WEEK 11
“Oh, f-word me, man! That kid already spent all the money, man!”
“New 'Vette? Hardly, Dude. I'd say he's still got about $960 - $970,000 left, depending on the options.”new vette... uh, one of the fast and furious films? no clue.
THURSDAY, 11NOV
1. (5-4) NORTH CAROLINA AT (7-2) #25
PITTSBURGH -6.5, (OPEN -5)
this pick has nothing to do w/unc ruining a bet I had on wake forest last week, who blew a 45-27 lead to lose 58-55 to heels and cost me a c-note by 0.5. nothing at all. it's completely because carolina is 2-7 ats since last season on the road, plus teams off beating a 7-0/better opponent are just 1-9 ats the last 2 years when playing away the next week, plus unc is 0-5 ats in weekday games, plus they are 0-5 ats after playing the demon deacons, plus the panthers (unlike wake) have at least a semblance of a defense, plus pitt qb kenny pickett has been outstanding (29 tds, just 3 picks). so there. pittsburgh.
SATURDAY, 13NOV
2. (4-5)
WEST VIRGINIA AT (6-3) KANSAS STATE -6.5, (OPEN -6)
really like wvu in this spot. k-state is off a rivalry win over kansas, the 'eers have won/covered 4 straight in this series, and off their last 9 losses (24-3 to okla st, gaining just 133 ttl yds), they're 7-2 ats the next game. the wildcats' pass d has been leaky vs big 12 foes
3. (6-3)
MINNESOTA AT (7-2) #19 IOWA -5.5, (OPEN -7)
despite the ugly loss to the illini, the gophers still control their destiny (iowa, indiana, uw) in the 'who wants to win the' big 10 west. the hawks need help, not just for the division but for an offense that's scored just 31 pts the past 3 weeks. not a fan of favorites who've been outgained 3 straight weeks either (including by n'western). iowa is 4-0-1 ats of late in this rivalry to win floyd of rosedale, but they're only 2-6-1 ats lately vs revenge. gophers imho have the better offense and better defense, combined w/a 4-0 ats record the last 2 yrs getting points on the road. minnesota.
4. (8-1) #9
MICHIGAN AT (6-3) #23 PENN STATE – PICK, (OPEN +2)
the ugly hats methodically pummeled the hoosiers 29-7, but psu's d won't be so easily pummeled. nice matchup of um's solid pass d vs dotson, clifford and the nitt passing offense. harbaugh is just 1-8 su vs ranked opponents on the road in ann arbor, but franklin is just 13-23 su vs opponents w/better records. wolverines will be missing one of their 2 top rb's, but that's 1 more rb than psu has. michigan.
5. (5-4)
MARYLAND AT (8-1) #8 MICHIGAN STATE -13, (OPEN -14)
I mentioned last week that msu had been winning w/mirrors, especially being so soft in pass d. last week purdue threw for 526 in the 40-29 win. guess what the one thing is that the terps do well? tagovailoa actually leads the big 10 w/2755 yds, 71% completions (18 td's vs 9 int) and gained 371 yds vs a psu d much better than sparty in a misleading 31-14 loss. state is just 1-6 ats as league chalk of 7+, 2-7 ats vs big 10 revenge, maryland has covered 3 of the last 4 in the series, the visitor has covered 3 straight, and (cfb nerd stat) since 1980 7-0/better teams off their 1st loss (as a favorite) in which they scored 28+ are just 2-11 ats in their next game. the terrapins make this interesting.
6. (7-2) #21 NORTH CAROLINA STATE AT (8-1) #13
WAKE FOREST -2, (OPEN -3.5)
w/last weeks loss to unc being a non-conference game, wake still leads the wolfpack by a game in the acc atlantic, which the demon deacons can clinch w/a win here. this will be the 114th game in the series, but just the 2nd time ever that both are ranked. in the last 24 between the 2, the home team is an unbelievable 20-4 su/19-4 ats. nc state's d is allowing just 221/game thru the air, but will be missing 5 starters on that side of the ball saturday. here's a cfb nerd stat for you; since 2005, teams who lost their last game despite scoring 55+ are 7-2-1 ats in the following game if they're seeking revenge (nc state won 45-42 in '20). wake forest.
7. (9-0) #4 OKLAHOMA AT (7-2) #18
BAYLOR +5.5, (OPEN +7)
the pressure on cfb teams to maintain their unbeaten seasons often really steps up this time of year. and it's no surprise the numbers show that, especially when playing quality opponents on the road. since '80, 9-0/better teams facing .700+ road foes are 14-31 ats as chalk of 4+. off 20+ wins in their previous game, these teams are just 7-22 ats. ou is an outstanding small (8/less) road favorite (14-2 ats) and has beaten baylor 7 straight. but despite last week's shocking loss to tcu, the bears have covered 3 straight in the series and are 7-1 ats as home dogs off a loss, plus 10-2 ats in revenge games. this will be caleb williams' 1st start in a truly hostile b12 environment. close. baylor.
