"I look stupid."
"No, you don't, you look dapper."
"John, I look like something you give to your kid when you tell 'em Grandma died."uh oh. no clue on the quote.
WEEK 9PAY ATTENTION TO THE EARLY GAME!THURSDAY GAME1. #14 UTAH (5-2) AT
WASHINGTON STATE (4-3) +7.
winutes off an emotional 43-42 win over usc, while wsu is off a bye after 2 losses. utah has won the last 3 (but is just 2-6 ats the last 8) in the series and 2-6 ats as road chalk of late, while the cougars are 9-3-1 ats of late vs pac 12 opponents, 7-0 ats in its last 7 home games, 7-1 ats off scoring 10/less and 7-3 ats w/triple revenge. washington state.
SATURDAY GAMES
2.
FLORIDA (4-3) VS #1 GEORGIA (7-0) -22.5
for just the 3rd time since '80, uga is a double digit fave in the cocktail party. that includes last year (-14) in a 34-7 win. both teams are off byes, which hasn't been good for uf lately (0-6 ats vs foes off an off week), but since '90 the dawgs are just 3-7-1 ats in this series when they come in w/the better record. all 3 of the gators' losses this season have been by 10/less, and qb anthony richardson's legs remain a threat, even vs georgia's stout d. even though only 1 of the last 8 games has been decided by less than 2 td's I think uf's run game is good enough to stay within reach. florida.
3. #10 WAKE FOREST (6-1) AT
LOUISVILLE (4-3) +3.5
love louisiville's chances here. the last 6 games in this series have all gone over, averaging 81+ total. cards have also covered the last 3 vs wake. 2 dynamic qb's (sam hartman's arm, malik cunninghham's feet) but 'ville has a much better d, vs a much tougher schedule, and the demon deacons are just 1-5 ats as road chalk off back/back wins. louisville.
4. #19 CINCINNATI (6-1) AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA (5-2) -0.5
unstoppable force (ucf is #6 in fbs averaging 511 total yds/game) vs immovable object (uc is 17th in total defense, allowing just 305 yds/gm). knights have lost 3 straight in the series, and are off a 34-13 pummeling to east carolina, thx in large part to 4 turnovers. I think that result gives the home team some value here and the home team in uc-ucf has covered 6 of the last 7. central florida.
5.
MISSOURI (3-4) AT #25 SOUTH CAROLINA (5-2) -3.5
gamecocks are 0-3 su/ats vs mizzou. a year ago the tigers were up 17 in the 4th before usc-east got 2 td's to make it close. last week carolina beat texas a&m 30-24 despite being outgained 398-286 by the aggies, thx to a 100 yd td kickoff return and a 19 yd td drive set up by a pick. vs vandy last week missouri was -3 in turnovers, including an 80 yd fumble return for td, in a 17-14 win. 2 good defenses, 2 struggling offenses. kudos to south carolina for its current 4 game win streak but imho the hook is the play here. missouri.
6. #17
KENTUCKY (5-2) AT #3 TENNESSEE (7-0) -12.5
oddsmakers are giving uk a ton of respect, mainly due to 2 factors; the vols have a mega date in athens w/georgia next week, and a defense that's giving up 421 yds/game. when your offense is putting up 500+, 421 isn't a disaster, unless you come up on a stingier opponent. the wildcats so far this season are allowing just 296/game. plus there are a ton of trends favoring the rested big blue; 11-2 ats as sec dogs of 7+, 4-1 ats off a sec home dog win (beat miss. st. 27-17 2 weeks ago), 9-1 ats off a win, 10-1 ats the last 11 games vs unbeaten opponents. tennessee of late is 7-14-1 ats vs sec opponents who are off a bye week. vols have absolutely dominated this series (34-3 su, 23-7 ats the last 30 games), but they lost here 2 yrs ago to uk and should've lost in lexington a year ago (outgained 612-461 but won 45-42) in a game where uk had 99 plays and tennessee just 42. behind rb chris rodriguez I think they can hang around again. I think. lol. kentucky.
7. MICHIGAN STATE (3-4) AT #4
MICHIGAN (7-0) -22.5
ugly hats' blood has been boiling for this one after sparty has taken the last 2 in this series, including a bizarre win in east lansing last yr. both are off a bye. msu did surprise wisconsin 2 weeks ago, but in their previous 4 games allowed an average 528 yds per contest, while the wolverines have held 5 of their 7 opponents to season lows in total offense. there's not one unit where um doesn't have an advantage here. michigan.
8.
PITTSBURGH (4-3) AT #23 NORTH CAROLINA (6-1) -3.5
once again vegas is giving an underdog a ton of respect. the panthers are very solid on defense, and are 5-0 ats of late off a su loss, 16-8 ats as road dogs. the heels are outstanding on offense, but on defense they stand out in not so hot ways. plus they're 2-5 ats as home chalk of 7/less. pittsburgh.
