"Oh... as I hold this cold meat, I'm reminded of Winston. God rest his soul."
"When did he pass on?"
"Eight years ago, dear, this November."
"What happened?"
"He was quite fond of the drink. It was the drink that killed him."
"How awful. He was an alcoholic?"
"No, he was hit by a Guinness truck."that movie was certainly hilarious in many spots... but it also surprised me how touching it was, a dad going to extraordinary lengths to be w/his kids, even if they didn't know it was him.
WEEK 7ALL GAMES SATURDAY
1.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN (4-1) AT JAMES MADISON (5-0) -4.5
still makes no sense to me that jmu is not bowl eligible until '24, unless there's a drought of 6 win teams allowing them to back into the post season. frankly, this might be the most attractive cfb game on the schedule in the 12 noon edt window. last yr the dukes put up 675 yds of offense yet still lost by 13 thx to being -3 in turnovers, and normally that would make me lean heavy away from gsu. but... jmu's pass defense is leaky, and the eagles' qb davis brin has been stellar, putting up 350+/game thru the air, leading gsu to the #8 spot in terms of fbs rankings for passing offense. not to mention that negative trend against 5-0 favorites. there's also this; since '88, 5-0 chalk off a bye are just 5-13 ats, 0-6 ats when off a 6+ win. ga southern.
2.
CALIFORNIA (3-3) AT #16 UTAH (4-1) -13.5
both teams come in off losses to oregon st; cal last week, utah 2 weeks ago before their bye. utes' d has carried them in the wake of qb cam rising's absence due to the knee injury he suffered vs uf in the opener. you wonder if that will matter vs a bears defense that's been a sieve... even Idaho outgained cal a month ago. plus cal may end up starting a 3rd stringer at qb saturday. that said, cal is 13-4 ats of late as road dogs, plus utah has usc and oregon on deck the next 2 weeks. since I have some catching up to do, I'll take a chance on the boys from berkeley.
3. #8
OREGON (5-0) AT #7 WASHINGTON (5-0) -3
headliner of the weekend up in seattle at one of the best college venues that doesn't get enough pub. did you know that this is the first time in nearly 20 yrs that 2 pac-12 teams have met when being 5-0/better? uw has the #1 offense in the country (569/game) behind qb michael penix; bo nix has led uo to #2 (558/game). huskies are 7-2-1 ats the last 2 seasons as home favorites, ducks are on an 8-3 ats run vs league opponents. I do think oregon has the better defense and the revenge factor after losing in eugene 37-34 a year ago. both teams were off last week; uw is 0-5 ats off a bye of late, and 2-6 ats vs pac 12 revenge. uo is 5-2 ats of late w/rest. oregon.
4. TEXAS A&M (4-2) AT #17
TENNESSEE (4-1) -3.5
aggies shut down alabama's run game last week, allowing just 23 yds, and got 6 sacks to boot yet still lost. vols have allowed just 6 qb sacks all season so far, and are rushing for 231/game. they come in off a bye after a 41-20 win over usc-east. here's an interesting nugget; tennessee has won 12 straight games in knoxville, but is 0-7 su/ats the last 7 times they've been held to 30 points/less. a&m is 0-4 ats lately as small (7/less) road underdogs, vols are the same 0-4 ats as small (7/ess) home chalk. tipping point may be bowo being 10-2 ats w/rest, combined with the tide hangover adding to the strange vibes from college station. tennessee.
5. FLORIDA (4-2) AT
SOUTH CAROLINA (2-3) -2
despite that 33-14 drubbing to uk 2 weeks ago, the gators still control their destiny in the sec east. a loss in columbia would end any hopes of atlanta. this is the 1st time since '17 that the gamecocks have been favored in the series, but their 3 losses have all come vs ranked opponents (unc, uga, tenn). and florida has been awful on the road of late (1-7 su) while usc-east has been solid at williams-brice stadium under shane beamer (12-4 su, 11-5 ats). south carolina
6. BYU (4-1) AT
TCU (3-3) -6
long ago these 2 were both part of the mountain west. now... together again in the big 12. initially I was surprised at the line here, which I thought might be more -3ish. the cougars are 9-2 ats of late vs big 12 opponents. but when you look closer at the numbers, byu beat cincinnati and arkansas despite being outgained significantly (-143 vs uc, -203 vs hogs) and they're 4-7 ats in road games. on the other side... it's been turnovers (like -4 in last week's loss to iowa st) that have plagued the frogs, who've outgained all 6 foes in '23. even w/backup qb josh hoover, who will fill in for chandler morris (knee injury) I like tcu here.