8. (8-1) #7
NOTRE DAME AT (6-3) VIRGINIA +5.5, (OPEN +6)
irish are very quietly in position to take advantage of any chaos above them in the rankings. nd has been good road chalk (11-4-1 ats) lately, but there's a very successful trend favoring the cavaliers. cfb home dogs off scoring 40+ in 3 straight games are a money-making 27-10 ats since 1980. normally that would be enough for me, but uva qb brennan armstrong (who's thrown for a ridiculous 3557 yds so far this yr) banged up his ribs late vs byu 2 weeks ago and his status is ??. plus virginia's defense has given up 533/game the last 4 contests. notre dame.
9. (5-4)
WASHINGTON STATE AT (8-1) #5 OREGON -14, (OPEN -16)
wsu has won 4 of the last 6 in this series, and has covered 6 straight games this season-3 straight since their coach got axed. ducks dominated washington in every aspect but the scoreboard last week, but in addition to cfb playoff pressure, uo is just 1-5 ats as pac 12 home chalk of 9+, 2-8 ats before playing utah, and 2-8 ats vs a rested opponent off a su win. plus the cougars are 7-2 ats getting 10+ on the road. washington state.
10. (6-3) CENTRAL FLORIDA AT (7-2)
SOUTHERN METHODIST -7, (OPEN -9)
ucf has won 3 straight since getting blown out by cincy. mustangs have lost 2 in a row after winning their 1st 7 games. matter of fact, smu in the last 3 years has started a collective 20-0 then finished a collective 4-8. even though the knights are not as strong as in recent years, they are still 7-0 ats as away dogs of 10/less. a big reason smu has lost their last 2, though, is due to losing their top rb, who should return saturday. southern methodist.
11. (7-2) #11
TEXAS A&M AT (7-2) #12 MISSISSIPPI +2.5, (OPEN +1)
who's the 3rd best in the sec? winner here could certainly lay claim to that title. aggies have won/covered the last 3 in this series (last yr's game cancelled due to covid). bizarrely, this is just a&m's 2nd true sec road game. they've not exactly played a murderer's row of passing offenses this year, but they've still been real good on d (9 td receptions allowed, vs 10 picks). fisher has gone 11-3 ats on the road while at college station, while the rebels are playing for a 7th straight week and qb matt corral is making due w/o his top 3 wr's and 6 other starters on offense are banged up. the last 11 times ol' miss has been a sec home dog, they've lost all 11 and covered just 2. texas agriculture and mining.
12. (9-0) #1 GEORGIA AT (5-4)
TENNESSEE +20.5, (OPEN +22)
speaking of sec offenses, last week the vols had just 13:52 of possession time, yet still put up 45 in a 3 pt win. don't think I've ever seen that before. ut has averaged 40+ the last 5 games; uga is allowing just 6.6. dawgs have won the last 4 in the series by an average of 30/game, but even as dominant as they've been this yr, it still gets tough in november for unbeatens to sustain that kind of dominance. I think georgia gives up more than 13 for the first time in '21, and wins, but tennessee gets under the number.
13. (6-3)
PURDUE AT (8-1) #6 OHIO STATE -20, (OPEN -19)
as of tonite, this line is now -21, which absolutely baffles me. no other big 10 team is even remotely close to the boilermakers' 5-8 record vs tosu since 2000 (7-3-1 ats since '02). bucks have struggled running the ball inside the red zone the last 2 weeks, having to settle for 8 fg's. at the same time ohio state's defense has improved. enough to cover by 3 td's vs purdue's efficient pass attack? buckeyes are 2-5 ats as -10+ big 10 home chalk vs .500+ foes, but 15-5-1 ats vs opponents off a su dog win. boilers are 15-5 ats as big 10 dogs. purdue.
14. (6-3)
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM AT (6-3) MARSHALL -5, (OPEN -4)
revenge game for the herd, who lost 22-13 to uab in last yr's cusa title game. blazers have been beating themselves plenty this season (10 penalties/game on average) and are 0-2 su/ats vs .500+ opponents lately. marshall is just 4-12 ats as home favorites since '18, and they're giving up 200+/game rushing (uab is averaging 195/game on the ground). alabama-birmingham.
15. (7-2)
NEVADA AT (8-1) SAN DIEGO STATE -2, (OPEN +3.5)
winner here controls their fate in the mountain west, uh, west. wolfpack have won/covered the last 3 in this series, all as an underdog. nevada has thrown for 3200 yds this yr. aztecs rely on their strong d to cover up their anemic (289 yds/game) offense. nevada
bonus pick
univ of miami -2.5 at florida st.
canes have won 4 straight in this series, and w/help still have a shot at the acc coastal. home team is just 3-12 ats of late. fsu can still make a bowl game by winning its last 3 games. this qb van dyke for miami has looked good lately (300+ passing in last 3 games) while the noles haven't topped 300 in total offense the last 2 weeks. hard not to take a home dog in this kind of rivalry, but this year the u appears significantly better. miami.