WEEK 7“Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster?”
“I don't think so, but I could check with the kitchen.”I got you, babe.
ALL SATURDAY GAMES1.
MINNESOTA (4-1)
@ ILLINOIS (5-1)
+6.5gophers have won 5 of the last 7, but a season ago the illini pulled off a 14-6 upset which helped deny minnesota a shot at the big 10 west. in terms of pts allowed/game, you have the best in the nation (illinois, 8.0) and the 2nd best (minn. at 8.8). gophers are 7-3 ats w/revenge, 4-0 ats off a bye, and get rb mohammed ibriham back. nice matchup w/big 10 leading rusher chase brown for illinois. w/the home team off physical games vs badgers/iowa, and since 1980 game 6 road teams off their 1st loss going 10-1 ats as fave/dog of 7/less vs league foes who are off a win... minnesota
2. # 10
PENN STATE (5-0)
@ #4 MICHIGAN (6-0)
-6.5a believe this is the first time both teams have been in the top 10 when playing each other since the late 90s. both are solid on defense also (um giving up just 11.3/game, psu 14.8), especially vs the run. they've split the last 6 meetings, w/the road team winning the last 2. the nitts appear to finally have a ground game this year, w/singleton and allen. blake corum has put up heisman-like numbers early for the ugly hats, gaining 765 yds rushing. the only difference between the two appears to be at qb, where 10 yr veteran sean clifford may give psu an edge over um's talented 1st yr starter j.j. mccarthy. that 5-0 dog trend I mentioned last week applies here also. since '80 those teams are 56-35-3 ats. wolverines win, I think, but penn state covers.
3. #1 ALABAMA (6-0)
@ #8
TENNESSEE (5-0)
+7.5speaking of the late 90s, it's been since then that the 3rd saturday of october had this much meaning in knoxville. tide has won an amazing 15 straight in the series (11-4 ats). what might be as amazing is alabama turning the ball over 4 times last week (2 of them setting up texas a&m scores), missing 2 fg's, passing for only 111 yds, having the aggies on their 2 yd line as game ended, and still winning. vols qb herndon hooker, since taking over as starter last season, has tossed 41 td's w/just 3 picks. if bryce young can go for alabama, he'll be facing a tennessee secondary that has given up 307 yds/game. if.... the tide is just 1-4 ats as road chalk of 15/less lately, and 2-6 ats as 10/less faves when unbeaten vs unbeaten opponents. gibbs has done a great job for them the last 2 weeks, running for 350+. but if young isn't 100% I don't think that's enough. 7 of alabama's last 12 games vs fbs opponents have been decided by a td/less. plus the 5-0 underdog trend fits for this one too. bowo will have quite a hangover sunday imho. tennessee.
4. #13
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (5-1)
@ #18 SYRACUSE (5-0)
-3the 'cuse is one of the more unlikely unbeatens at this point in '22. wolfpack have won 6 of the last 7 in the series. they lost their qb in the 19-17 win over fla st (a non-cover that cost me a couple $$) but their defense is still real good. and the orange are a 5-0 favorite; teams in that role the last 40+ years have struggled (counting last week, they're 174-217-8 ats, around 44%). nc state.
5. #17
MISSISSIPPI STATE (5-1)
@ #22 KENTUCKY (4-2)
+7a battle of wills in lexington. msu qb will rogers deserves more recognition for his half year production, passing for 22 td's and 2000+ yds. uk qb will levis, despite some injury struggles that's played a part in the wildcats' 2 losses, is still the #1 qb on some nfl draft-niks lists. the home team in this series has covered 8 straight, and kentucky is 9-0 ats w/sec revenge, 4-0 ats as home dogs but 0-4 ats off a su loss. w/levis' health still in question, and the bulldogs more battle tested, gotta go w/mississippi state.
6. ARKANSAS (3-3)
@
BYU (4-2)
+2heartbreaking loss for the cougars to notre dame last week and byu is just 1-8 ats vs sec opponents since '90. the hogs have qb injury issues too w/jefferson out, but averaging 234 yds/game rushing helps, and the irish gashed byu on the ground saturday night. razorbacks have lost their last 3 games out west, though. shaky nod to byu.
