WEEK 4“Ya know, you see a girl a couple of times a week, just for laughs, and right away they think you're gonna divorce your wife. Now I ask you, is that fair?”
“No, sir, it's very unfair... Especially to your wife.”I know this one! the one where the dad in my 3 sons came out looking like a heel.
. classic flick
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK, THIS IS A BOWL SEASON WEEK. LOTS OF INTERESTING GAMES.
ALL GAMES SATURDAY1.
RUTGERS (3-0) AT #2 MICHIGAN (3-0) -24
since state u of nj entered the big 10, they are 1-8 su vs the ugly hats, but 5-4 ats. um has won easily but looked a little listless in the absence of khoach khaki, but I expected some extra energy w/harbaugh back on the sidelines. that said, rutgers has allowed just 236 yds/game so far, vs stronger competition than um has played, and they're 5-1-1 ats as road dogs vs unbeaten opponents. I think the scarlet knights stay within 3 td's.
2. #4 FLORIDA STATE (3-0) AT
CLEMSON (2-1) +2.5
hard to believe there's actually a 'do or die' game before the end of september, but it qualifies here for the tigers, whose acc title/cfb playoff chances basically die w/o a win over fsu. clemson has won 14 straight at home vs unbeaten foes, 5-0 su/ats in their last 5 games vs the 'noles, and 4-1 ats as home chalk/dogs of 4/less. florida st is just 2-5 ats in away games w/revenge. c...l...e...m...s...o... (wave hand around)... n.
3. #16 OKLAHOMA (3-0) AT
CINCINNATI (2-1)+14.5
in honor of uc's opener as a member of the big 12, here's a trivia question for you (try to answer w/o looking it up)... exactly how many leagues does this make for the bearcats as a member? answer is at the bottom of the picks. last week cincy got upset by miami at nippert stadium (despite outgaining the redhawks by 180 yds), just the 2nd home loss in their last 33 homes games. the sooners' d has looked good so far in '23, but they are just 1-7 ats in their last 8 games as big 12 road chalk. cincinnati keeps this interesting.
4. AUBURN (3-0) AT
TEXAS A&M (2-1) -7.5
the aggies' 1 loss was to a u of miami team w/a much better offense than what war eagle brings to college station. a&m is just 5-11-2 ats in league home openers, but this one has revenge from a 13-10 loss on the plains in '22. a&m
5.
SMU (2-1) AT TCU (2-1) -6.5
battle for the iron skillet #102 in ft. worth. last week, smu was a 63.5 pt favorite vs prairie view... and covered, winning 69-0. this series has been decided by a single score the last 3 yrs, but tcu has informed the mustangs that they don't want a skillet #105, saying they want to 'pause' the series after 2025. that may swing a little momentum to the ponies, and so will tcu's 1-9 ats record of late when favored by a td/less. let's hear it for the southern methodists!
6. #19 COLORADO (3-0) AT #10
OREGON (3-0) – 21
the cu carousel has captured the country, but they're in a tough spot going to eugene. 1. the buffs beat colorado st despite being outgained by nearly 100 yds. not promising w/a much more potent uo offense on deck vs their rather porous defense. 2. despite the fast start, colorado is still 2-7 ats in their last 9 games vs pac 12 foes, including 0-6 ats as road dogs. 3. having wr/db travis hunter lost to a lacerated liver (welcome to 'all alterations, anytime). 4. oregon owns the odds (see?) recently, winning 9 of 10 and covering 8 of those. ducks.
7. #22 UCLA (3-0) AT #11
UTAH (3-0) -4.5
utes are 8-1 ats as home chalk lately of 10/less, and 6-1 ats w/pac 12 revenge. prior to last year the bruins had gone 0-5 su/ats vs utah. it's also the first road start for ucla freshman qb dante moore.
8. #15 OLE MISS (3-0) AT #13
ALABAMA (2-1) -7
'bama's qb switch did not bear the expected fruit last week in tampa vs usf, a 17-3 win that actually sparked more questions then the loss to texas. the rebels are off 2 big (but misleading imho) win margins thanks to 4th qtr surges vs tulane/ga tech. the tide is still 13-6-1 ats as home chalk, and (cfb nerd stat #1) the last 8 times saban/alabama has been off back/back double digit ats losses, they've won/covered all 8. news of nick's burial imho is premature.
