ats as +2/more dogs w/revenge. oklahoma state.
7. (4-4)
TENNESSEE AT (6-2) #18 KENTUCKY -2, (OPEN -5)
in '20 the vols outgained uk 203-75 in the 1st half yet trailed the 'cats 17-3 because of 2 pick 6's on the way to a 34-7 loss a rare loss in a series where tennessee has won 31 of the last 34. kentucky's run game disappeared in back/back losses to georgia (understandable) and mississippi st (not as much). tennessee played ol'miss tough and was down in tuscaloosa just 31-24 in the 4th qtr. plus (cfb nerd stat) the vols have been favored in 37 of the last 41 vs the wildcats... they covered all 4 of the games where they were getting points. tennessee.
8. (4-4) TEXAS AT (5-3)
IOWA STATE -6.5, (OPEN -6)
the big 12 disappointment bowl w/2 teams whose '21 expectations were higher. 'horns have blown 4th qtr leads in 3 straight games, and the cyclones cost me $$ w/a surprising loss in morgantown. but isu is 7-0 ats off a su favorite loss, 4-0 su/ats in that role when the opponent is also off a loss, as well as 10-3 ats as home chalk of 10/less. texas' run game started the season strong but is now leaking oil, and isu's defense is still good. iowa state.
9. (8-0) #5 MICHIGAN STATE AT (5-3)
PURDUE +3, (OPEN +2.5)
once again sparty pulls a rabbit out of the hat, coming from 16 down to beat um despite being outgained 552-395, the 4th time that's happened in a game this year. can the magic continue in west lafayette? purdue has a great wr in david bell to attack a sometimes shaky state pass d, a solid front 7 on d that's capable of slowing down msu rb kenneth walker, they're 7-3 ats as home dogs, and the last 6 times michigan st has put up 30+ vs um, they've gone 1-5 ats in their next game. boiler head coach jeff brohm is 14-5 ats as a conference home dog. and here another cfb nerd stat; since 1980, road favorites who were underdogs and knocked off 5-0/better foes in their previous game, are 27-37 ats in the next game. if that next game is vs a good defense (allows 24/less), the ats record is 7-20. if it's game 7/later, it's 4-20 ats. if it's a league game, it's 3-18 ats. you just can't make this up.
. purdue.
10. (6-2) #12
AUBURN AT (6-2) #13 TEXAS A&M -4.5, (OPEN -6.5)
while we're on the subject of stats, the aggies don't handle vacations well. since '08, they're 2-16 ats off a bye, 0-10 ats as chalk of 7/less. the visiting team in this series is 7-1-1 ats since '12. the winner stays alive in the sec west, and w/a&m also just 1-10 ats off back/back su/ats wins, I think war eagle finds a way to stay close. auburn.
11. (7-1) #7 OREGON AT (4-4)
WASHINGTON +6.5, (OPEN +7)
ducks come in off an easy win over colorado, to a series they are now dominating (won 14 of last 16, 6 of 7 in seattle) where once they were the little brother. but last year uo had to come back from 14 down to beat the huskies 35-31. oregon is just 1-4 ats lately as road chalk. uw win here puts them in control of the pac 12 north. not sure if that happens but... washington.
12. (8-0) #16 TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO AT (6-2)
U TEXAS EL PASO +11.5, (OPEN +9)
trying to remember the last time there was a nationally televised cfb game from el paso that wasn't the sun bowl. what a great event for these 2 programs. miners may have been looking ahead last week, losing 28-25 to fla atlantic in a game that wasn't as close as the final score. the roadrunners have kept their qb clean this year-just 7 sacks allowed-but now face a utep d w/20 sacks this season. this time of year gets more and more challenging for unbeaten to both stay unbeaten and beat the spread. plus in fbs games this year, 34 +10/greater dogs have pulled off outright upset wins. this could be #35. texas el paso.
13. (5-3) MARSHALL AT (5-3)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC +1.5, (OPEN +1)
favorite in this series is just 1-7 ats, though the herd has actually won 7 of the 8 outright. fau's pass d is giving up just 209/game w/10 picks, and marshall qb grant wells has thrown 10 picks this year (along w/2500 yds). uh oh. the herd is also giving up 209/game rushing. uh oh. florida atlantic.
14. (4-4)
BOISE STATE AT (7-2) #25 FRESNO STATE -5, (OPEN -3)
fresno comes in off upsetting previously unbeaten san diego st, behind qb jake haener (2888 yds, 23 td's). bsu has dominated this series but is obviously down this year. but the broncos have taken care of the ball this season. the bulldogs live off turnovers (+8 last 3 games). I think fsu has a bit of a letdown and this game stays close. boise state.
15. (4-4)
SOUTHERN CAL AT (5-3) ARIZONA STATE -8.5, (OPEN -10)
here's an odd fact. I mentioned how michigan st keeps winning despite losing the stat sheet. the trojans have the opposite; they've won the total yds battle in 7 of their 8 games yet are 4-4. usc has beaten asu 5 of the last 6, and won/covered 3 straight in tempe. those facts combined w/the sun devils being a shaky 3-9 ats as home chalk... southern california