7. #7
OKLAHOMA STATE (5-0)
@ #15 TCU (5-0)
-3.5those 2 5-0 trends collide in ft worth. tcu beat kansas saturday, but I was surprised the margin wasn't larger after ku's qb got knocked out of the game early in the 2nd qtr. home team is 8-2 su/ats the last 10 in this series, but the underdog has pulled 5 outright wins. nice qb matchup w/osu's spencer sanders and tcu's max duggan. the cowboys are 13-5-1 ats vs ranked foes since '18, 5-0 ats in big 12 road games. oklahoma state.
8.
LSU (4-2)
@ FLORIDA (4-2)
-2.5tigers have covered 7 of the last 8 vs uf, winning the last 2 in dramatic fashion as dogs. but lsu is off a 40-13 drubbing from tennessee, a team florida played much closer (38-33 loss). but the gators struggled on offense last week vs mizzou, getting outgained 297-370 despite winning 24-17. and they're just 1-4 ats in sec revenge games of late. lsu.
9. #5
CLEMSON (6-0)
@ FLORIDA STATE (4-2)
+4the noles started 4-0 but now have lost 2 straight, blowing a 14-3 lead in the loss to nc state. now they face the tigers, who've covered 4 straight and won the last 6 in the series and appears to be jelling on offense. fsu is 1-4 ats in acc home revenge matchups. clemson.
10. #6
USC (6-0)
@ #19 UTAH (4-2)
-3utah was the pac 12 trendy pick early. but ucla pulled off the upset last week, which makes this a must win for the utes. utah is 19-8 ats vs pac 12 opponents but just 1-12 ats as favorites vs unbeaten foes. trojans are pretty similar when it comes to being a road dog (1-8 ats) lately, but I like usc in a very close game.
11. WASHINGTON STATE (4-2)
@
OREGON STATE (4-2)
-3.5cougars lost to usc last week, but has done well the last few years in the game after (5-1 ats), as well as in games as dogs of 4/less (8-1 ats). the beavers as -4/less chalk are 2-6 ats. but they're 8-1 ats as home favorites. wsu has won 8 straight in the series, but osu has the better o-line. oregon state.
12.
AUBURN (3-3)
@ #9 OLE MISS (6-0)
-14.5rebels are unbeaten vs a very soft schedule. war eagle is 3-3 vs much tougher opposition. au has played great 1st halves (down only 14-0 to uga, up 17-0 vs lsu and 14-0 over missouri) but has collapsed in the final 30 minutes each week (outscored 125-31 the last 9 games). ol' miss struggled w/vandy before pouring it on in the 2nd half. they also have lsu, a&m and alabama on the horizon in coming weeks. with auburn having won the last 6 in this series, I think 2 td'+ is too much to give. auburn.
13.
MARYLAND (4-2)
@ INDIANA (3-3)
+12for the 2nd time since joining the big 10, the terps are a double digit road chalk. and they deserve to be, especially on offense, even after a 31-29 home loss to purdue. hoosiers have scrapped but have been outgained in all 6 games so far this year, and are 2-7-1 ats as home dogs vs .666+ opponents. maryland.
14. MEMPHIS (4-2)
@
EAST CAROLINA (3-3)
-4.5memphis has allowed 12 qb sacks in the last 3 weeks, and are 1-9 ats in their last 10 road games. they're also off a shocking 33-32 home loss to houston, blowing a 19 pt lead in the 2nd half. ecu is outgaining its opponents by nearly 100 yds/game, and they're 8-1 ats at home vs memphis lately. pirates.
15. #25 NORTH CAROLINA (5-1)
@
DUKE (4-2)
+7unc hits the road for the 14 mile trek from chapel hill to durham, w/the winner taking hold of the acc coastal. blue devils have lost 3 straight in this series, where the favorite is just 6-13-1 ats the last 20 years. the tar heels' offense is dynamite, but their defense should be blown up, allowing 466 yds/32 pts a game. duke.
my bonus pick.... iowa state +16.6 over some hungover 'horns in texas.
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