WEEK 12"I got a free tattoo. I could not believe it. The guy said, "do you want a tattoo?," opened up the side of his van and said "it's fo' free!" So I said, "sure." It's a Mexican drinking worm. It's like a Native American symbol meaning wasted."one of jodi's favorite movies. btw all the games listed below are not on saturday. air force-nevada is friday night late (10 pm in the east).
THE GAMESALL GAMES 19NOV – SATURDAY (except for #1 below, which goes friday nite)1. (7-3)
AIR FORCE AT (7-3) NEVADA -1.5 (OPEN +2)
falcons run a lot (283/game) and pass a little (112). wolfpack passes a ton (383) and runs like a turtle (13). nevada is 9-5 ats of late as home chalk; flyboys are 8-4 ats as road dogs since '17 but this is their 3rd straight non-home game. that said, air force has outgained 9 of 10 foes in '21, and I like dogs w/that track record. air force.
2. (6-4)
VIRGINIA AT (8-2) #21 PITTSBURGH -14.5, (OPEN -11)
line up because of the still uncertain status of uva qb brennan armstrong, who missed notre dame last week. panthers are a mediocre 6-7 ats as home faves since '19. cavs are 10-8 ats getting points on the road, and averaged 48/game the last 3 weeks w/armstrong. gonna take a chance that he sat out last week to play this week and make a difference. virginia.
3. (8-2) SOUTHERN METHODIST AT (10-0) #5
CINCINNATI -11.5, (OPEN -15)
bearcats have gone 4 straight w/o covering, and now face their best opponent since beating the irish. smu is 1-7 ats lately as +10/higher aac foes. w/this line now less than half what's its been the last month, I think uc's superior defense slows down smu. cincinnati.
4. (9-1) #7 MICHIGAN STATE AT (9-1) #4
OHIO STATE -19, (OPEN -18)
bucks have won 5 straight/covered 4 straight in the series, but scarlet & gray fans still remember 2015, 1998, 1974/1972 (for the aarp among us) when sparty pulled monumental upsets. interesting stat comparison; tosu's d has been so-so, but msu's d, especially vs the pass, has been so-bad. spartans' offense has been good, but tosu's has been great. turnovers? msu is +3, bucks +9. I expect mel tucker to feed kenneth walker a ton to keep that offense on the sidelines (msu runs for 200/game, but bucks average 197), and send the house at c.j. stroud to cover up his porous secondary. even tho ohio state has been horrible (0-7 ats) prior to the um game, michigan state is just 3-7 ats vs .800/better big 10 opponents. one other nugget; vs 5 common opponents, tosu is +32 pts/game and +232 yds/game, michigan st is +7 pts/game, and -32 yds/game. it's lots to lay vs a 9-1 team, but the passing game strength vs passing defense weakness is too great. ohio state.
5. (9-1) #6
MICHIGAN AT (5-5) MARYLAND +15.5, (OPEN +15)
um's issue isn't looking ahead to the game as much lately as it is recovering from playing the nitts. the ugly hats are just 2-9 ats in their next game (0-5 ats after beating psu). but the wolverines' balance on offense, and a defense not having to face the terps' top 3 wr's is too much. michigan.
6. (5-5) FLORIDA AT (5-5)
MISSOURI +8.5, (OPEN +10)
sec network was replaying uf's game vs samford earlier today, and w/under 7:00 left in the 3rd qtr the game was 42-42. compare that to 2 months ago today, when the gators gave alabama all they wanted in a 31-29 loss. hard to figure. also hard to figure the gator d giving up 44.5/game the last 4 weeks. mizzou stinks this year, but in their final home game of '21 they stay close.
7. (9-1)
LOUISIANA – LAFAYETTE AT (7-3) LIBERTY -4.5, (OPEN -4)
liberty's had 2 weeks to lick wounds from a 27-14 loss on the grove to ol' miss. they'll have trouble stopping the cajuns' run attack (234/game last 4 weeks) but they bring a better pass game. still think the wrong team is favored here. louisiana.
