I haven't gotten through the Week 2 compilation for a lot of reasons, but here's week three
Last Week's movie? The Addams Family
WEEK 3
If I flunk English, I'm outta here. Kiss college goodbye. I don't know what I'll do. Dad will be pissed off. Mom will be heartbroken. If I play my cards right, I get maybe a six-month grace period and then I gotta get a job, and you know what that means. That's right, they start me at the drive-up window and I gradually work my way up from shakes to burgers, and then one day my lucky break comes: the french fry guy dies and they offer me the job! But the day I'm supposed to start, some men come by in a black Lincoln Continental and tell me I can make a quick 300 just for driving a van back from Mexico! When I get out of jail I'm 36 years old. Living in a flop house. No job. No home. No upward mobility. Very few teeth. And then one day they find me, face down, talking to the gutter, clutching a bottle of paint thinner. And *why*? Because *you* wouldn't help me in English, no! You were too busy to help me! Too busy to help a drowning man!my god, I need to get out more. no clue.
FRIDAY
UNLV AT KANSAS -7
last week ku played a team (illinois) it defeated a year ago, and got beat. now here's unlv, who lost to the jayhawks in the '23 guaranteed rate bowl 49-36. ex-mizzou head coach barry odom has his rebels 7-0 ats on the road of late, but kansas counters w/a 7-1 ats as home chalk since '22. ku qb jalon daniels got picked 3 times vs the illini, 1 being returned for a td. unlv held houston to under 260 total yds a couple weeks ago, and I think they hang around. nevada-las vegas.
BATTLE OF THE WILDCATS
ARIZONA AT
KANSAS STATE -7
this was supposed to be a non-conference game, but when 'zona suddenly joined the big 12, neither team could find a suitable replacement (you see, that happens when a scheduled ooc game conflicts w/the conference realignment craze. some programs don't want to play a non-league game vs a now new league opponent, and when you don't, especially on short notice, it's virtually impossible to find a suitable replacement, since virtually all already have their suitable ooc foe lined up and don't want to replace a $$ game w/a 2nd. hence, you get another $$ game. not everyone understands that, but I digress.
. ). went against ksu last week because they've struggled recently as road chalk. the opposite is true in the little apple, where they are 12-2 ats as home faves. they also have a couple talented rb's in dylan edwards and d.j. giddens. u-a has a receiver, tetairoa mcmillan, who had 304 yds last week in a win over new mexico 2 weeks ago. but in that game, the 'cats gave up 200+ yds rushing. to new mexico. kansas state is stronger running the ball, and rules the night.
SATURDAY
ALABAMA AT WISCONSIN +16
for just the 3rd time in nearly a century, the crimson tide is in big 10 country this weekend (2011 at penn state, 1928 at camp randall in madison vs the badgers, when 'bama was a member of the southern conference). last saturday w/under 7:00 left alabama was in a dog fight w/usf, up by just 21-16, before holding the bulls on downs and then ripping off 3 td's for a deceptive 42-16 final. wisconsin is a strong 14-7 ats as 10+ home dogs, covering the last 6. but thought the tide is a slow starter in a road opener (0-5 ats the last 5 seasons), they are also 8-2 ats recently vs the big 10, covering 5 straight, and I think they can run on uw. quoting the million dollar band... yea alabama (ugh, did I really just type that? lol)
LSU AT
SOUTH CAROLINA +7
tigers make their 1st trip to columbia since '08, and like alabama, struggled for much of the game last week vs nichols st (up just 23-21 in the 3rd qtr before pulling away 44-21). gamecocks had their own troubles in week 1 (23-19 comeback win over old dominion) before shocking uk 31-7, holding the 'cats to just 183 total yds. the felines from baton rouge are much stronger on offense, but usc-east's front 7 on defense already has 10 sacks this year, a severe challenge to qb garrett nussmeier's strong air game (8 passing td's, tops in the ncaa to date). carolina is 4-1 ats as sec home dogs, 7-3 ats in the last 10 league games at williams-brice stadium, while lsu is just 3-7 ats as sec road chalk of 10/less. upset alert... south carolina.
BOSTON COLLEGE AT MISSOURI -16.5
raise your hand if you had this pegged as a matchup of 2 top 25 teams. I sure didn't. mizzou qb brady cook is supposed to get top wr's luther burden and theo wease back from injury on saturday, and if true it would benefit the tigers greatly to try and make this a track meet, because bc's controlled the line of scrimmage in each of their opening 2 games, which included that 28-13 shocker in tallahassee vs fsu. missouri's defense has yet to allow a point in blowouts over murray st./buffalo, but (cfb nerd stat alert) game 3 favorites off back/back shutouts are just 1-5 ats of late. and get this; the eagles are 5-0 ats in their last 5 games vs sec opponents. boston college makes this competitive in the 4th qtr.
TEXAS A&M AT
FLORIDA +4
how bad is the perception of the gators? texas a&m has lost its last 10 true road games. and yet the aggies are favored in gainesville. jeez. uf qb phenom d.j. lagway passed for a frosh record 456 yds in last week's win over samford, replacing an injured graham mertz. mertz is cleared to play, and coach billy napier said this week he'll play both qb's, but lagway's talent could be a differentiator. florida has lost 6 straight vs fbs opponents, but 5 of those 6 were ranked in the top 20. a&m is not a top 20 team. they;'re also 0-4 ats as road chalk. the gators are 5-0 ats of late as sec home dogs. florida.
