"Do you want to explain why you were doing 61 in a 25 zone? One block from the victim's house. Just moments after he got shot dead."
"I was drag-racing. I'm a drag-racer."
"You were drag-racingβ¦in a Prius?"
"I don't win a lot."actually one of the funnier movies of the last decade imho. love jason bateman. as for my picks the last two weeks? they've frankly been horrible, boss.
WEEK 9ALL GAMES SATURDAY (START TIMES NOTED ARE EASTERN AS OF THIS AM)
1. 12P - #4 FLORIDA STATE (7-0) AT
WAKE FOREST (4-3) +20
by my count the noles are the only program so far in '23 to have wins over 3 ranked teams . but... a 3 td favorite over an opponent who's beaten them 3 straight? hm. fsu has a huge edge offensively, but the demon deacons are 17-7-1 ats vs ranked foes, 4-0 ats as home dogs since '19, 7-1 ats as dogs off a win, 6-1 ats vs the noles, 6-0 ats at home vs acc revenge. w/florida st just 1-4 ats as -10/more road chalk... wake forest.
2. 12P - #6 OKLAHOMA (7-0) AT
KANSAS (5-2) +10
harry's ou cost me some sawbucks last week when they struggled to put away ucf. love sooner qb dillon gabriel, and he's licking his chops vs a ku d that gave up 1200+ total yds combined to texas/okla st. jayhawks are 6-1-1 ats the last 8 in the series, but except for last yr (ou wins 52-42/-10), all those lines were north of 30 pts. still, to me the key is brent venables' run d, giving up around 120/game, vs ku's 2 solid rb's (devin neal, daniel hishaw jr) who together have gained 1100+ yds w/12 rushing td's. plus, oklahoma goes to to stillwater next week for what 'could' be the final edition of bedlam? I'll take a chance on a backdoor cover. kansas
3. 2P - CLEMSON (4-3) AT
NORTH CAROLINA STATE (4-3) +10
a couple weeks ago dabo swinney said in response to clemson fans angry w/the tigers' performance that maybe they needed to lose a few games so those folks jumped off the bandwagon. he's getting his wish... especially after losing last week to miami behind a backup qb in ot. tough to give double digits on the road when cu is just 3-6 ats in its last 9 fbs games, 5-9-1 ats off a su favorite loss, and 0-4 ats on the road off a loss as chalk. wolfpack is 9-3 ats as acc home dogs of 6+, 7-1 ats at home off a bye. nc state
4. 3:30P - #1 GEORGIA (7-0) VS
FLORIDA (5-2) +14.5
the world's largest outdoor cocktail party where uga has won 5 of the last 6, but a lot may not realize that the winner of this game controls their destiny in the sec east. a lot of talk about bulldog all-world te brock bowers being out due to his injured ankle. I think the georgia offense has enough other options to make up for that. I wonder about the uga d-line, which has been very good but not dominant like the last 2 title years. gators are 7-1 su/ats in this series when off back/back win, plus 4-1 ats as sec dogs of 8+. florida
5. 3:30P - BYU (5-2) AT #7
TEXAS (6-1) -17.5
cougars enter off a 27-14 upset win over texas tech, but that score was deceptive. 5 red raider turnovers, 1 of them a fumble returned for a td, overshadowed a byu offense that gained just 277 total yds. matter of fact, despite the 5-2/2-2 record, the mormons have been outgained by 160 yds/game on average vs big 12 opponents. even though the longhorns lost starting qb quinn ewers to injury last week, backup malik murphy looked very good, their run game behind that brooks kid should flourish vs a byu d giving up 188 yds/game to league foes. hook 'em.
6. 3:30P - #8 OREGON (6-1) AT #13
UTAH (6-1) +6.5
game of the day at the base of the wasatch mtns in salt lake city, where the loser is most likely out of the pac 12 race. if you throw out the covid year in '20, the utes have won 27 straight games at rice-eccles stadium. w/the covid year they've won 29 of 30. that's impressive. both teams have solid defenses, oregon's offense is significantly better behind qb bo nix and rb bucky irving, who has 256 yds rushing the last 2 weeks. but this bryson barnes kid that's filling in at qb for utah just had this aura in the last second win over usc. home team in this series has won/covered the last 4, and the utes are actually 4-1 ats after taking on the trojans. take good teams getting points. utah.
7. 3:30P - #20 DUKE (5-2) AT #18
LOUISVILLE (6-1) -4
when duke qb riley leonard re-injured his leg in the 3rd qtr vs florida st last week w/duke up 20-17, the blue devils gained just 35 total yds the remainder of the game in that 38-20 loss. dukies are 3-0 ats the last 3 at l'ville, but the cards are 3-0 ats at home off a bye, and 5-0 ats off a loss as road chalk. fresh off the upset win over nd, louisville still outgained pitt 444-288 but went -3 in turnovers and gave up an 86 yd pick 6 in the loss. I think louisville bounces back w/the win & cover.
