Post by ETGator1 on Oct 22, 2024 10:16:04 GMT -5
It has been slowly happening for 8 years, but Pennsylvania is now accelerating in voter registrations towards becoming a red state There appears to be a big crack developing in the Democrat Midwest Big Blue Wall that they depend on so much to win elections.
It would not be a surprise to me to see Pennsylvania cross over to a majority red state by the 2026 Midterms, but definitely a red state by the 2028 presidential election.
Independents break right in Pennsylvania like in Florida, so Trump's 2-to-3-point polling lead in recent reputable polls is likely right:
Pennsylvania Voter Registrations:
currentvotestats.xls
Voter Registrations by Party through October 21, 2024 - Last day to register to vote in the 2024 election:
Democrats 3,971,607
Republicans 3,673,783
Difference 297,824
Voter Registrations by Party through October 14, 2024:
Democrats 3,958,835
Republicans 3,646,110
Difference 312,725
Voter Registrations by Party through September 30, 2024:
Democrats 3,941,347
Republicans 3,608,032
Difference 333,315
Voter Registrations by Party through September 16, 2024:
Democrats 3,925,766
Republicans 3,582,695
Difference 343,071
Voter Registrations by Party through September 9, 2024:
Democrats 3,916,743
Republicans 3,568,954
Difference 347,789
Voter Registrations by Party through August 26, 2024:
Democrats 3,908,854
Republicans 3,556,628
Difference 352,226
Voter Registrations by Party through August 12, 2024:
Democrats 3,901,732
Republicans 3,545,635
Difference 356,097
Voter Registrations by Party through June 10, 2024:
Democrats 3,892,996
Republicans 3,513,272
Difference 379,928
Voter Registrations by Party through November 7, 2023
Democrats 3,900,228
Republicans 3,453,662
Difference 446,566
Voter Registrations by Party through November 8, 2022:
Democrats 4,046,694
Republicans 3,497,126
Difference 549,568
Voter Registrations by Party through December 2020:
Democrats 4,183,292
Republicans 3,517,090
Difference 666,202
Voter Registrations by Party through December 2016:
Democrats 4,172,826
Republicans 3,280,202
Difference 892,624
Since the 2022 Midterms, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 251,744 registered voters.
Since the end of 2020, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 368,744 registered voters, Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 81,660 votes. Harris isn't doing as well in Pennsylvania as Biden did in 2020 so you can see the writing on the wall for a 2024 Trump win. I hope Trump's coattail is long enough to bring in a republican senator too.
Since the end of 2016, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 594,800 registered voters.
It would not be a surprise to me to see Pennsylvania cross over to a majority red state by the 2026 Midterms, but definitely a red state by the 2028 presidential election.
Independents break right in Pennsylvania like in Florida, so Trump's 2-to-3-point polling lead in recent reputable polls is likely right:
Pennsylvania Voter Registrations:
currentvotestats.xls
Voter Registrations by Party through October 21, 2024 - Last day to register to vote in the 2024 election:
Democrats 3,971,607
Republicans 3,673,783
Difference 297,824
Voter Registrations by Party through October 14, 2024:
Democrats 3,958,835
Republicans 3,646,110
Difference 312,725
Voter Registrations by Party through September 30, 2024:
Democrats 3,941,347
Republicans 3,608,032
Difference 333,315
Voter Registrations by Party through September 16, 2024:
Democrats 3,925,766
Republicans 3,582,695
Difference 343,071
Voter Registrations by Party through September 9, 2024:
Democrats 3,916,743
Republicans 3,568,954
Difference 347,789
Voter Registrations by Party through August 26, 2024:
Democrats 3,908,854
Republicans 3,556,628
Difference 352,226
Voter Registrations by Party through August 12, 2024:
Democrats 3,901,732
Republicans 3,545,635
Difference 356,097
Voter Registrations by Party through June 10, 2024:
Democrats 3,892,996
Republicans 3,513,272
Difference 379,928
Voter Registrations by Party through November 7, 2023
Democrats 3,900,228
Republicans 3,453,662
Difference 446,566
Voter Registrations by Party through November 8, 2022:
Democrats 4,046,694
Republicans 3,497,126
Difference 549,568
Voter Registrations by Party through December 2020:
Democrats 4,183,292
Republicans 3,517,090
Difference 666,202
Voter Registrations by Party through December 2016:
Democrats 4,172,826
Republicans 3,280,202
Difference 892,624
Since the 2022 Midterms, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 251,744 registered voters.
Since the end of 2020, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 368,744 registered voters, Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by 81,660 votes. Harris isn't doing as well in Pennsylvania as Biden did in 2020 so you can see the writing on the wall for a 2024 Trump win. I hope Trump's coattail is long enough to bring in a republican senator too.
Since the end of 2016, there has been a shift down in the difference between democrats and republicans by 594,800 registered voters.
