WEEK 19FRIDAY 31 DECGATOR BOWL – JACKSONVILLE, FL – 11:00A EST
(10-3) WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS VS (5-7)
RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS +16.5
loss.would love to steal a pick here, but rutgers having just practiced for a week, wake had such an awesome season w/such a dynamic offense, aw what the hell. the scarlet knights gave um a scare this year, maybe they can do the same here. rutgers.
SUN BOWL – EL PASO, TX – 12:00P EST
(7-5) WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS VS (8-4)
CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS +7 (OPEN PK).
win. won some $$ on this oneat least cmu is a bowl replacement who's been practicing. wsu had a season full of extremes, from a coach losing his job due to his vax stance to his replacement leading the cougars to a 6-3 league record including 2 blowout wins to end the season (arizona, uw). still, pac-12 bowlers are 1-22 ats vs teams off a win, and the chippewas ended their season w/4 straight, averaging 41 pts/game. um is in the playoff, msu/western michigan won it's bowl game, it must be the year of the mitten state. central.
COTTON BOWL – ARLINGTON, TX – 3:30P EST
(13-0)
CINCINNATI BEARCATS VS (12-1) ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -13.5 (OPEN -13)
loss. tide d was suffocatingno doubt the tide defense will be the toughest uc has faced all year, but imho the bearcat secondary will be bryce young's stiffest challenge as well. both teams allowed 306/game to opponents. cincy created 30+ turnovers this season, alabama had less than 10. if uc doesn't continue that trend it will be an even steeper climb. will be interesting to see how metchie's absence affects the attention williams gets in coverage, as well as how often/effective the tide's run game is, as well as young's scrambling. can the bearcats get pressure on him like auburn did? or will the tide o-line be a stone wall like it was vs uga? I think it's a low scoring game. here are the trends I've discovered; bowl teams off a ccg su win as a dog are 12-4 ats of late, but alabama is just 1-4 ats as bowl chalk of 9+, and since 1980 defending champs are 6-11 ats as -7+ chalk the following bowl season. uc is the only bowl dog this year who was favored in every regular season game, and unbeaten dogs in this role are 8-2 ats. since '18 the bearcats are 5-1 ats getting points. I think this stays interesting all the way thru. cincinnati.
ORANGE BOWL – MIAMI, FL – 7:30P EST
(12-1) GEORGIA BULLDOGS VS (12-1)
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES +7.5 (OPEN +7.5)
loss. bad matchup for um, + uga looked very sharp.another game where I think the underdog's defense keeps the game close. to me these two are more of a mirror image of each other. both are strong across both lines on both sides of the ball. both like running more than passing. qb's who've been efficient but not flashy. um has the edge in the run game w/hassan/coram. uga has the better receiving corps featuring te bowers, and also gets an injured wr back (pickens). hard to see the wolverines achieving the kind of rushing success they did vs tosu/iowa, so there will be pressure on qb mcnamara, in addition to the pressure georgia's front 7 will bring. you've got momentum for the ugly hats, vs anger for uga trying to get that acidic sec ccg taste out of their mouth. trends-um is 0-4 su/ats in its last 4 bowl games, 1-11 su/2-12 ats vs .923+ opponents. for uga, bowlers who are off a loss that gave up 14/less a game are 25-10-1 ats, they're 6-2 ats the last 8 bowls (4-1 ats as chalk of 13/less, and sec favorites are 9-3 ats lately vs big 10 foes in the post season. michigan covers, georgia wins.
SATURDAY, 1 JANUARYOUTBACK BOWL – TAMPA, FL – 12:00P EST
(7-5) PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS VS (8-4)
ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS -2 (OPEN -4).
win1st ever meeting. psu's biggest strengths, it's wide outs and defense, will have some serious holes, w/at least 6 starters opting out, including all-american wr johann dotson and 5 players on defense, all not just starters but stars/significant contributors. I don't think the d is deep enough for that to not make a difference vs the strong balanced run/pass attack from the hogs, even though they'll also be missing their top wr. trends-sub .666 teams (psu) are just 10-20 su/ats in new year's day bowl games, and the nitts didn't beat a winning team after week 3. arkansas.