9. BYU (3-0) AT
KANSAS (3-0) -8.5
cougars are off an unexpected sec road win at ar-kansas; this week they are-in-kansas for big 12 game #1. byu was outgained 424-281, plus they're just 1-5 ats off scoring 30+ pts, but they're also 12-4 ats as road dogs. jayhawks are a solid 13-5-1 ats at home off a win, 14-1-1 ats off a road win. rock chalk.
10.
ARKANSAS (2-1) AT #12 LSU (2-1) -17.5
in a cfb era dominated by offenses, it's hard to believe that the last 2 games in this series have featured a total of just 52 pts (lsu winning 13-10 last yr; hogs won 16-13 in '21). razorbacks are 13-6-1 ats as road dogs... and their defense has 1. yet to give up 300 yds, 2. has 12 sacks, and 3. is allowing just 1.7 yds/carry. jayden daniels has been dynamite for the tigers, passing and running, but he's going to need some help saturday. hogs hang around.
11. #14 OREGON STATE (3-0) AT #21
WASHINGTON ST. (3-0) +3
the 2024 pac-2 title game gets played a year early on the palouse in pullman. in '22 the beavers beat wsu to break an 8 game series losing streak. oregon st is 2-7 ats as road chalk, while the cougars are an impressive 6-2 ats as home dogs, including the su win over wisconsin a couple weeks ago, plus (cfb nerd stat alert) game 4 home teams in 3-0 vs 3-0 matchups are 18-9 ats. wazzuu.
12. #3
TEXAS (3-0) AT BAYLOR (1-2) +15
going into the 4th qtr last week, texas was tied 10-10 vs wyoming, still hungover from the alabama win. I think the horns are sober now. even though the bears own the trends here (4-1 ats the last 5 in the series, 11-3 ats w/big 12 revenge, 5-2 ats as a big 12 home dog), they're missing their starting qb and other starters. longhorns.
13. #6 OHIO STATE AT #9
NOTRE DAME (3-0) +3
1st of all, if you see a guy under the south end zone in the bob uecker top row seats (screen right from the press box/tv cameras) w/a scarlet-ish shirt and dark 'o' hat tomorrow night, be nice. when this game was posted in august, tosu was -8.5. so Irish love is plentiful. qb sam hartman has brought a dynamic element (13 td's, 0 picks, 71%, 1061 yds) partnered w/ rb audric estime (521 yds, 5 td's 8.3/carry) to an offense that last yr in columbus, which gained 54 yds on the game's opening play then just 199 the remaining 46 plays. the bucks were the more physical team on both sides of the ball then. imho if the physical game is a draw, ohio state wins w/their overall advantage in the skill players, as long as they don't give notre dame short fields via turnovers/special teams. the trends lean toward the domers; 6-2 ats of late as home dogs, 8-2 ats as home dogs w/revenge, and (cfb nerd stat alert) home dogs who've scored 40+ in their past 3 games are 28-11 ats since 1980. but... the buckeyes are 11-4 ats the last 15 times the line has been under 5 points (as a favorite or a dog). bucks win, nd covers. 30-28.
14. #24 IOWA (3-0) AT #7
PENN STATE (3-0) -15
these 2 didn't play last yr, but did the previous 6 seasons. nitts went 4-2 su (losses the last 2 games) w/4 of the 6 decided by 6 pts/less. psu is also 0-4 ats as chalk of 10+ in the series. iowa has a huge disadvantage w/their lack of a pass game (151 yds/game in '23) but since '18 they've been a solid road dog (8-5 ats) thanks to a consistently solid defense. but this yr penn state's d looks nearly as good. late score gives white out fans a win + cover
15.
MISSISSIPPI ST (2-1) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (1-2) -6.5
lost some $$ on the bulldogs becoming toothless last week vs lsu. the transition from the late mike leach's air attack is taking time. gamecocks gave uga all they could handle last week, and spencer rattler has a good season going, but usc-east is just 1-6 ats vs winning opponents the week after taking on georgia. mississippi state.
mark's trivia question on cincinnati's total number of league memberships... this makes 10. big 12, american athletic, big east, conference usa, great midwest, metro, missouri valley, mid-american, buckeye athletic, ohio athletic. that's a lot of banners in the gym rafters.
. classic flick