9. #7 TCU (7-0) AT
WEST VIRGINIA (3-4) +7.5
the mountaineers have not had a good year, but they've won 4 straight in this series. after 4 tough games, the last 2 come from behind wins, becoming just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to come back from 17 point deficits to beat ranked opponents back to back, I'm wondering if the horned frogs are due for a letdown. these 2 share 1 common big 12 foe so far; kansas. wvu outgained ku by nearly 100 yds but was -2 in turnovers and had the unusual 2 score ot loss 55-42 (1 of turnovers was a fumble returned for 6 to end the game); tcu beat the jayhawks 38-31 despite allowing 540 yards and being outgained by nearly 100 yds. the hillbillies are 10-5 ats at home vs unbeaten opponents. make it 11. west virginia.
10. #2
OHIO STATE (7-0) AT #13 PENN STATE (6-1) +15.5
this is the 30th straight year these 2 have met, the longest consecutive series tosu has now since um backed out of the '20 game. in the last decade, 3 things have held true when these 2 meet; the bucks will will (9 of the last 10, 16 of the last 20), the nitts will cover (5 of the last 6), and its been one of the best games not just of the big 10 season but nationally. psu was awful vs michigan, allowing 418 yds rushing, then did a 180, gaining 479 ttl yds in a 45-17 rout of minnesota. their db's are top shelf... joey porter will be playing on sundays soon, and they have 2 promising young rb's to take some of the load off qb sean clifford. on the other side, c.j. stroud has allowed a defensive score (pick 6 to sparty, fumble td to iowa) in the first qtr 2 straight weeks. hmm. but... the bucks have held 5 opponents to season low total yds, which gets overshadowed by the offensive fireworks, and are 4-1 ats in away games vs .750+ league foes.. despite the recent series spread success, penn state is 14-28-1 ats vs unbeaten big 10 opponents, and only 2-5 ats as home dogs of 17/under. I think saturday it's the buckeye run game behind henderson and williams, plus the improved defense, that keys a quality win. ohio state.
11. #9
OKLAHOMA STATE (6-1) AT #22 KANSAS STATE (5-2) -1.5
cowboys have won 3 straight in this series, and triple revengers who are quality teams are usually a solid bet. but... k-state qb adrian martinez and his back up both got banged up last week in the loss that cost me $$ to tcu and are questionable for this one. plus okie state is an amazing 13-1 ats in its last 14 big 12 regular season games and 7-1 ats as a b-12 road dog. oklahoma state.
12. TOLEDO (5-3) AT
EASTERN MICHIGAN (5-3) +6.5
toledo was another team who lost their starting qb (dequan finn) in a loss to buffalo (actually made $$ on that one). rockets are 5-1 su/ats off a loss of late, and are still in first in the mac west, but emu could move into a tie for the top spot w/a win. the eagles beat ut 52-49 last yr, but are just 3-19 su/7-15 ats in the series. yet, the last 9 times the team w/the gray field has been a dog, not only have they covered 6 times but they've won 6 times. eastern michigan.
13.
COASTAL CAROLINA (6-1) AT MARSHALL (4-3) -2.5
1st ever mtg. herd is off a win over james madison but they're just 2-7 ats as home chalk. c-c-u is 8-2-1 ats as road dogs and the chanticleers have a huge edge on offense. trends for teams off a bye/off their first loss (49-21 to old dominion in a shocker) are usually not positive, but w/marshall very unsettled at qb and passing for just 140/game.... coastal carolina.
14.
NOTRE DAME (4-3) AT #16 SYRACUSE (6-1) -3
that ex-unbeaten team off a 1st loss trend applies here too for the orange, who blew a 2 td lead in a 27-21 loss at clemson. the final score though was pretty misleading.... s-u was outgained 450-291, 293 of that 450 on the ground. that good news for an irish offense that's better running the ball than passing. syracuse saw multiple starters on d go down w/injuries last week too. here's a cfb nerd stat for the week... did you know that nd has won 25 straight regular season games vs their part time acc league peers? I didn't. make it 26. notre dame.
15. #10 USC (6-1) AT
ARIZONA (3-4) +15.5
the trojans are yet another unbeaten bubble burst team off the loss at utah 2 weeks ago. since 1980, teams in this scenario are just 11-21 ats in game 8 league road games. and usc is also just 1-4 ats lately after tangling w/the utes, 3-8 ats as -14/more road chalk. 'zona is 11-6 ats as 10+ home pac 12 dogs, 10-5 ats w/revenge (there's a lot of it here... the wildcats haven't beaten southern cal since '12). ua has no d, but enough o to hang around in a high scoring affair in the desert. arizona.
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