“I BELIEVE EVERYTHING AND I BELIEVE NOTHING. I SUSPECT EVERYONE AND I SUSPECT NO ONE.”not sure about the movie, but it sounds like something one of the inspector clouseau's might say...
WEEK 5FRIDAY1. LOUISVILLE (4-0) AT
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (3-1) +3
cards have looked good, beating foes by 3 td's/game. but they may be looking ahead to nd next week, plus they're 1-6 ats off back/back wins as a favorite. wolfpack is 7-3 ats as home dogs off a win. nc state.
2. CINCINNATI (2-2) AT
BYU (3-1) -2
2 good defenses, 2 mediocre offenses. cougars are just 1-6 ats as home chalk. uc is off 2 home losses. flipping a coin, taking the home team.
3. #10 UTAH (4-0) AT #19
OREGON STATE (3-1) -3
in '17, the beavers were 1-11. in '18, jonathon smith took over at his alma mater. and not counting the covid year in '20j, osu's win total has been 2, then 5, then 7, then 10-3 w/a bowl win over florida in '22. fantastic job. on the other side, kyle whittingham's team is built on a barbed wire defense and an offense held together by baling wire while qb cam rising rehabs his acl, though he has practiced this week. host has covered 4 straight here, oregon st. is 7-0 ats w/pac 12 revenge, but that's all been as an underdog. still, they are 14-1 ats the last 15 home games, while the utes are 4-9 ats in their last 13 road games. lean to oregon st.
SATURDAY4. #8
USC (4-0) AT COLORADO (3-1) +21.5
proof positive that tv running cfb has some issues; this game kicks off at 10 am mountain, 9 am pacific time. jeez. buffs got beat up by oregon, while sc sleepwalked thru a 42-28 win in tempe over asu. trojans are 16-0 su all-time vs cu, 8-4 ats the last 12, while colorado is on a 2-8 ats run vs pac 12 opponents. that said, they're also 5-2 ats as home dogs of 10+, while usc is 0-3 ats as -10/more road chalk. ugh. usc.
5. #22
FLORIDA (3-1) AT KENTUCKY (4-0) -1
uk has taken the last 2 vs the gators, 3 of the last 5, and 5-0-1 ats the last 6. they haven't won 3 straight in the series since the 40's I think. uf has the better defense, the 'cats don't run the ball like they have in recent years, florida is much more battle-tested schedule wise to this point. gators.
6. CLEMSON (2-2) AT
SYRACUSE (4-0) +7
tigers had fsu on the ropes last week, then gave up a scoop/score and missed a game winning fg, which basically popped the bubble on their acc chances. I know the orange haven't exactly played a murderer's row, but 4 of the last 6 in this series have been decided by less than a td. plus (cfb nerd stat alert) 4-0 conference home dogs are 11-3-1 ats vs opponent who allow 19+/game. syracuse.
7. ARIZONA STATE (1-3) AT
CAL (2-2) -13
it's been a merry go round at qb for the sun devils, who've played 4 so far this season, trying to spark an offense that's put up just 67 pts so far. asu is 9-4 ats as road dogs while cal is just 4-11-1 ats as home chalk lately. but arizona state has a ton of injuries. cal bounces back from a blowout loss to uw.
8. #2
MICHIGAN (4-0) AT NEBRASKA (2-2) +17
2 yrs ago in lincoln, um kicked 2 fg's in the last 3:00 to pull out a 32-29 win. huskers have been better so far in '23 both running the ball and stopping the run, while the ugly hats have methodically but very unspectacularly putting away 4 mediocre foes in the big house. here's a cfb nerd stat for you... since '14, teams in their 1st road game after opening the season w/4 straight at home are 17-6 ats. here's another one; the last 14 times unl has been a home dog, they're 0-14 su/4-10 ats. here's another one; the huskers have put up 24 pts, total, vs fbs opponents so far. the wolverines's defense is 10 times better than anyone who's played nebraska to date. um
9. #24
KANSAS (4-0) AT #3 TEXAS (4-0) -16.5
ku has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series, w/rosters not as good as the one they have in '23. texas is 0-7 ats as big 12 chalk of 10+, 2-9 ats the week before the red river shootout vs ou, 1-5 ats off back/back wins. jayhawks are 5-2 ats as big 12 dogs of 10+, 7-3 ats w/big 12 revenge. upset alert. kansas.
10. #13
LSU (3-1) AT #20 OLE MISS (3-1) +2.5
lsu has dominated this series lately (6-1 su, 5-2 ats) and the rebels are 0-3 ats after taking on alabama. combined the 2 teams average 1000 yds of total offense/game, but only 1 had any semblance of a defense. bayou bengals.
11.
SOUTH CAROLINA AT #21 TENNESSEE (3-1) -12.5
a year ago the gamecocks cold-cocked the then #5 vols 63-38 as +22 underdogs, a 47 pt cover (don't see that too often). apparently bettors still don't believe, despite the underdog in this series going 10-3 ats the last 13 meetings. and b-o-w-o is just 39- ats the last 12 times they played w/revenge. mix in tennessee's suspect secondary w/usc-east qb spencer rattler currently hitting 74% of his passes? I'm picking' the chickin's
12. #11
NOTRE DAME AT #17 DUKE (3-1) +5.5
as I was walking out of nd stadium last saturday night, the 60k or so fans dressed in green were walking slowly in a state of shocked silence, while the 20k or so buckeye fans (at least a lot of them) were singing 'we don't give a damn for the whole state of michigan'... why? uh, eh, they really don't give a damn. bigger question is whether the Irish will give a damn about getting over that dramatic loss vs the upstart dukies, who imho are still getting a lot of street cred for beating clemson 28-7 in a game that was really more about the tigers' mistakes. notre dame is 10-3-1 ats of late as road chalk, and they're a lot more used to the 'gameday' hoopla than the blue devils football program is. more trends? nd is 9-0 ats vs acc opponents, 13-1 ats as favorites of -9/less. wake up the echoes...
13. #12
ALABAMA (3-1) AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (2-2) +14.5
the crimson tide's defense returned to form last week, holding mississippi to 10 pts/306 total yds. on offense? saban's 3-headed qb trilogy is still trying to find its footing. but so are the bulldogs, who are 0-5 ats as home dogs of 7+ and 1-7 ats in the first of back/back home games, which fits nicely into alabama's 19-4 ats trend in the first of back/back road games and a 5-0 ats record of late in the series. alabama.
14. #1 GEORGIA (4-0) AT
AUBURN (3-1) +14.5
speaking of 5-0 ats, that's the streak the dawgs have vs war eagle of late. at a&m auburn was awful last week, gaining just 200 yds in a 27-10 loss. uga is 19-8 ats as road chalk, and frankly they're due for a 4-quarter performance. but here's a contradictory cfb nerd stat alert; defending national champs are just 8-14-1 ats as unbeaten away favorites vs .750+ opponents. tigers are also 3-1 ats as sec home dogs of 6+. rolling the dice on a backdoor cover on the plains.
15.
WEST VIRGINIA (3-1) AT TCU (3-1) -12
since the stunning loss to colorado in the season opener, the horned frogs' offense has been hoping', putting up nearly 40 pts/game and among the leaders in total yards/game. tcu is also 6-1-1 ats as big 12 chalk of 7+. wvu starting qb garrett greene is still banged up (missed last week's upset win over texas tech) and is iffy for saturday, but the mountaineers are running for around 190/game, which I think keeps them close here.
+14.5👍
