WEEK 2"Last night you were unhinged. You were like some desperate, howling demon. You frightened me. Do it again."uh, eh, timon and pumbaa in 'lion king'? lol
6 SEP 24
BYU AT
SMU -10.5
mustangs are 5-1 ats as home chalk of late, 7-0 ats as non-conf faves in dallas, while the cougars are 3-6 ats as road dogs. smu
DUKE AT NORTHWESTERN -2.5
have to admit that the video I saw of nu's makeshift temporary hs-like stadium literally on the shore of lake michigan has some back to basics type charm for me. wildcat coach david braun is now 10-5 after replacing pat fitzgerald, which is downright amazing. but n'western is 3-11 su in the 2nd of back/back home games, and the dog has covered 7 of the 10 games in this series. slight lead to the dukies.
7 SEP 24
#3 TEXAS AT #10
MICHIGAN +7.5
defending national champs getting a td at home to a program that's won 10+ games just twice in the last decade? hm. 1st regular season matchup ever between the two historic programs. last week's results ('horns running roughshod thru colo st, um needing a 4th qtr surge to put away fresno st) is giving me some extra pts here. no doubt texas has the edge in terms of offensive firepower (I think the maize & blue are plain offensive, but I digress), last year's win in tuscaloosa was impressive, and neither of the 2 new wolverine qb's impressed at all. but... the ugly hat defense remains legit. and check out these trends; texas is 1-8 ats vs big 10 foes (0-7 ats as chalk) of late, 2-23 ats as non-conference favorites of 10/less of a win of 10+, and 1-11 ats as road chalk off a win of 50+. on the other side, um is 6-0 su/ats vs sec opponents when off a 10+ win, and get this; since 1980, defending national champs are 118-12 su in the 2nd of back/back home games and only 4 of those 12 losses have been by more than 7 pts, give me the cheaters.
ARKANSAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE -7.5
1st mtg since '80 for the cowboys and the razorbacks. osu still has ollie gordon, one of the best rb's in cfb, but they are 2-6 ats of late as ooc home faves. arkansas is 12-5 ats the last 4 years getting pts on the road. pig-sooey.
#17 KANSAS STATE AT
TULANE +10
in '22 the green wave pulled off the upset at ksu, and I think they keep this one close too. wildcats are just 1-6 ats as ooc road chalk since '07.
GEORGIA TECH AT
SYRACUSE +3
cfb nerd stat; game 3 road favorites of 8/less, who are 2-0 su/ats, are just 2-14 ats since 1990. tech is just 2-10 ats giving points away from atlanta, but their strong run attack vs a 'cuse d that ohio u rushed for 244 yds last week is definitely a balancing factor. still, ex-buckeye kyle mccord looked very comfortable, tossing for 344 yds/4 td's. rolling the dice on the orange.
PITTSBURGH AT CINCINNATI -2
last yr uc pulled off a 27-21 win at pitt as 7 pt underdogs. the panthers are 12-0 ats as road dogs w/revenge. uc has lost 6 straight at home vs fbs foes. pitt.
BAYLOR AT #11 UTAH -14
utes qb cam rising, in his 1st game back last week from injury in '23, played for 5 drives, threw 5 td passes and gained 241 yds in the air. baylor has 16 transfers on the roster, including ex-toledo qb dequan finn, who also looked good last week. utah is 14-4 ats as home chalk, 5-0-1 ats vs big 12 foes, but baylor is a strong 11-5-1 ats of late getting pts on the road. when in doubt, take the pts. baylor.
IOWA STATE AT #21 IOWA -3
only 1 time in the last 5 games in the series has it gone over the vegas pt total line, and only 2 of the last 19 matchups. as of last night that was 35.5. just an fyi. hawkeyes have won 7 of the last 8 for the cy-hawk trophy, but are just 3-9 ats in the last 12 mtgs. iowa state is 9-3 ats as ooc dogs of 13/less. both have plenty of experience returning (iowa-17 starters, isu-19). iowa is the better team, but it remains a bigger game for the cyclones. upset alert.