7. IOWA (5-1) AT
WISCONSIN (4-1) -10
they've been outgained by 5 of their 6 '23 foes. vs teams not in the mid-americas conference, they're averaging 18 pts and 215 yds per game. yet the hawkeyes are still 5-1 and a win in madison gives them the inside track to the big 10 west title. that is quite the cfb houdini act. only 1 iowa opponent-penn st-has scored more than 16 pts on them. saturday that rock solid defense goes up vs a uw rush attack averaging 205/game. problem for iowa imho is new starting qb deacon hill (filling in for cade mcnamara, injured 2 weeks ago) going on the road for the 1st time, and camp randall is a challenging baptism. badgers are 3-0 su/ats w/revenge in this series, they have a defense close to equal here, and they're also 8-0 ats as home chalk of 12/less w/revenge off back/back wins, but everybody knows that.
. on wisconsin
8. ARIZONA (3-3) AT #19
WASHINGTON STATE (4-1) -8
in the last 2 weeks, 'zona has had both washington and usc on the ropes before suffering close losses. even though they have triple revenge here vs wsu, and are 6-1 ats w/revenge off a loss, I'm wondering if playing 3 straight ranked opponents takes its toll here. cam ward and the cougars struggled last week vs ucla's defense in a 25-17 loss, and they're 11-1 ats on the palouse of late vs fbs opponents. washington state.
9.
AUBURN (3-2) AT #22 LSU (4-2) -11
for the 2nd straight week, we've got tigers vs tigers in the sec. lsu cost me some $$$ with that pick 6 in the last 0:30 (damn it... just take a knee!!!) to seal a 49-39 win. lsu is one of the few teams who've played 7 straight weeks w/o a bye, and auburn's run game is not the tonic for a tired team whose defense already has plenty of holes. war eagle gave georgia all they could handle 2 weeks ago, they've covered 4 straight in this series, the underdog here has covered 7 straight, the visitor in the series is 8-1 ats the last 9 games, and 6 of the last 7 between these 2 have been decided by single digits. coincidence? I think not. auburn
10.
WYOMING (5-1) AT AIR FORCE (5-0) -10.5
since '14, the cowboys have 4 outright upset wins over air force, and comes in off a nice upset win over fresno st. the flyboys have the better overall stats, but they've faced one of the easier (#132) schedules, unlike wyoming (#46). falcons are just 2-11 ats in this series of late, while the pokes are 3-1 ats getting double digits from mountain west opponents. wyoming.
11. #10 USC (6-0) AT #21
NOTRE DAME (5-2) -2.5
both teams off relatively embarrassing performances. only difference is that the trojans still won their game at arizona. is it possible that usc could actually be looking past the irish and toward utah next week, since the utes beat usc not once but twice last yr? usc's defensive woes are well chronicled, but nd qb sam hartman came crashing down to earth at louisville w/5 picks at louisville. can notre dame not just get revenge but shorten the game by running the ball down sc's throat, limiting caleb williams' chances to do magic? I think so. plus, the home team in this series is 8-1 ats the last 9 games (5-0 ats w/revenge), nd is 4-0 ats as a small home favorite, the trojans are 2-15 ats as dogs of less than 8 pts, and 2-12 ats in ooc road games. notre dame.
12. #25
MIAMI (4-1) AT #12 NORTH CAROLINA (5-0) -3.5
so where is the mojo for the canes, after literally throwing away a win vs georgia tech where they outgained the yellow jackets by 278 yds? that combo along w/unc burying syracuse last week may give miami some extra points here. the underdog in this series is 14-5 ats... plus the tar heels are just 1-14 ats off a acc game, 0-9 ats as chalk. miami.
13. MISSOURI (5-1) AT #24
KENTUCKY (5-1) -2.5
is it easier to turn the page after getting run over like uk did by uga? or losing a heartbreaker like mizzou did to lsu? I'm not a fan of uk's pass defense, which now faces a qb who's been very good. that said, the 'cats can run the ball on them w/ray davies (tigers gave up 274 on the ground to lsu). plus this is missouri's 1st true hostile road game (playing at vandy is not hostile). w/uk 7-1 su/6-2 ats in this series... kentucky.
14. #18
UCLA (4-1) AT #15 OREGON STATE (5-1) -3.5
bruins surprised me last week, beating washington st, holding them 318 yds below their season total offense average. qb d.j. uiagalelei has found a home w/the beavers, and oregon st. is 15-1 su/ats at home of late. but ucla is 12-3-1 ats as dogs off an ats win. good defenses travel, and ucla has the edge here.
15.
NC STATE (4-2) AT #17 DUKE (4-1) -3.5
dukies have had 2 weeks to stew over that loss to notre dame, where they lost starting qb riley leonard in the final seconds of the game. wolfpack have owned this series (15-3 su), have a solid defense, and w/the blue devils just 2-14 ats as acc home chalk of 10/less, and 1-5 ats off a home loss, I think the 0.5 hook here will matter. nc state.
. on wisconsin
+11👎