FIESTA BOWL – GLENDALE, AZ – 1:00P EST
(11-2)
OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS VS (11-1) NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH -2.
win1st ever meeting. phoenix has not been good for the irish, who are 1-4 su/ats in the fiesta, as well as 0-6 su/ats since 2000 in new year's 6/bcs bowls. and now they're up vs 1 of the best defenses in cfb. matter of fact, if you look at the line ups, I'm not sure there's a single position where the cowboys aren't better or at least equal. nd replacing brian kelly w/tosu alum marcus freeman (if kelly doesn't leave I think he would be the new def. coord here) was really popular w/the team, so that could be a factor. but another factor is rb kryen williams (1002 yds rushing, 14 td's) opting out. will osu miss def coord jim knowles who did agree to the tosu job? trends-the domers are 2-4 su/1-5 ats vs .846+ big 12 foes, and 7-13 su/6-14 ats vs bowl foes who allow less than 19 pts/game (cowboys allow 16.8). oklahoma state.
CITRUS BOWL – ORLANDO, FL – 1:00P EST
(10-3)
IOWA HAWKEYES VS (9-3) KENTUCKY WILDCATS -3, (OPEN -3).
pushuk coach mark stoops takes on his alma mater. his cats are stronger on offense, especially the run game (206/game), the hawkeyes are good vs the run (106/game) and causing turnovers (24 picks). they'll have to w/an offense averaging 298/game (worst of any bowl team). kentucky turned the ball over 22 times this year (-1.08 margin, worst of any bowl team). trends-uk is 0-3 ats as bowl chalk, hawks 11-4 ats as 10/less bowl dogs. bowl teams who scored 3/less in their last game (iowa 42-3 loss to um) are 1-11 ats. bowl teams who scored 50+ in their last 2 games (wildcats) are 2-11 ats. I'm on the under 44.5, but on the side I lean to iowa.
ROSE BOWL – PASADENA, CA – 5:00P EST
(10-2)
OHIO STATE VS (10-3) UTAH UTES +4, (OPEN +7)
loss. yes, it was a nail biter. yes, I wish henderson had cut right and taken that last carry to the end zone too. lolI said at the end of november that utah was the team nobody wanted to face in the post season. on a passionate mission gelling as a team after 2 teammates died during the season. physical, averaging 200+ rush/pass. and unlike the bucks, pasadena is a positive destination to end the year. except for qb and wr, I think they match up well w/tosu, especially w/the opt outs of olave, wilson, garrett and petit-frere. even w/losing those wr stars, c.j. stroud will have talented receivers. the biggest question is whether they can stop the run, which didn't happen in the losses to uo and um. still, that was ryan day's 1st big 10 loss in his 3 years as head coach so it's not like the sky is falling. as for trends, the utes have been a fantastic dog under kyle wittingham (14-5-1 ats, 5-1 su/ats in bowls, 11-3 su in bowls). the bucks are just 6-9 su/5-10 ats in bowls off a loss, and bowl chalk of -2/more off a su loss are just 2-9 ats lately. hoping to see a lot more 'want to' from the scarlet & gray than the public seems to expect, but this should be a nail biter.
utah.. edit 1:25 pm est 1/1/22. think the bucks will redeem themselves. the ohio state university.
SUGAR BOWL – NEW ORLEANS, LA – 8:45P EST
(11-2) BAYLOR BEARS VS (10-2)
OLE MISS REBELS -1.5, (OPEN -2)
kudos to rebel qb matt corral for (after announcing he's headed early for nfl draft) still playing in this game, which should give his team a boost. both teams average 200+ rushing but ol'miss has the more explosive pass attack. both also much improved on d but baylor allowing just 348 yds/game and 19 ppg. only 2 teams put up 28+ on the bears this season. which I why I'm wondering if under 55 is an option. trends-rebels are 8-1 ats in their last 9 bowl games. for the bears, bowl teams off an underdog ccg win are 12-4 ats, and they're 7-1 su/6-2 ats vs bowl qualifying foes in '21. slightest of leans to mississippi.
TUESDAY, 4 JANUARYTEXAS BOWL – HOUSTON, TX – 9:00P EST
(6-6) LSU TIGERS VS (7-5)
KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -3.5, (OPEN +2.5)
wondering where lsu's mojo will be, w/an interim coach on board til brian kelly officially takes over. qb myles brennan entered, then exited, the transfer portal, which will be a plus. but a big minus is tiger lb (can't remember his first name) clark who opted out, after leading the sec in tackles. that could open up run lanes for k-state rb deuce vaughan and qb skylar thompson. I'm also wondering about a letdown after an inspired lsu beat texas a&m in ed orgeron's finale. shaky nod to kansas state.
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