MICHIGAN STATE AT
MARYLAND -8.5
sparty has a good chance imho of finishing at the bottom of the 18 member big 10 this season. the terps are better, especially on offense, but the betting trends are worse; just 2-12 ats at home off a home win, including 0-7 ats in big 10 games. a year ago maryland went to east lansing and embarrassed msu 31-7. I think it's a similar result tomorrow, because crab cakes and football are what maryland does.
CALIFORNIA AT AUBURN -13.5
in '23 cal led war eagle 10-7 at the half but missed 3 fg's and lost 14-10 despite dominating in total yds, 1st downs and time of possession. game features 2 good rb's in jaydn ott for the bears and jarquez hunter for auburn. the berkeley boys are 10-0 ats as non-conference road dogs vs power 4/5 opponents, and have a great shot at making it 11 straight. university of california, proud atlantic coast conference member. lol
SOUTH CAROLINA AT
KENTUCKY -10
last week the gamecocks got outgained by old dominion but squeaked out a 23-19 win. uk comes in w/double revenge vs usc-east, is 12-6 ats as home chalk off a home win, 15-0 ats off an ooc game facing a .500+ foe and has the edge at qb w/uga transfer brock vandergriff. 10 is a lot to give, but I'm taking big blue.
#19 KANSAS AT
ILLINOIS +6
really like the illini in this one. last yr ku won 34-23 in a game that wasn't that close (jayhawks outgained illinois by 200 yds). kansas is a legit threat to win the big 12 behind qb jalon daniels, but u of I is much improved on d, and under bret bielema is 7-3 ats as home dogs of 3+ vs .750+ opponents. I-l-l...I-n-i
VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST -2
wake has won/covered 5 straight in the series... the line reflects how evenly these two match up. uva is 19-9-1 ats in first road games of a season, while the demon deacons are 15-2 su since '16 in opening 2 games of a season and 15-6 ats in the 2nd of back/back home games of late. virginia lean.
#14
TENNESSEE AT #24 NC STATE +8
duke's mayo classic in charlotte. wolfpack struggled in beating western carolina, appearing to be looking ahead to this one. nc state has won 6 straight dating back to '23, but is 0-5 ats vs sec foes, 1-5 ats in neutral site games. vols are 6-2-1 ats in neutral site games, 6-3 ats vs acc opponents and 7-0 ats as ooc favorites. both defenses are very inexperienced/young, especially in the secondary. have to take tennessee in a high scoring game.
COLORADO AT
NEBRASKA -7
ever since getting blown out by miami in the '01 season bcs title game, the huskers have been seeking that win which says 'we're back'. does beating a team who went 4-8 last yr qualify? no. does it matter if that 4-8 team is deion sanders-led colorado? maybe. it's the 73rd mtg between these 2 legacy big 8/12 rivals. a season ago 4 unl turnovers sparked a buffalo win. this yr dylan raiola at qb is a serious upgrade for nebraska. cu's sheduer sanders can be electric w/the ball in his hands, but the buffs remain suspect on both the o-line and d-line. nebraska.
BOISE STATE AT #7 OREGON -19.5
the ducks struggled on the scoreboard vs idaho, needing a late td to clinch a 24-14 win. but in the stat book? uo put up 300 more total yds, 21 more 1st downs, and less turnovers. but they have instate rival oregon st on deck, and the civil war will have some additional storylines w/the pac 12 demise. plus boise st is actually 3-0 su/ats vs oregon, 19-5-1 ats as dogs vs .750+ opponents, 5-0 ats in that scenario when getting 10+ pts, and oregon is 11-29-1 ats as double digit chalk vs opponents off a win. broncos hang around.
TEXAS TECH AT WASHINGTON STATE -2.5
red raiders are 5-1 ats as dogs of 7/less, the cougars 0-6 ats vs big 12.
MISSISSIPPI STATE AT
ARIZONA STATE -6.5
both teams dominated fcs opponents last week, but the bulldogs are really inexperienced in '24 (only 8 returning starters). despite how successful sec dogs are in ooc matchups, a shaky lean to the sun devils.
OREGON STATE AT
SAN DIEGO STATE +4
I mentioned that the beavers have arch rival oregon on deck, so some serious look ahead worries here. osu-west is just 2-8 ats of late as road chalk as well; combine that w/only 6 returning starters? aztecs are live home dogs.
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