WEEK 7“You're engaged now?”
“Right.”
“And I respect the institution of marriage way too much to violate it. So that's why you're gonna have to do me well before the wedding.”well that sounds a lot like charlie harper.
FRIDAY
1. #17 UTAH (4-1) AT
ARIZONA STATE (4-1) +4
in the will-he or won't he category, it appears oft-injured ute qb cam rising will play tonite, which remains a tipping point for any utah game so far this yr. imho that gives asu some extra value here. the utes are just 4-16 ats of late as road favorites. sun devils stay close.
SATURDAY
2. WASHINGTON (4-2) AT
IOWA (3-2) -3
letdown potential for the huskies here after the revenge win over michigan. hawkeyes are 25-12-1 ats since '13 as single digit chalk. iowa.
3. WISCONSIN (3-2) AT
RUTGERS (4-1) -2.5
the badgers bludgeoning purdue 52-6 last week doesn't exactly mean all their issues are solved, even if they are 5-0 su vs state u of nj all time. scarlet knights lost 14-7 in a wind tunnel at nebraska last week, and they're 5-1 ats as home chalk of 3/less. rutgers.
4. #1 TEXAS (5-0) VS #16
OKLAHOMA (4-1) +14.5
120th red river shootout, but the 1st sec version of a rivalry that began in 1900. #1 longhorns come in off a bye, brimming w/confidnence and still burning from giving up a td w/0:15 left to ou in '23. texas certainly has an edge on offense, especially w/the sooner receiving corps badly banged up w/injuries. but oklahoma's d remains solid, this game has been decided by 8/less, they're 18-9 ats as a dog off a game as a dog and 8-3 ats getting 15/less. 'horns win but no cover,
5. GEORGIA TECH (4-2) AT
NORTH CAROLINA (3-3) +5
I originally thought I'd go w/the yellow jackets here, but ga tech is a horrible (as in 2-10 ats) road favorite since '14, and they're 2-9-1 ats as chalk vs revenge (they beat unc 46-42 last yr). matter of fact the wramblin' wreck has won 3 straight in the series, all as a dog. the tar heels have enough playmakers on offense to turn the tables. north carolina
6. #4 PENN STATE (5-0) AT
USC (3-2) +4.5
1st mtg since the '17 rose bowl, where the trojans eked out a thriller. usc has certainly played the tougher schedule, but the nitts are an impressive 10-1 ats of late as road chalk and have a run game that can keep qb miller moss off the field. but 5-0 favorites since '80 only cover around 40%, the coliseum is a lot different than more familiar big 10 venues, and usc coach lincoln riley excels when getting pts (7-1 ats as +3/more). I'm leaning on home teams, I see, and doing the same here. fight on.
7.
CAL (3-2) AT #22 PITTSBURGH (5-0) -3.5
when I went to bed last saturday night, cal could do no wrong vs miami, up 35-10, and was shocked sunday am to find out they lost. bears are 30-18 ats of late as dogs, 9-2 ats vs unbeaten opponents. pitt is just 1-6-1 ats off 5 straight wins, and since all of their latest 5 wins have also been covers, I think they're due for a setback, especially vs a bear defense who leads fbs w/11 picks. california.
8.
ARIZONA (3-2) AT #14 BYU (5-0) -4
byu is another team who's 5-0 su/ats. cougars d has played well but the wildcats are 4-1 ats as league dogs of 8/less, and they're off a home loss to texas tech despite outgaining them by 100 yds. mild upset w/arizona.
9. FLORIDA (3-2) AT
TENNESSEE (4-1) -15.5
billy napier's tenure in gainesville will likely be decided over the next 6 weeks, when uf faces the vols, uk, uga, texas, lsu and ol' miss. that's a gauntlet. the gators did upset tennessee last yr, but after losing to arkansas, florida has josh heiple's full attention. vols are 8-3 ats off a loss of late, and 12-4 ats as home favorites. uf has won 6 of the last 7 in the series which makes 15+ a lot to give, but their run d has not been good in '24, and that's one thing tennessee does very well. rocky top.
10.
WASHINGTON STATE (4-1) AT FRESNO STATE (3-2) +3.5
fresno has given up 450+ yds in each of its last 2 games. yes fsu is a rock star-like 10-0-1 ats as home dogs, but the cougars' offense figures to keep the trend going. speaking of trends, game 6 road teams off their 1st loss of the season have covered nearly 60% since '80. washington st.
11. OLE MISS (5-1) AT #13
LSU (4-1) +3.5
this one has the feel of an early playoff elimination game. rebels are chalk in death valley? wow. ol miss is just 4-10 ats as 4/less faves or dogs, while the tigers are 5-0 su/ats in this series when their rivals are off a su/ats win. plus lsu is 10-2 ats w/single sec revenge, and the home team is this rivalry has won 10 of the last 12. t-i-g-e-r-s-tigers!
12. #2 OHIO STATE (5-0) AT #3
OREGON (5-0) +3
bucks beat sparty 38-7 in east lansing. ducks 'only' won 31-10 vs msu at home a week later, but that score is deceiving, since uo blew 3 scoring opportunities inside the msu 10 (including 2 picks). oregon is 31-1 su at home since '19, losing only to washington a couple yrs ago, and are 10-4 ats vs top 10 foes in eugene. tosu owns the stats edge, albeit vs easier competition. my alma mater is also just 1-5 ats in unbeaten vs unbeaten matchups, and (cfb nerd stat alert) since 1980, when unbeatens meet in game 6/beyond, home dogs who scored 16+ in their previous game are 15-2 ats. oregon (hoping the buckeyes still win though-ha).
13.
VANDERBILT (3-2) AT KENTUCKY (3-2) -13.5
before the commodores knocked off #1 alabama last saturday, only 1 of the previous 135 unranked vs #1 matchups ended up in an upset. it's now 2 of the last 136, so there's not a lot of historical trends to research. lol. not a lot of respect for vandy in this line, especially since the last time they drove north to lexington vu beat uk 24-21, ending a 26 game sec losing streak. the wildcats' defense has held all 5 foes to an amazing 194 yds under their season average, but big blue's offense is woeful. to quote one of the commodores' greatest hits, this one's 'easy'. vandy.
14. IOWA STATE (5-0) AT
WEST VIRGINIA (3-2) +3
here's some irony for this matchup; ex-wvu tight end anthony becht is being inducted into the mountaineer sports hall of fame saturday night. his son, rocco, is iowa state's starting qb. so what school gear does dad wear to the game? food for thought. the cyclones are 3-0 ats of late as big 12 road chalk, 4-1 ats in the last 5 vs the 'eers, and probably has the league's best defense. still, there's that 5-0 favorite thing... country roads lead to west virginia.
15. #19
KANSAS STATE (4-1) AT COLORADO (4-1) +4.5
is it just me or is every game involving a big 12 team a less than 6b pt spread? 1st mtg since '10 when both were in the big 12, and both come in off a bye week after dominating wins. ksu is averaging 250+/game rushing, and has a d-line that can get in qb shedeur sanders' grill. the buffs are 5-0 ats off a bye, but just 5-9 ats vs big 12 opponents of late. k-state.