NOTRE DAME AT
PURDUE +10.5
so how does a 28 pt favorite not only lose, but get outgained 388-286, at home, by a mac school? those are the kind of records the perennially overrated irish continue to set. no team has lost more games to unranked opponents while ranked in the top 10 themselves than notre dame, who's accomplished that feat 38 times I believe. it's the 88th meeting between the 2 northern indiana schools, but nd's 1st trip to west lafayette since '13. last yr notre dame was 3-0 ats off su losses, 5-1 ats as faves of 10+. but teams off a loss as chalk of 28+ are just 5-9 ats in their next game, the irish are just 15-30-3 ats as favorite of 13/less vs big 10 opponents, and the boilermakers are 7-1 su/ats vs foes off a su loss. until nd proves it can pass the ball, and they've yet to prove that in '24, can't see them giving this much on the road, especially at ross ade where purdue has pulled off 4 upsets over ranked opponents the last 3 years. boiler up.
WEST VIRGINIA AT
PITTSBURGH +2.5
backyard brawl in pittsburgh. a year ago wvu won a slugfest 17-6, but this one figures to be high flying. the panthers are averaging 535 yds/game, while the mountaineers have 2 backs and a qb who can all run behind a good o-line. but including last week's come from behind 28-27 win at cincinnati, pitt is now 4-0 su/ats of late as a dog w/revenge. I lean toward the home team, but am falling head over heels for the over (60.5 is number I saw last).
INDIANA AT UCLA +3
if this was the line for a game at pauley pavilion in the mid 70s I'd buy it. but my god how far has football in westwood fallen, when iu is favored on the road at the rose bowl? obviously this is now a league game, but it's actually been a long time (2015) since the bruins actually played a big 10 foe. yes, the hoosiers have put up 108 pts and 1100+ total yds vs 2 nobodies (fla int'l, w. illinois) but they do return 21 of 22 starters from '23 along w/20 transfers, and I love their new coach, curt cignetti, who was a rock star at james madison (52-10 over 6 yrs) as jmu crossed over from fcs power to fbs. the bruins are off a bye after having to come back to beat hawaii 16-14 2 weeks ago. add in the fact that there's really no juice for the home team playing in pasadena, nearly 30 miles and a 45 minute drive from the ucla campus. I think iu really has a shot here.
VANDERBILT AT GEORGIA STATE +10.5
for the 1st time in over a decade (2013), the commodores are a double digit road favorite, behind new mexico-transfer qb diego pavia, who's played really well the first 2 weeks. gsu is just 1-9 ats as dogs of 10+ and has just 10 returning starters. big rebuild for new coach dell mcgee, who headed up the run game at georgia for the last few years. his recruiting savvy figures to make a difference there in atlanta, but not yet. can't believe I'm saying this. vandy on the road to cover -10.5!!
APPALACHIAN STATE AT EAST CAROLINA +2.5
1-1 asu got butt-whipped by an angry clemson last week 66-20, yet is favored to beat 2-0 ecu in greenville. why? because they're 8-0 su/7-1 ats off a double digit loss. mountaineers.
MEMPHIS AT
FLORIDA STATE -8
in '96, memphis upset #6 tennessee who had some guy named manning playing qb. this is the tigers' biggest opportunity since then for a signature win by their football program. the noles had a week off to ruminate on their 0-2 start, after getting gashed by 2 strong run attacks w/mobile qb's. memphis does not have a running qb. plus (cfb nerd stat alert) 0-2 teams off 2 straight losses as chalk are 7-1 ats in game 3 as favorites of 7+. na, na, na-na-nahhhhhhhhhh.
RIVALRY WEEK FOR A NEW AGE
OREGON AT
OREGON STATE +16.5
from an 0-2 expected top 10 team desperate for a win, to a 2-0 top ten team desperate for a more convincing win. civil war (they don't officially call it that anymore but what the hell) #128. since '16 the home team in this series is 7-1 su/6-2 ats. the ducks have struggled to run the ball (108/game, 3.0 ypc) and just gave up 227 on the ground to boise st in a near upset. now here comes osu-west, averaging 300+/game rushing, pissed off that uo left an instate rival behind to grab the media $$ w/the big 10. here's a stat for you; since 1990 undefeated home dogs who were bowlers the previous year, off a su/ats win (21-0 last week at san diego st), playing an opponent who allows 14+/game (ducks allowing 24/game so far) are 24-7-1 ats. I'm pounding on the beavers.
WASHINGTON STATE AT
WASHINGTON -4.5
another classic pac 12 rivalry moved from november to september, and from on-campus to off-campus in seattle. uw was supposed to be in columbus this weekend to play tosu, but when the bucks cancelled the home/home series, and a few months later they joined the big 10 (hm, I'm guessing gene smith had some hints on this), it gave the huskies the chance to keep the series going w/wsu this year, which otherwise would've been cancelled to make room for a big 10 schedule. ok... the game. both teams are 2-0, making this the first time since 1936 they've played when both were undefeated. ha. washington is 12-2 su/10-4 ats vs the cougars of late, and this year I think they have a big edge on d, which should be enough to overcome the pac 12/big 10 slight. washington.
COLORADO AT
COLORADO STATE +7.5
rocky mountain showdown #90. but for the 1st time since '96, the game is in ft. collins. a year ago csu had the game won but the buffs tied it up late and stole it in double ot despite being outgained by nearly 100 yds. cu's o-line is awful. their defense is allowing 77% pass completions. the rams are 11-4-1 ats as ooc home dogs. colorado is 2-16 su/5-13 ats in its last 18 fbs road games. colorado state.
. ). went against ksu last week because they've struggled recently as road chalk. the opposite is true in the little apple, where they are 12-2 ats as home faves. they also have a couple talented rb's in dylan edwards and d.j. giddens. u-a has a receiver, tetairoa mcmillan, who had 304 yds last week in a win over new mexico 2 weeks ago. but in that game, the 'cats gave up 200+ yds rushing. to new mexico. kansas state is stronger running the ball, and rules the night.