8. 3:30P - MIAMI (OH) (6-2) AT
OHIO (6-2) -7
a week ago, miami took on mac rival toledo for just the 13th time. this weekend, miami plays ohio in a heated series that dates back to 1908 and 30 years ago featured an actual on-field pre-game fight between the miami players and the ou alumni band. lol. last week, the redhawks lost starting qb brett gabbart for the season due to a nasty broken leg. the bobcats have allowed under 14 pts/game so far this year. vs a backup qb, I like the stronger d. ohio
9. 7P - #21 TENNESSEE (5-2) AT
KENTUCKY (5-2) +3.5
so, how deflating was that 2nd half collapse in tuscaloosa for the vols? now they head 3 hrs north up I-75 to lexington to face a uk squad not just off 2 losses (uga, mizzou) but who has double revenge after 2 losses to tennessee, including a 44-6 whipping last yr. of course, the vols have owned (definition of owned; dominated a series over 10-20+ years, not just 2. lol) the 'cats, winning 18 of the last 20 on the road, 35 of the last 38 su and 24-7 ats the last 31. the dawgs and tigers both held kentucky under 300 total yds, and ut's d (311 yds all'd/game) is just as good. the wildcats are also 1-6 ats off a bye week, but on the positive side they're 6-1 ats as home dogs lately, 4-0 ats as home dogs w/revenge and 12-2 ats w/sec revenge. hm. tennessee is also just 1-4 ats as sec road chalk above 3 pts. hmmm. desperate times (as in me being 20+ pts behind the leaders) call for desperate measures.
kentucky.
10. 7:30P -
TROY (5-2) AT TEXAS STATE (5-2) +4.5
troy has beaten texas st in each of the last 7 yrs, but the last 2 have seen the bobcats close the gap and cover (28-31 at +7.5 in '21, 14-17 at +16.5 last season). this season tsu also has a pretty good offense (477 yds/game ave., #12 in fbs). troy's defense has been even more dominant (10 pts all'd total) the last 3 weeks in wins over army, ark. st and georgia st. winner controls their path to the sun belt ccg in the west. troy.
11. 7:30P - #3 OHIO STATE (7-0) AT
WISCONSIN (5-2) +14.5
I'm guessing the folks who visit the woody hayes facility daily to practice are paying more attention to the badgers than buckeye nation, who's obsessing over memes of harbaugh wearing gorilla-sized binoculars. bucks have won 9 straight over uw dating back to a last second 33-29 win in '11 (7-2 ats), but camp randall stadium has been a very tough venue for tosu, who hasn't won a game there by double digits in nearly a quarter century (23-7 in '00). since then, the results in madison; 30-23 in ot back in '16 (cfb playoff team), 21-12 in '12 (bucks were unbeaten that season), 18-31 in '10 (vacated big 10 shared title team), 20-17 in '08 (tied for big 10 title), 10-17 in '03 (2nd place in big 10), 19-14 in '02 (that was an unbeaten natl title team who struggled to beat an eventual 8-6 wisconsin). that's a lot of very good ohio state teams on that list. bucks are also 0-3 ats (actually 1-6 the last 7 yrs) the week after beating psu. meanwhile, the badgers are 10-0 ats (that's
10-0 ats) as home dogs getting 6+. even with the tosu defense giving up just 260 yds/10 pts per game and uw rolling out a qb in his 2nd start, this game scares me to death. being at full strength with henderson and ebbuka back would certainly help, but I'm not bucky-ing the badgers here. close.
12. 7:30P - COLORADO (4-3) AT #23
UCLA (5-2) -17
should surprise no one that cu has come back to earth after their fast start. and this bruin defense (held 6 of 7 opponents to 17/less points) will be a tough task. buffs are 1-7 ats as road dogs lately, ucla is one of just 10 teams who've outgained all of their foes so far this year, and colorado is dead last in fbs in terms of overall defense. even though the buffs' last 3 pac 12 games have been decided by 7/less, imho the cumulative effect of the season starts taking its toll vs better defenses. ucla.
13. 8P - WASHINGTON STATE (4-3) AT
ARIZONA STATE (1-6) +6.5
the cougars have the better record, but its the sun devils who've been playing more consistently better lately. asu outgained and outplayed washington last week, except for a back breaking 90 yd pick 6 that saved the huskies, 15-7. wsu has been very solid (15-6-1 ats) against the number vs pac 12 opponents the last 3 years, but in this series the home team is 9-1 ats of late. plus wash st is giving up 422 yds/game on defense, which doesn't travel well. wsu's offense is significantly better, but they've also given up 10 sacks of qb cam ward the last 3 weeks. another disturbing trend. arizona state.
14. 10:30P - #11 OREGON STATE (6-1) AT
ARIZONA (4-3) +3.5
just realized I've been leaning toward a lot of home teams this week. no change here. beavers have been one of the great under-publicized stories in cfb this season... just a 3 pt loss at wash st away from being unbeaten. away from corvallis, oregon st. has scuffled the last couple yrs, especially as road chalk in the pac 12 (2-5 ats last 7, 1-7-1 ats as away faves of 7/less). the wildcats are 5-2 ats as league home dogs, and they've outgained their pac 12 foes this year by an average of 70 yds/game. arizona.
15. 10:30P -
UNLV (6-1) AT FRESNO STATE (6-1) -9
ok, breaking the trend on the home teams, just because I'm sensitive to um's paper thin resume to this point in the season. ha. actually since their loss in ann arbor week 2, the runnin' rebels have improved game by game and are tied w/air force atop the mountain west thx to a strong, balanced offense, especially the last 4 weeks (488 yds/game, 233/game rushing). bulldogs have won the last 5 in the series, and should get starting qb mikey greene back (injured vs wyoming 3 weeks ago). neither team has a win vs a .500+ opponent this season, and therefore I think 9 is maybe 2 or 3 points too many to give. unlv.
kentucky. 