8. (9-1) #12 WAKE FOREST AT (7-3)
CLEMSON -4, (OPEN -4)
poor dabo. coach swinney this week was bemoaning the fact that his tigers aren't ranked, due to jealousy of their recent success. smh. they've won 3 straight heading into a game vs a wake forest team they've beaten 12 straight (tho the deacons are 5-2 ats the last 7). wake is 15-6 ats getting points on the road, while cu is just 3-6 ats the last 2 years as home chalk, though they're 4-1 ats of late when favored in death valley-sc by less than 10. tigers d figures to slow down wake's offense, and wake's swiss cheese d should make clemson's anemic defense look, well, less anemic. clemson.
9. (9-1) #3
OREGON AT (7-3) #24 UTAH -3, (OPEN -2.5)
love good teams getting points. utah is just 2-11 ats as chalk vs .900/better opponents, though the utes are 17-8 ats vs pac 12 of late. ducks are 5-2 ats since '19 as road dogs, and this year? as a favorite, uo is 2-6 ats. getting points? 2-0 ats, 2-0 su. oregon in a low scoring affair.
10. (6-4) ARIZONA STATE AT (6-4)
OREGON STATE +3, (OPEN +3)
asu put up 3 td's in the last 6:00 to slip by washington 35-30. but the sun devils are just 3-8 ats as road chalk, and especially bad (2-5 su) in the cold weather sites of the pac 12. beavers have covered 7 of their last 8 at home. oregon state.
11. (7-3) ARKANSAS AT (9-1) #2
ALABAMA -20.5, (OPEN -22)
going backwards in the last 5 years, the hogs have had their head handed to them by the tide to the tune of 52-3, 48-7, 65-31, 41-9 and 49-30. alabama is 9-1 ats as home chalk since '20. in its last 4 games, the tide d has held each of its opponents to season lows in total yds. alabama.
12. (6-4)
IOWA STATE AT (9-1) #8 OKLAHOMA -4.5, (OPEN -8.5)
in the 86 games between these 2, the cyclones have won just 7. but 2 of those wins have been in the last 5 years, and isu has covered 5 of the last 6 vs ou. they're also 5-1 ats w/big 12 revenge, 4-1 ats as dogs of 10/less. sooners are 6-10 ats off a first loss of a season. oklahoma still controls its big 12 destiny, but I think this one stays close. iowa state.
13. (7-3)
ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM AT (10-0) #23 TEXAS – SAN ANTONIO -4.5, (OPEN -3)
uab is just 1 game behind the roadrunners in the sun belt west. utsa is one of just 3 remaining unbeatens, and started to show some nerves in a close win last week over southern miss. blazers are 2-1 su/ats this year as underdogs, and I think their good defense keeps them in this one. alabama-birmingham.
14. (9-1) #10
OKLAHOMA STATE AT (6-4) TEXAS TECH +10.5, (OPEN +10)
saw where texas tech's radio play by play and analyst guys actually got suspended for this game, for not only being hyper critical of big 12 officials in last week's dramatic 41-38 win over iowa state (one of them said it was obvious the league wanted isu to win) but for reading off the names of the officials on air after some of the calls (big 12 office didn't like that). not sure if any of the red raiders will like the results of this one. cowboys have covered 8 straight this season, and allowed just 23 points total the last 3 games, holding league opponents this year 156 yds/game below their season average. tech has covered 5 straight in the series, they're 6-2 ats of late as home dogs, and osu does have the arch rival sooners on deck. but texas tech is giving up an average of 457 yds/game to big 12 foes. oklahoma state.
15. (8-2) #13 BAYLOR AT (7-3)
KANSAS STATE – PICK, (OPEN -2)
so how does baylor handle beating ou for the 1st time since '14? the bears have won 7 of the last 9 in this series, and is rushing for 245/game. ksu counters w/a run d giving up just 123/game during its 4 game win streak. and baylor is just 1-9 ats as a dog of 14/less after playing the sooners lately. the wildcats are 9-3 ats of late when the line is between -3 & +3. they've also covered the last 8 games they've played at home off a win. upset. kansas state.
16. (6-4) UCLA AT (4-5)
USC +3.5, (OPEN +3)
strange season in troy, no doubt. but the trojans are 10-1 su/8-3 ats in the coliseum vs the bruins lately, 5-0 su/ats when they play ucla w/a record under .750. usc has won just 4 game this season but they've actually outgained 7 of their 9 opponents, a good sign for underdogs. southern cal is 9-3 ats w/rest, 6-0 ats as home dogs off 2 losses, and 6-0 ats as home dogs w/a losing record. fight on.